PINNACLE TIP #17
MATCH: NISHIKORI (JAPAN) V CILIC (CROATIA)
EVENT: ATP JAPAN
START TIME: 06:00 UK TIME
TIP: BACK NISHIKORI @1.43, LAY @1.14
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 5% TOTAL (4% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
Both players have won 8 of their previous 10 matches. While Cilic lost only to eventual champ Djokovic at the recent US Open, Nishikori had a heartbreaking loss to Benoit Paire in an epic 5 setter.
Cilic possesses a good amount of variety in his game, but in all honesty, it cannot be compared to Nishikori’s brutal power and speed. To make it worse for the Croatian, this match is played in front of Nishi’s home fans in Japan where he has already won the title twice in 2012 and 2014.
On paper, I must admit this looks like an obvious trade to go for Nishikori!
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
A third set cannot be completely ignored but my general prediction would be a comfortable 2 set win for the home favourite Nishikori.
High stakes can be considered here as I feel quite confident about this trade. No stop losses are suggested and I don’t recommend delaying the trade. Simply back on Nishikori at the starting price and lay him at 1.14.
Our potential profit is 25% of the stake. I feel that’s a decent enough profit for a confident bet.
Worst case scenario:
I cannot see a worst case scenario unfolding today as Nishi usually plays his best in Japan. However, assuming he does falter early on, my recommendation is to back him at odds of 2 with your remaining 1%.
Assuming Nishi fights back from a set down and if you happen to fetch close to 25% profit before the 3rd set begins, I suggest trading out the market.
For those who are happy with at least 10% profit for this match, you can trade out at a lay price of 1.3 – 1.33 instead of 1.14.
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
Nishi had a few chances very early on in the match to break Cilic. Once he missed them, the Croatian took advantage of a poor service game from the Nishi to win the first set 6-3.
There were no more freebies given by Nishi as he served pretty well in the 2nd set and broke Cilic towards the end to win it 7-5. I didn’t get to trade the match, but our target odds were probably hit at this point.
Still, even if you chose to leave the trade on for the 3rd set it was always going to go in favour of Kei as he was by far the better player and ended up winning it 6-3.
Another successful pinnacle tip to extend our win streak…if you want to get involved, you can get a discounted trial at http://pinnacletradingtips.com/