Free Trading strategies/tips for ATP and WTA 12/02/13

tennis

BH = Back Heavy, LL = Lay Low

With the above in mind, I give you tips/strategies for today’s matches:

ATP Rotterdam:

1. Youzhny v Bakker:

Rotterdam is a slow court hence favour players that like chasing
balls. Youzhny eventhough he lost last week to a tight 3 setter
against the eventual winner, I expect him to win this easily. The only
advantage I would give de Bakker is Home Court which may not mean
anything really!

Strategy: BH Youzhny @1.22, LL @1.1

2. Gulbis v Haase

Gulbis the favourite here at 1.77. I feel that price is wrong! Haase
should know the home court better so I think this should be a 50/50
match. Hence lay Gulbis.

Strategy: Lay Gulbis at the start for about 30 to 40. Back at a price
near 1.95. This should happen very likely. You can lay heavy if you
wish. The safer way is to lay low though. Do as you feel personally!

3. Benneteau vs Llodra:

Unlike last week, this week I feel Llodra will lose early. This court
is rather slow and Llodra’s serve won’t help him much when he plays
good players. Benneteau is a decent player who lost to Gasquet in 3
sets last week. Hence Back him.

Strategy: Back Benneteau for 100 at 1.85. Lay around 1.6.

4. Monfils vs Del Potro

Odds are 1.25 on Del Potro. I feel that should be slightly more maybe
in the 1.35 range at least. Nevertheless I expect Del Potro to win!

Strategy: Rather than backing heavy here which could be risky at the
start, I would say scalping against Del Potro’s service games maybe
more rewarding. So everytime Del Po serves, lay him. I feel Monfils
will do well in this court provided his serve works.

However, do not be in a seriously red position on Del Potro as that is
dangerous especially in the first set as he may very well run away
with the match!

For me Del Potro is a slow starter hence the above scalping strategy
against his serves may prove right!

5. Nieminen vs Goffin:

1.69 on Nieminen for me sounds like free money. I could be wrong here
but I definitely feel that odds will shoot down. Nieminen is an
excellent hard court player and I feel this court will help his serves
better than Goffin’s!

Strategy: BH on Nieminen @1.69, LL @ 1.45

Brazil Open:

1. Fognini vs Pella

This is an excellent market. Simply because I rate Pella very high!
Yea that’s right, watch out for this guy in the future. GUIDO PELLA is
going to be a top 20 player soon. I predict it!

Strategy: I feel this will go towards Pella at some stage. Fognini is
a great clay court player make no mistake but playing at his home I am
giving Pella a decent chance here. I feel he will win atleast a set.
Hence lay Fognini at 1.45 for a 100 or 200 units and back him around
2.

If you want you can wait till the end of the first set. If Fognini
wins the first, lay him heavy again! This maybe a huge profitable
market and an excellent match to trade!

2. Kuznetsov v Berlocq:

Berlocq was pretty decent in the last clay court event. I expect him
to continue that form here.

Strategy: BH on Berlocq @1.35, LL @ 1.2

3. G.Garcia vs A. Ramos

I have always liked the tall Garcia Lopez as a player. Always works
hard for each shot and when he is on fire he can beat some really good
players. Having said that Ramos is pretty much on fire. He almost beat
Zeballos the winner against Nadal last week!

Strategy: Back Ramos (not heavy) @1.4, lay around 1.3.

Don’t go too heavy in this match as I don’t feel too confident on the
result. This could be a 3 setter but still in Ramos’ favour!

4. Gimeno vs Volandri

Strategy: Back Gimeno heavy at 1.73. I think that price is free money!
This could be a 2 setter in Gimeno’s favour. Lay low @ 1.4 (it could
go lower after the first set)!

