PINNACLE TIP #8
WOMENS FINAL – US OPEN
MATCH: ROBERTA VINCI (ITALY) VS FLAVIA PENNETTA (ITALY)
EVENT: US OPEN WOMENS FINAL
START TIME: 20:00 UK TIME
TIP: BACK PENNETTA @1.45, LAY @1.18
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 5% TOTAL (4% TO BE USED IN THE FIRST SET)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
I must say no one would have predicted an All-Italian finale for this year’s Womens US Open title.
A brief look at the two players:
She has always been a decent athlete on mainly hard courts and clay. A very aggressive minded player with a decent serve, her nemesis was lack of consistency.
However, that seems to have been sorted at least for the moment, as she was in scintillating form in knocking out two really tough players, Kvitova and Halep. Flavia absolutely deserves to be in this final.
There was no sign of such a rejuvenated comeback from Vinci a year or so back. In fact, I would have predicted she would end her career with a doubles title in the near future. But, to be fair, her last tournament at New Haven was a sign that she could be up to something here at the US.
Still, no one would have predicted the ultimate shock upset she caused yesterday to Serena Williams who was chasing more than just a title.
To come down from a set and beat Serena is almost unthinkable considering Vinci relies on defense more. Also on paper, Serena’s power and serves were always going to be a huge puzzle to solve. Yet, somehow she managed to jump over all those hurdles and turned out to be the giant killer.
In my opinion, her spirit and confidence are the primary weapons that are getting her through these tough matches. Add to that her change of game plan into more aggression along with spectacular defense, expect Vinci to give her all tomorrow in what could possibly be one big dream come true!
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
No doubt Vinci deserves enough praise for all she has done thus far at Flushing Meadows. However, I must say that I agree with the bookies on Flavia being a big favourite today.
First of all, Flavia’s dismissal of Halep is just too hard to ignore. She pretty much steamrolled her opponent.Also can’t ignore the fact that she beat an in-form Petra Kvitova.
Secondly, Vinci’s match against Serena is likely to have taken a lot out of her physically.
For these two reasons, my general unfolding scenario is Flavia winning this match in straightforward fashion.
The stakes are high here as neither player has reached the final of a Grand Slam Singles event yet.
As my general unfolding scenario points out, I am going for Flavia Pennetta here but with a decent sized stake of 4% at the start.This is because, I have been thoroughly impressed with her serves throughout this tourney. While Vinci has the goods to defend well, I just don’t think her serves are going to be as consistent as Pennetta, which I believe, gives the favourite an advantage.
Backing Pennetta @1.45 with a 4% stake and laying at 1.18 will give you close to a 23% profit for this tip. No stop losses are suggested and I do not recommend delaying the trade early on for fetching better back prices either.
A pretty straightforward trade where we are aiming for the quick fall in Flavia’s odds in the 1st set itself!
If we are successful, I suggest trading out the entire match!
You can choose to experiment with any greened out profits ONLY if the match goes into a deciding set.
As always remember, any profits close to 20% is enough to be happy about!
Worst case scenario:
While my inclination is towards Pennetta winning this match in 2 quick sets, a third set cannot be entirely ignored as both players have had to play 7 deciding set matches (that’s right!) between them thus far.
Therefore, in the worst case, Flavia starts poor and goes on to lose the 1st set without hitting our target, I recommend staking the remaining 1% on her at a back price of 3.5.
My feeling is that Vinci is less likely to win this match in 2 sets therefore there is a chance that the market may revert to its original prices assuming Pennetta fights back of course.
So far all our Pinnacle tips have been spot on with the tipped players ending up as eventual winners.
Can we continue our winning streak in this Womens Final?
Good luck as always!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
First break to Pennetta, and it looked like we were going to hit our target rather comfortably. However Pennetta gifting a break back meant this was going be slightly tricky. There was a bit of a jump in her price till we reached the 1st set tie-break.
Once Pennetta won it, our target was easily hit very early on in the 2nd set.
A pretty smooth affair as I had predicted as Vinci was just too defensive on the day!
Our trading streak rolls on!
Have a look at the price movements in the following image: