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Unfortunately, tips are available to members only. Members Login here.
Not a member but want access?? Only €10 a month!! Click here.
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I have decided to write this article for the sole reason of what happened to our recent BH strategies on the 16th June. The results of the tips were indeed right but the strategies failed. The matches concerned were as follows:
Match 1: Federer v Youzhny
The tip here was to BH on Roger@1.14 and lay @1.04 (10 decimals below). Normally I wouldn’t have put BH on such a low odds match but the main reason was that it was Roger Federer on Grass and also his opponent was Youzhny who had played him 9 times before this match and took only ’1 SET’ of him!! Hence there were enough reasons to put this tip as BH.
Unfortunately for trading, Youzhny hung in there for most of the first set and won it on a tie-break. So the question is how should you have traded this match?
First thing’s first, for me you should have your money on Federer’s side. Let’s assume you put 10 units on Roger to win 1.4 by backing him @1.14. As the match goes on you are watching Youzhny holding his serves. At this point what is most important to realise is that the market will reflect slightly. Meaning, the odds on Federer will increase slightly than the original odds even after he holds his service game. So basically, that’s an indication of something negative against us. The next question is about our stakes. For low stakes, that risk can be more or less neglected as its a best of 3 match. But for Heavy stakes we cannot neglect it. Indeed it’s safer to opt out of the trade completely before the tie-break as ONE point can change the whole market in a matter of SECONDS. Hence, the reasonable thing to do is [click to continue…]
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Monday’s Tips:
All times are UK/Irish and are subject to change:
1. 12:15 – Zemlja v Fognini:
Lay Fognini@1.85, back@2.1
2. 13:30 – Harrison v Mathieu
Lay Harrison@1.82, back@2.2
3. 14:45 – Verdasco v Dolgopolov
Back Dolgo@1.8, lay@1.5
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1. Vekic v Hantuchova: Successful early on
BACK HEAVY:
2. Murray v Cilic: Unsuccessful (Unfortunately after breaking Cilic
first Murray played sloppy and at one point there was a big injury
concern. Nevertheless the tip was right it in the end as Murray won
rather comfortably in the 3rd)
3. Federer v Youzhny: Unsuccessful (I’ve to put this as unsuccessful
as yet again Roger loses the first set like yesterday to come back and
win comfortably!)
Overall: 1 / 3 Successful
This stat yet again looks bad but both BH match tips came out to be
true at the end of the day. Credit to Youzhny for playing really well
but I was fairly confident on both Roger and Murray winning today
which did happen, unfortunately both lost the first set making our
strategy fail. Again, delaying the match would have given you much
better odds for both matches.
For a detailed explanation on how to deal with these situations please read my article on Minimising Risks for Back Heavy matches
Good luck for later..
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