Pinnacle Trading Tip: Nadal V Cilic 30th October + Post Match Analysis

TODAY’S PINNACLE TIP AS FOLLOWS:

MATCH: RAFAEL NADAL (SPAIN) VS MARIN CILIC (CROATIA)

EVENT: ATP BASEL

START TIME: 17:00 UK TIME

TIP: BACK NADAL @1.8, LAY @1.26

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

PLAYER FORM & COMPARISON:

While the Croatian relies primarily on serves and his power to fetch quick points, Nadal’s game is all about turning around rallies in his favour through constant defense.
No doubt, the Spaniard has had one of his worst seasons in 2015. However, since the US Open, the former World No.1 has shown a few glimpses of his past form.

Interesting to note that both players have won 8 of their previous 10 matches. The big difference however, is that Cilic’s opponents were far weaker than Nadal’s. In fact the only major opponent worth talking about for the Croatian recently was Wawrinka at Shanghai, who beat him in 3 sets. His earlier loss was to Nishikori at Tokyo. On the other hand, Nadal’s two losses were to Shanghai finalist Tsonga and World No.1 Djokovic in the Beijing Final.

For good reason, especially after his tough win over a dangerous player like Grigor Dimitrov, Nadal should be favoured here in my opinion.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

Overall, I expect a solid performance from Nadal today. A 3rd set is quite possible but a 2 set win looks more logical.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Both of Rafa’s previous opponents were pretty decent servers. Cilic on the contrary, isn’t known for hitting a ton of aces, but relies more on power. With that attribute alone, getting through his service games against Rafa is going to be quite a challenge. I am therefore expecting a better start for Rafa, who never relies on his serves alone to win points. That factor is a huge advantage for the Spaniard in today’s match.

Stake 2% of your bank on Nadal at the start and lay @1.26. Delaying the trade is not suggested as Nadal is less likely to show weakness again at the beginning, as he did against both his opponents so far.

Your potential profit is around 43% of the stake.

Worst case scenario:

In the event Cilic starts better, I suggest backing your remaining 1% on Nadal at odds of 2.7. Even with a break down, Nadal is good enough to come back and win this match in 2 sets.

In the event Nadal loses the first set and fights back to win the 2nd, I suggest trading out all markets before the 3rd set begins.

As always, any profits close to 20-25% is always good to trade out!

Good Luck!

ANALYSIS

This turned out to be a tricky market as Cilic really stepped up his game in the 1st set which he ended up winning 6-4. He continued his good momentum with an early break to lead 2-0. Have to say at this point, things looked bleak for us.

What followed, was a phenomenal comeback from Rafa as Cilic could manage just one more game as he ended up losing the set 6-3.
Nadal stepped up a gear in the final set and broke Cilic in the very first game and ran away with the match breaking the Croat twice with another 6-3 scoreline.

If you continued to trade in third set, your profits would have been quite high as Nadal broke early on. Even if you didn’t, you should have profited at least 40% of your stake quite easily here.

That’s 3 consecutive successful tips for us for Pinnacle! Check out membership options HERE

Market movement on Nadal as follows:

Patrick