Tennis Trading League Blog

Betfair Tennis Trading Tips ATP/WTA Thursday 20th June 2013

Patrick Ross — Thu, 20 Jun 2013 07:20:24 +0000

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Betfair Tennis Trading Tips Results ATP/WTA 19th June

Patrick Ross — Thu, 20 Jun 2013 04:24:30 +0000

1. Benneteau v Tomic: Unsuccessful

2. Ramos v Verdasco: Successful

3. Klizan v Fognini: Successful

4. Seppi v Harrison: Unsuccessful (Seppi won this in 3 but Harrison
started well)

5. Stepanek v Kohli: Unsuccessful

6. Bartoli v Li: Not considered

7. Safarova v Stosur: Successful early on

8. Wickmayer v Kvitova: Successful

9. Kerber v Makarova: Successful early on

10. Vesnina v Watson: Successful (A very good trading match!)

11. Robson v Wozniacki: Successful

12. Donskoy v Haase: Successful (This was successful in the first set
eventhough Haase didn’t break due to numerous opportunities. The
number of decimals targeted were easily achievable here eventhough
Haase lost!)

13. Mahut v Kuznetsov: Successful easily

14. Garcia Lopez v Brands: Successful

15. Voegele v Tsurenko: Successful

16. Medina v Cibulkova: Successful

17. Muguruza v Davis: Successful

18. Vinci v Halep: Unsuccessful (shocking scoreline here!)

Overall: 17 matches considered

13 / 17 Successful = 76%

Not a bad day at all for the stats..Good luck for tomorrow!

Betfair Tennis Trading Tips ATP/WTA Wed 19th June

Patrick Ross — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 07:11:34 +0000

Wednesday’s Tips:

All times are UK/Irish and are subject to change:

AEGON ATP:

1. 10:00 – Benneteau v Tomic

Back Benneteau@1.77, lay@1.45

2. 11:00 – Ramos v Verdasco

Back Verdasco@1.5, lay@1.3

3. 12:15 – Klizan v Fognini

Lay Fognini@1.93 , back@2.2

4. 13:30 – Seppi v Harrison

Back Seppi@1.71, back@1.5

5. 13:30 – Stepanek v Kohli

Back Kohli@1.88, lay@1.5

(Likely to be a 3 setter so consider laying Kohli at low odds)

AEGON WTA:

6. 11:00 – Bartoli v Li

Back Li@1.47, lay@1.2

(Worth considering for BH)

7. 11:00 – Safarova v Stosur

Back Stosur@1.55, lay@1.3

8. 14:00 – Wickmayer v Kvitova

Back Kvitova@1.33, lay@1.15

9. 14:45 – Kerber v Makarova

Back Kerber@1.73, lay@1.5

(Likely 3 setter here!)

10. 14:45 – Vesnina v Watson

Back Vesnina@1.7, lay@1.45

11. 15:15 – Robson v Wozniacki

Back Wozniacki@1.9, lay@1.6

TOPSHELF ATP:

12. 10:00 – Donskoy v Haase

Back Haase@1.61, lay@1.4

(Worth considering for BH)

13. 10:00 – Mahut v Kuznetsov

Back Mahut@1.42, lay@1.2

14. 11:15 – Garcia Lopez v Brands

Lay Brands@1.84, back@2.1

TOPSHELF WTA:

15. 10:00 – Voegele v Tsurenko

Lay Voegele@1.74, back@2

16. 11:15 – Medina v Cibulkova

Lay Cibulkova@1.7, back@2

17. 11:30 – Muguruza v Davis

Back Muguruza@1.6, lay@1.4

18. 15:30 – Vinci v Halep

Back Vinci@1.41, lay@1.2

Hot tips: Benneteau, Seppi, Li, Stosur, Wozniacki, Haase and Muguruza!

Good luck!

Help and Advice: The Best Way to Use Tips From Tennis Trading League

Help and Advice: What Do The Stats Say?

