PINNACLE TIP #7
DAY 10 – US OPEN
MATCH: AZARENKA (BELARUS) VS SIMONA HALEP (ROMANIA)
EVENT: US OPEN WOMENS
START TIME: 17:30 UK TIME
TIP: LAY AZARENKA @1.5, BACK @2
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED IN THE FIRST SET)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
Interestingly, Azarenka blew Halep away in two of their encounters played in 2012, both on hard courts. However, it is fair to say, Halep has improved her game by a mile since those defeats and therefore, this won’t be a walk in the park for the Belarusian.
Both players have had to play one deciding set so far.
Aza’s threat was against the very talented Angelique Kerber while Simona Halep had to battle some injury issues to get past a formidable challenger in Sabine Lisicki.
By all means, this could prove to be a very entertaining affair with both players having a very bold and aggressive playing style!
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
While Azarenka has been generally aggressive in her game throughout this tourney, her serves, I believe, are breakable. With Halep’s brute force hitting and no-fear attitude, I am counting on a good show for the Romanian here.
My general prediction for the match would be Halep starting better and Aza forcing a deciding set. If this turns out to be the case, I would prefer having my money on Aza as she has a ton of experience on such a big stage and was twice a runner up here in 2012 and 2013, both to her nemesis Serena Williams.
Assuming, I am right on Halep’s start, I advise to lay Aza @1.5 for a stake of 2% and back at the odds of 2.
I don’t want to recommend delaying the trade to fetch better lay odds simply for the reason that the majority of action is more likely to take place earlier in the first set. Hence, consider opting for Halep early on in the match.
Our potential profit is a very good 50% for this trade.
Worst case scenario:
The worst case scenario is Halep getting hammered here. On paper, we can’t completely ignore this as like I mentioned, both matches Halep has played against Aza, she lost it to scores of 6-3 6-1 and an even worse 6-1 6-1.
Such a scoreline would be extremely unlikely today as this is a much different Halep to a few years back.
Assuming Halep starts shakily and goes on to lose the first set easily, invest the remaining 1% on the Romanian at odds of 6 or above. Since Aza was a pretty big favourite at the beginning, I’m expecting to fetch some decent odds after the first set. Obviously, the higher the odds, the better. But as a general rule stick to a range of 6-9.
This is going to be our 2nd LAY tip of this service.
Best of luck!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
Our 7th Pinnacle tip was spot on as Halep recovered from a very early break to dominate the first set and win it 6-3. Our target was hit in the 4th game after Aza was broken. This was not an easy match to predict as Azarenka is a vastly experienced player on such a stage.
As I envisaged, there was a comeback from Azarenka who, after winning the second set, broke Halep early in the 3rd. Eventually though, it was Halep who came out on top as she just about had enough in her arsenal.
That’s 6/6 successful Pinnacle tips so far with all tipped players emerging as the eventual winner which is a great bonus!
Check out the screenshot to see Halep price movements for this match.