MATCH: TOMIC (AUSTRALIA) V RAONIC (CANADA)
EVENT: ATP BRISBANE
START TIME: 02:30 UK TIME
TIP: LAY RAONIC @1.61, BACK @2
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 2% TOTAL (1% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : CAN BE CONSIDERED
In relation to the form of these players, the last tournament worth mentioning (excluding IPTL and other exhibition events) is ATP Shanghai where both these players participated.
While Raonic beat Bellucci and Agut before losing to Nadal, Tomic had much tougher opponents and had to get past Verdasco, Ferrer and Gasquet before losing to eventual champ Djokovic, whom he tested very much in the first set.
I must say Tomic looked very different in that tournament surprising many pundits. Indeed, we could be seeing a rejuvenation of Tomic in 2016.
The better server without a doubt is Raonic, who also has a ton of power in his forehand to hit blistering winners. Having said that, Tomic has improved a lot in the serving department and is also a very decent defensive player.
The head to head favours Raonic 2-0 with both matches played on hard courts in 2013 and 2014.
Even though he may be the underdog, I genuinely feel that the Australian has a chance here, especially after his solid win against a very tough Nishikori!
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
My general prediction for this match is either player winning in a tight 3 setter. Therefore, expecting a good performance from Tomic today to make Raonic odds jump up a bit, hopefully at the start!
Assuming Tomic can serve and defend as well as he did against Nishikori in the previous match, there is reason to lay the favourite at the start.
Invest 1% of your bank by laying Raonic at the beginning and backing him at odds of 2.00. I am not recommending high staking for this tip as Raonic is not an easy player to experiment with.
Delaying the trade to fetch better lay prices on Raonic can be considered (not mandatory) for this tip. A suggested lay price range for delaying would be 1.5 – 1.55.
Assuming you are not delaying, the potential profit is around 32% of the stake.
Worst case scenario:
Obviously, there is reason to believe that Raonic could start better as he does have a 2-0 head to head record against his opponent.
Assuming Raonic goes on to win the first set, I suggest backing Tomic at odds of 4 with your remaining 1% stake as I can see a possible 3 setter here.
If Tomic does exactly that, I suggest trading out the market with your achieved profits before the 3rd set begins..
As always, any profits between 20 – 25% is always good to trade out!
A very tight 2 setter between these players which Raonic won eventually on two tie-breakers.
Fortunately, as predicted, our target was hit early on as Tomic had 0-40 chances on Raonic’s serves in the 5th game. This moved the Canadian’s odds close to 2.1 making our trade successful.
Following image shows the market movement on Raonic.