Help and Advice: In-Depth Trading

Help and Advice: Heavy Favourite in the Red Zone

Help and Advice: Greening Out

Help and Advice: The Golden Green

Help and Advice: Dealing with a Bad Streak

Help and Advice: Multiple Trades during a Match

Help and Advice: What should you do if your player gets injured in a tennis match that you’re trading? Find out here…

Help and advice: What do you do if a Back Heavy Tip isn’t going your way? Find out here…

Help and Advice: Dangers of chasing an in-form player

Some folks have asked why I call the tips ‘Betfair Tennis Trading Tips’ and have asked if the tips can be used on other betting exchanges. I use Betfair for all my trading because Betfair has the best liquidity. All of my prices are taken from Betfair.
Betfair Tennis Trading gives you the best opportunities to make profits. You can use the trading tips on other sites – there may be small price differences – but these should not matter. If you decide to use a site other that Betfair for trading, make sure that the liquidity is there.
If you’re unsure about what liquidity is required, see question 17 on my FAQ section at http://tennis-trading-league.com/faq/

Betfair Tennis Trading Tips ATP/WTA Tues 18th June

Patrick Ross — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 07:17:13 +0000

Tuesday’s Tips:

All times are UK/Irish and are subject to change:

TOPSHELF WTA:

1. 10:00 – Vinci v Kanepi:

Lay Vinci@1.65, back@1.8

(If Vinci loses the first set, lay Kanepi as this could be a 3 setter!)

2. 11:15 – Hantuchova v Tsurenko

Back Hantu@1.47, lay@1.25

3. 13:30 – Schiavone v Flipkens

Lay Flipkens@1.75, back@2

TOPSHELF ATP:

4. 10:00 – Chardy v Pouille

Lay Chardy@1.34, back@1.55

5. 10:00 – Llodra v Paire

Back Llodra@1.77, lay@1.5

(If Paire wins first set, lay him!)

6. 10:00 – Lu v Vasselin

Lay Vasselin@1.51, back@1.8

7. 11:30 – Ferrer v Malisse

Back Ferrer@1.2, lay@1.08

8. 12:15 – Mahut v Berankis

Lay Mahut @1.6, back@1.85

9. 12:30 – Hernych v Goffin

Back Hernych@1.88, lay@1.6

10. 15:30 – Sijsling v Wawrinka

Wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be the match of the day!

First of all, be bold in laying Wawrinka at low odds.

Back @1.49 on Wawrinka, lay@1.2

AEGON ATP:

11. 11:00 – Tomic v Ward

Lay Tomic@1.44, back@1.7

12. 12:15 – Nieminen v Lopez

Lay Lopez@1.6, back@1.85

13. 13:30 – Istomin v Dodig

Back Dodig@1.95, lay@1.5

14. 14:45 – Stepanek v Matosevic

Back Stepanek@1.52, lay@1.25

15. 16:00 – Anderson v Benneteau

Back Anderson@1.71, lay@1.5

AEGON WTA:

16. 11:00 – Konta v Hsieh :

Lay Hsieh@1.7, back@2

(Worth considering for BH as I feel Konta odds are too high!!)

17. 11:00 – Paszek v Wozniacki

Back Wozniacki@1.42, lay@1.25

18. 12:15 – Niculescu v Kvitova

Back Kvitova@1.23, lay@1.08

19. 13:30 – Stosur v Petrova

Back Petrova@1.9, lay@1.5

20. 14:45 – Radwanska v Hampton

Back Radwa@1.32, lay@1.15

Consider laying Radwa at very low odds in the 1.04 – 1.08 range!

Good luck in all the matches!

Help and Advice: The Best Way to Use Tips From Tennis Trading League

Help and Advice: Minimising Risk in BH Matches

Help and Advice: What Do The Stats Say?

