Pinnacle Trading Tip US Open Day 6 + Analysis

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PINNACLE TIP #5
 
DAY 6 – US OPEN
MATCH: LISICKI (GERMANY) VS STRYCOVA (CZECH REP.)
 
EVENT: US OPEN WOMENS
START TIME: 22:00 UK TIME
 
TIP: BACK LISICKI @1.45, LAY @1.18
 
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED IN THE FIRST SET)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

 
 
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
 
The head to head stat between these two players is tied at 1 game each. Interestingly both those matches were played this year and on hard courts.
 
After a rather good start to the season, Strycova’s form has declined considerably. Lisicki, on the other hand, had a terrible start to the season but picked up her form at Indian Wells and Miami Open and is in pretty good shape at the moment.
 
At first glance the key difference between these two players is the serve. Lisicki is a lightning quick server when she’s on song. Strycova on the other hand relies much more on defense.
 
Looking at the individual performances of both players in the earlier round, I was much more impressed with Lisicki. In fact if she plays as well as she did against Giorgi, we may have a challenge for Serena after all.
 
 
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
 
 
My general unfolding scenario for the match is Lisicki starting extremely well and going on to win the match comfortably. A 3rd set could be possible, but I wouldn’t put a lot of money on it as I haven’t seen an eye catching performance from Strycova yet!
 
To put it simply, we are siding by Lisicki the whole time for today’s Pinnacle Tip.
 
TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

 
Even though my staking advice is 3% in total, raising it to 4 or even 5% for today’s tip can be considered as I feel this strategy is likely to work early in the match.
 
Assuming you are sticking with my advice, simply stake 2% of your bank at the start on Lisicki as per the tip @1.45 and lay @ 1.18. If you are staking higher than 2% at the start, you can consider trading out slightly earlier @1.2 or a few ticks higher. Any profit close to 20% is good enough!
 
I am pretty much expecting Lisicki to dominate her service games and return well and hopefully win a comfortable first set here. This means, there is no reason to delay the trade hoping for better odds.
 
Our potential profit for this tip is 23% of the stake.
 
Worst case scenario:
 
As you can imagine, Strycova storming through the first set would be our worst case scenario for this match. From what I’ve seen of her so far, I just don’t think that is very likely. Indeed she may take this to a third set but to win in 2, is going to be incredibly tough for the Czech.
 
If our worst case scenario indeed happens, I suggest investing the remaining 1% on Lisicki at odds of at least 3.00. Since Lisicki was the original favourite here, expecting her to fight back in the 2nd set is a very calculated decision.
 
So far, all 4 players tipped on the Pinnacle service emerged as the eventual winners. Let’s hope we can make it 5 in a row today!
 
ANALYSIS OF TIP
 
Our target was hit after a slow start by Lisicki who came from a break down to win the first set. She then went on to break Strycova early in the second set only to give the break back. It was then time for some serious WTA drama as Lisicki lost the 2nd set and was 5-1 down in the final set. For all the world, it seemed our tipped player was going to go down as the loser, but back she comes winning an incredible 6 games in a row!

The pinnacle tip was already spot on very early on. Lisicki’s  win means all 5 of our Trading Tips have also won their matches

Have a look at the screenshots of both players’ market movements:
 
market movements - lisicki - strycova - pinnacle tip 5
 
Patrick

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