Tennis Trading Advice: Greening out!

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This article answers some common questions about the most important part of trading, ‘Greening out’!

As a trader, the ultimate objective for all of us is cashing out. It’s very possible that almost all of us will have a bad streak at some point. The most important thing you’ve to realise is, even with well placed strategies, you are not guaranteed a profit all of the time. After all, it’s just a STRATEGY. However, as I always point out, it is only the bright ones who come out of such bad streaks and continue to win in the long run…

Let’s look at Greening out in a bit more detail..

For the lay person out there, Greening out simply means having a Green Amount (or Profit) on your trades. Greening out implies you have traded out the market with a Profit. This is obviously different from being in the ‘GREEN ZONE’, where you’re showing profit, but you haven’t traded out yet.

First of all, I recommend every single trader use a platform to trade rather than the Betfair website. The CASH OUT button on Betfair doesn’t come close to using a platform. You don’t even have a ladder interface on the website to instantly get your trades going. So first thing’s first, USE A PLATFORM AND NOT THE BETFAIR SITE for trading especially if you are risking big!  The recommended option is Fairbot – it’s a simpler platform and in my opinion, very suited to the tips.

So now that we’ve gone through the negatives of trading on the website, let’s focus on the Greening out on ‘BOTH SIDES’ part. I get this question a lot so here’s the answer:

Suppose we consider the following Match and corresponding odds:

Murray (1.9) v Wawrinka (2.1)

Assuming you have backed Murray here and he is doing well and has in fact won the first set. Odds have since decreased from 1.9 to 1.3 here. The profit would be around 46 units if your stake was 100 units.

Calculation:

Backed Murray for [email protected], Laid Murray for 146 @1.3

Stake difference = 146 – 100 = 46 (in profit)

There is profit here yes, but it is a GUARANTEED PROFIT on both sides regardless of who wins.

However if you just want profit on the Murray side alone, the situation is slightly different. The maximum profit on Murray would be about 60 units (in the Green Zone) as we can see from the following calculation:

Backed Murray for [email protected] –> Profit if Murray wins = 90, Profit if he loses = (- 100)

Laid Murray for 100 @1.3 ——>Profit if Murray wins  = (- 30), Profit if he loses = 100

Total  Profit / Loss              =90 – 30    = 60 (if win) ;  100 – 100 = 0 (if lose)

This basically means we are profiting only on Murray side and have ignored the possibility of Wawrinka fighting back to win!

I always ask traders to green out with a profit, no matter how much better the favourite is. At the end of the day you won’t be thinking too much as you have already got a profit. On the contrary, if Wawrinka does come back or in the worst case, let’s assume Murray got injured, you are going to wonder why you made the wrong choice there. The simple lesson is to always cash out something that looks a decent amount.

Another common disaster that I see is people making the right decision first then not sticking by it. Let’s assume you have greened out on Murray @46 and you are just waiting for the match to finish. However as the match drags on, Murray odds have gone to 1.05. At this time, instead of waiting for the match to complete you are deciding to put all your green on the Wawrinka side on 1.05 to get a mere 2.30 units more. This is something that I’ve seen people do personally and have always disliked the idea. All that hard work to get close to a 50 unit profit and yet you are so desperate to get 2 units extra. It is a very bad practice indeed and shows how greedy a trader can be. There is no need to do it and sooner or later there will be a match that completely disorients you with such a decision. Remember, as the saying goes, ”Patience is bitter, but its fruit are sweet”. I always like my fruit sweet!

Thanks for reading!

 

2 Comments

  • Jerome Posted March 1, 2014 5:29 pm

    Hi Patrick, I have 2 questions for you (if you don’t mind):
    1. Do you generally do only one trade per match?
    2. Do back/lay for the same amount and only green/red out when ready to leave the match?
    Thanks

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