Help and Advice: In-Depth Trading

Help and Advice: Heavy Favourite in the Red Zone

Help and Advice: Greening Out

Help and Advice: The Golden Green

Help and Advice: Dealing with a Bad Streak

Help and Advice: Multiple Trades during a Match

Help and Advice: What should you do if your player gets injured in a tennis match that you’re trading? Find out here…

Help and advice: What do you do if a Back Heavy Tip isn’t going your way? Find out here…

Help and Advice: Dangers of chasing an in-form player

Some folks have asked why I call the tips ‘Betfair Tennis Trading Tips’ and have asked if the tips can be used on other betting exchanges. I use Betfair for all my trading because Betfair has the best liquidity. All of my prices are taken from Betfair.
Betfair Tennis Trading gives you the best opportunities to make profits. You can use the trading tips on other sites – there may be small price differences – but these should not matter. If you decide to use a site other that Betfair for trading, make sure that the liquidity is there.
If you’re unsure about what liquidity is required, see question 17 on my FAQ section at http://tennis-trading-league.com/faq/

Tennis Trading Advice: Minimising risks for Back Heavy (BH) matches

Patrick Ross — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 21:12:58 +0000

I have decided to write this article for the sole reason of what happened to our recent BH strategies on the 16th June. The results of the tips were indeed right but the strategies failed. The matches concerned were as follows:

ATP Halle Final: Federer v Youzhny

ATP Queens Final: Cilic v Murray

Match 1: Federer v Youzhny

The tip here was to BH on Roger@1.14 and lay @1.04 (10 decimals below). Normally I wouldn’t have put BH on such a low odds match but the main reason was that it was Roger Federer on Grass and also his opponent was Youzhny who had played him 9 times before this match and took only ’1 SET’ of him!! Hence there were enough reasons to put this tip as BH.

Unfortunately for trading, Youzhny hung in there for most of the first set and won it on a tie-break. So the question is how should you have traded this match?

First thing’s first, for me you should have your money on Federer’s side. Let’s assume you put 10 units on Roger to win 1.4 by backing him @1.14. As the match goes on you are watching Youzhny holding his serves. At this point what is most important to realise is that the market will reflect slightly. Meaning, the odds on Federer will increase slightly than the original odds even after he holds his service game. So basically, that’s an indication of something negative against us. The next question is about our stakes. For low stakes, that risk can be more or less neglected as its a best of 3 match. But for Heavy stakes we cannot neglect it. Indeed it’s safer to opt out of the trade completely before the tie-break as ONE point can change the whole market in a matter of SECONDS. Hence, the reasonable thing to do is trade out before the tie-break starts. Indeed you would have accumulated a slight loss here but that should be accepted! The next bit is to watch the tie-break closely. It’s worth pointing out also that if our player is losing by a few points ‘EARLY’ in the tie break, its definitely worth BACKING HIM big. That is a very calculated risk that you should be bold in taking.

The key point from the above tip is that we are trading out before the tie-break and choosing to wait out the first set. This is the best way to deal with the situation. The only downfall of this situation is Federer winning the tie-break easily which would mean his odds would have definitely gone much lower. But that’s something we have to accept as a trader. What you shouldn’t do is, assume that Federer will win the set easily because we have a lot of money on the market, which cannot be ignored!!

In the match obviously, Youzhny won the tie-break by 7-5 , a rather close one which definitely made Roger’s odds shoot up. At this time, however, you should be extremely quick in backing Roger with a big stake. The whole point of waiting out the first set was just for this moment; to back Roger heavy on a much higher odds. The initial tip by me on ‘Roger very unlikely to lose’ should be a reminder and also an encouraging factor for us to back him here. In reality, the odds after going slightly higher than the price at the start of the 2nd set , pretty much never went higher further. The market was completely in favour of Roger since then and he won the match comfortably.

The toughest part of this particular trade is TRADING OUT in the first set! People have this gut feeling embedded in them that makes them to let the trade run in the tie-break which is A HUGE MISTAKE. It doesn’t matter how confident you are, you’ve to trade it out if its a BIG STAKED MATCH! Like I said earlier, for minimal stakes, you can ignore it if you wish but definitely not for BH!

Match 2: Murray v Cilic

Unlike the Federer match which went to a tie-break, this one had more weird scenarios and was much harder to trade!

The initial odds on Murray was around 1.2 and he started well by breaking Cilic. For me, I would have easily assumed, that was pretty much game set and match. His odds definitely hit 1.1 at this stage missing our target price of 1.06 by 4 decimals. However what followed from then on was disastrous.