5. Clezar vs Belucci

I dont know anything about Clezar here but Belucci is a great clay
courter. I would tip Belucci to win this simply for the reason he is
playing at home and he is a good player. But don’t take my word for
it. If there is someone you don’t know, you shouldnt really trade at
all. Hence, take it as a tip but with warning 😉

QATAR OPEN WTA:

1. Hlavackova vs Petrova

Petrova for me could be one of the best players in women’s tennis who
have never won a grand slam! I have always rated her high but she has
let me down in big matches every time.
This however isn’t a big match. I expect her price to go down.

Strategy: Back (not heavy) at 1.23 , lay around 1.1.

I am insisting on not heavy as women’s tennis’ serve statistics is
honestly pathetic (no offense to any ladies). But its the truth. It
pretty much means, you cannot expect anyone really to hold their serve
unless you are Serena!

Still I expect the above strategy to hold true for today!

2. Dushevina vs Mc Hale:

Another good Russian player here in Dushevina. But I expect Mc Hale to
win this. This could be a 3 setter. But I definitely expect Mc Hale to
start off well. First set winner is a good bet on Mc Hale personally

Trading wise, the strategy is simply to back her (heavy if you wish) @
1.82. Lay at 1.5! This maybe even a 2 set win in Mc Hale’s favour!

3. Danilidou vs Safarova:

Danilidou is a very under rated player on hard courts. She has pretty
much a lot in her game. However Safarova was pretty much solid in the
fed cup. Only way I think she will lose is if she is tired after the
Fed cup!

Strategy: You can lay Safarova at the start here @1.32 and back @
1.45. Or you can wait entirely for the first set to finish and then
back the loser of the first set! Don’t back heavy in this match! Also
do not be overly red in the Safarova side as she may indeed win in 2
sets!

4. Suarez vs Makarova:

An excellent trading market here. I feel two strong players. Odds are
in Makarova’s favour at 1.77 and that could be right. I feel if
Makarova is to lose it will be a 3 setter. If Suarez is to lose it
could be a 2 setter. Hence the following strategy:

Strategy: Back Makarova heavy at the start at 1.77. Lay at 1.5

5. Schiavone vs Bartoli

Bartoli’s recent form has been pretty good. Her losses were to rather
tough opponents and her game hasn’t been bad.

I expect her to go through this match.

Strategy: Back Bartoli (not heavy) at 1.29, lay at 1.15

6. Zakopalova vs Lepchenko:

Lepchenko has been on fire in the Fed cup beating both Errani and
Vinci. If she can produce that form here this match can be very
interesting. I feel however Zakopalova odds will go down.

Strategy: BH on [email protected], LL @ 1.6

7. Niculescu vs Jankovic

A possible 3 setter here.I feel the odds are right on Jankovic at 1.78.

However Laying her at the start is completely ok eventhough she may
win the set. Niculescu is one of the best players in the defense
category hence I feel the 3 setter is on the card!

Strategy: Lay Jankovic (not heavy)@ 1.79. Back at 1.95

8. Vinci vs Wickmayer:

Vinci odds are 1.58. I honestly dont know if that is right. Simple
reason being she had some gruelling matches in the Fed Cup. Her body
may still be recovering from those. Hence laying Vinci at the start
maybe the best choice. She may still win though but definitely lay her
at the start I feel.

Strategy: Lay Vinci (not heavy) @1.6. Back around 1.75.
If Vinci is serving soldly in the first few games and after applying
this strategy you are in loss, trade out immediately. As the match
goes, Vinci will definitely have an edge!

9 . Pironkova vs Oprandi:

One of my favourite giant killers – > Pironkova. No one can forget her
triumph over Venus Williams in Wimbledon few years back. She is
actually a very tough player to beat on all surfaces. A very
hardworking youngster.

However, the odds are favouring Oprandi here at 1.94. I can’t recall
much about her game to be honest. I would say wait for the first set
The serve statistics may indicate which way the market should be
traded. Go for the player with more first serve % in this match I
feel.