First, Murray started serving poorly and Cilic broke him back. There was definitely an indication here that Cilic’s points in rallies were much more confident looking than his early games. This was a time hence to trade out this market. As soon as you spot something different in the match, don’t think, trade the market out and see what follows.

But this was not the worst problem. In one of the later games of the first set Murray had a leg injury that made things worse. Indeed that one injury proved to be disastrous as the market immediately hit 1.8 price. At this time, you simply have to trade out if you hadn’t done earlier on as no injuries can be taken easily in Tennis. Murray however seemed to get better as time went on but losing the first set created more problems. Very interestingly I was surprised that Murray’s odds never hit even 2 at any point in this match, such was the confidence on Murray by the traders. Indeed, it proved to be right. Market never went up and Murray after taking the second set was pretty much in control and won the third rather easily.

One of the questions that really come in here is about ‘when should you get back into the trade?’. I would say, once you watch Murray playing OK, it’s worth putting money on him to at least get his side in some sort of profit. However this match was an injury ridden match so personally after starting the match with BH, I would have opted to decrease my stakes but making sure that the Murray side of the market would be in some sort of green. That’s the best I could have hoped for and that is my best suggestion.

No injury ridden matches can be taken lightly as you’ve heard me point out many a time before and this one is no exception. The best you could do was making the favourite side with as little loss as possible.

The summary of these two matches are really about when to trade out and trade back in. I hope I gave you guys a clue as to how to approach that right timing! Also it is very important to remember that you should be watching the LIVE STREAM of BH matches, as without it, things can easily turn from ugly to disastrous!

I am happy to hear from some of you about delaying the trades and beating out the market in the end which I am very pleased about. I hope more and more traders do that and realise their true potential from such experiences.

Good luck and thanks a lot for reading…

Betfair Tennis Trading Tips ATP/WTA Monday 17th June 2013

Patrick Ross — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 07:05:45 +0000

Monday’s Tips:

All times are UK/Irish and are subject to change:

AEGON International ATP:

1. 12:15 – Zemlja v Fognini:

Lay Fognini@1.85, back@2.1

2. 13:30 – Harrison v Mathieu

Lay Harrison@1.82, back@2.2

3. 14:45 – Verdasco v Dolgopolov

Back Dolgo@1.8, lay@1.5

Aegon International WTA:

4. 11:00 – Pennetta v Bartoli

Back Bartoli@1.44, lay@1.25

5. 12:15 – Lepchenko v Watson

Back Lepchenko@1.9, lay@1.55

6. 12:15 – McHale v Wickmayer

Lay Wickmayer@1.75, back@2

TOPSHELF ATP:

7. 10:00 – Kuznetsov v Gimeno Traver

Lay Kuznetsov@1.45, back@1.7

8. 10:00 – Hanescu v Garcia Lopez

Lay Garcia Lopez@1.74, back@2

(can be considered for BH provided there is liquidity!)

9. 10:00 – Lorenzi v de Bakker

Back De Bakker@1.42, lay@1.25

TOPSHELF WTA:

10. 10:00 – Hantuchova v Tsurenko

Back Hantu@1.45, lay@1.2

11. 10:00 – Hlavackova v Davis

Lay Hlavackova@1.4, back@1.65

12. 10:00 – Putinsteva v Voegele

Lay Putinsteva@1.85, back@2.2

(worth considering for BH)

13. 11:30 – Arvidsson v Morita

Lay Morita@1.64, back@1.85

14. 12:30 – Pironkova v Mladenovic

Back Mladenovic@1.85, lay@1.55

Likely 3 setter here…

15. 12:45 – Barthel v Muguruza

Back Barthel@1.7, lay@1.45

Worth laying Barthel if she wins the first set easily!

16. 15:30 – Rybarikova v Rus

Fairly confident Rybarikova will thrash Rus here !

Back Rybarikova@1.25, lay@1.08

I’ve given a few matches worth considering for BH. Please do not stake
heavy if there is no liquidity in the markets as that can be pretty risky…

Hot tips: Mathieu, Dolgopolov, Lepchenko, Voegele, Mladenovic and Rybarikova

Good luck for all matches!