Strategy: Wait for a few games, assuming after 3 games each, Oprandi
is holding games easier, then go in her favour. This is an intuitive
strategy hence do not back heavy.

Alternatively you can wait for the first set. If you decide to lay the
winner of the first, do not lay heavy as the initial market price is
pretty much 50 – 50!

10. C Garcia vs Sharapova:

No one can forget a few years back when Sharapova lost the first set
and came from 4-0 down to beat Garcia 6-4 in the second and 6-0 in the
french open. Garcia is an excellent player and should be rated high
for future matches.

Sharapova however is on fire these days and losing only to very good
players like Li in the Aussie open (I predicted that ;))

Strategy: The back price is too low to back heavy really at 1.04. No
point in backing that. Laying for 50 units is better as there maybe a
chance Garcia would play good at the start. However do not lay heavy.
Trade out on Sharapova with a back price in the 1.09 range. That can
get you some money eventhough I am not sure if the price will even
jump to 0.01 decimal place lol!

11. Robson vs Hantuchova:

A possible 3 setter here.

Strategy: Definitely back Robson at 1.86 at the start. Hantuchova
again is coming from Fed cup with probably a bit of tiredness. Robson
would be more fresh. Lay at 1.6 range!

12. Stephens vs Tatishvili:

The much better server Stephens to win this one easily!

1.15 on him could be free money here. Back her heavy and lay at 1.07 price!

13. Kirilenko vs Bychkova:

Apply the same strategy as above as the odds are same on Kirlenko around 1.15!

14. Gavrilova vs Serena

I would normally say no chance for Gavrilova. But then, she beat
Medina Garrigues yesterday. Also Serena has been having injury issues.
Laying 1.04 maybe good hence.

Strategy: Lay 1.04 on Serena (not too heavy), back around 1.08 to 1.1.

The above strategy may not at all work. But the point is when the odds
are too low and there is a good reason to lay, you should lay! Hence
that low liability of units won’t matter as you can get them back
easily in another match, I guarantee;) Hence go a bit risky here.
However don’t go heavy against Serena at any time.

15. Barthel vs Kerber:

I completely disagree with the odds here. Barthel is the favourite at
1.82. I feel it should be the opposite. I am guessing the reason is
because Barthel won her first WTA title recently in France.

Kerber is an excellent hard court player who I predicted 3 years back
to be one of the best and she proved me right. Hence lay Barthel
(heavy if you want)!

Strategy: Lay Barthel heavy at 1.84, Back around 2.2 or 2.4.

I feel this could be 2 sets in Kerber’s favour or 3 setter but still
in Kerber’s favour!
Either way I feel more confident Kerber will win this!

————

Well done all those who took my strategies for last week! As you could
see my strike rate of 87% was pretty decent.

Remember its not the results that I want to happen. I may predict a
player to win and he may lose easily. It is the trading strategies to
be applied in tennis. My strike rate historically has been good and
hence apply them and see for yourself how good/bad I am !

Good luck again for this week!

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4 Comments

  • Liliana Posted February 12, 2013 3:52 pm

    Hello PR

    I want to thank you very mutch for send me your picks. Indeed had enough of losing money!But today, folloing your picks, I took a significant profit.

    Thank´s once

    • Patrick Ross Posted February 12, 2013 4:52 pm

      No problem at all!! All are welcome!!

  • Pete Posted February 12, 2013 10:52 pm

    Thanks for posting your trading suggestions and analysis Patrick. A very good strike rate again based on sound knowledge, understanding and experience.
    Will this become a regular subscription service in the future or are you doing this to promote your ‘Tennis Trading League’ product?

    • Patrick Ross Posted February 13, 2013 8:24 am

      Hi Pete, and thanks for the kind words. I’m doing this for both reasons. To show that my trading strategies in Tennis Trading League work, and I will be starting a subscription service in around 10 days. Subscription will only cost 10 euro per month which I think is very reasonable – I hope you agree!!?? Thanks again. Patrick.

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