Help and Advice: The Best Way to Use Tips From Tennis Trading League

Help and Advice: What Do The Stats Say?

Help and Advice: In-Depth Trading

Help and Advice: Heavy Favourite in the Red Zone

Help and Advice: Greening Out

Help and Advice: The Golden Green

Help and Advice: Dealing with a Bad Streak

Help and Advice: Multiple Trades during a Match

Help and Advice: What should you do if your player gets injured in a tennis match that you’re trading? Find out here…

Help and advice: What do you do if a Back Heavy Tip isn’t going your way? Find out here…

Help and Advice: Dangers of chasing an in-form player

Some folks have asked why I call the tips ‘Betfair Tennis Trading Tips’ and have asked if the tips can be used on other betting exchanges. I use Betfair for all my trading because Betfair has the best liquidity. All of my prices are taken from Betfair.
Betfair Tennis Trading gives you the best opportunities to make profits. You can use the trading tips on other sites – there may be small price differences – but these should not matter. If you decide to use a site other that Betfair for trading, make sure that the liquidity is there.
If you’re unsure about what liquidity is required, see question 17 on my FAQ section at http://tennis-trading-league.com/faq/

Betfair Tennis Trading Tips Results WTA/ATP 16th June

Patrick Ross — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 04:13:28 +0000

1. Vekic v Hantuchova: Successful early on

BACK HEAVY:

2. Murray v Cilic: Unsuccessful (Unfortunately after breaking Cilic
first Murray played sloppy and at one point there was a big injury
concern. Nevertheless the tip was right it in the end as Murray won
rather comfortably in the 3rd)

3. Federer v Youzhny: Unsuccessful (I’ve to put this as unsuccessful
as yet again Roger loses the first set like yesterday to come back and
win comfortably!)

Overall: 1 / 3 Successful

This stat yet again looks bad but both BH match tips came out to be
true at the end of the day. Credit to Youzhny for playing really well
but I was fairly confident on both Roger and Murray winning today
which did happen, unfortunately both lost the first set making our
strategy fail. Again, delaying the match would have given you much
better odds for both matches.

For a detailed explanation on how to deal with these situations please read my article on Minimising Risks for Back Heavy matches

Good luck for later..

Betfair Tennis Trading Tips Results 15th June 2013

Patrick Ross — Sun, 16 Jun 2013 04:05:53 +0000

1. Cilic v Hewitt: Unsuccessful (Hewitt unlike yesterday, served
terribly. Delayed trading would have kept you out of trouble!)

2. Rybarikova v Vekic: Successful (This did hit our target
early on. Another match where delayed trading would have easily got
you some good money!)

3. Federer v Haas: Unsuccessful (Rather unfortunate here as the tip on
Roger was right in the end. However, he started poor meaning the
strategy failed early on.)

4. Youzhny v Gasquet: Unsuccessful (This was a real shock!)

BACK HEAVY

5. Halep v Petkovic: Unsuccessful (Unfortunately this went against us
as Petkovic didn’t take any of her chances.
There’s a key stat here that tells the moral of the story :

Break Point Conversions: Halep -> 3 / 4 = 75% , Petkovic -> 0 / 8 = 0%

This one stat has hurt us big. Petkovic for me definitely had enough
chances to dominate this match but she never took any! This was
definitely a disappointment in the end!

6. Murray v Tsonga: Unsuccessful (The tipped player
again won but only after losing the first set. Delaying and trading
would have helped here. Also worth noting that I was fairly confident
on Murray going through today which was pointed out. Hence, even if
the strategy failed early on, by the end of the match, you should have
profited, if your money was in minimal loss after trading out, on the
Murray side)

This definitely was one of our worst days as the players I tipped had
to fight back after losing the first set including Roger Federer.

Overall 1 / 6 = 16% which is definitely our worst day so far.

However it is definitely worth pointing out that at least 4 out of the 6
tips would have gone in your favour had you delayed trading. The two
matches that went against us completely was Youzhny and Halep.
Every other match was tradable and indeed profitable through delaying!

Not the best of days but we have fought back well before and I expect
us to do so again!

Good luck!