Tennis Trading Advice: Using Tips from Tennis Trading League

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This probably is one of the most important articles that I’ve wrote so far!

First of all, before you take my tips, ask the question as to what is your TARGET FOR TODAY. Have you got a target at all?

E.g., if my bankroll is around 100, I would go for a 10/20 unit target and that’s my only priority.

While it is possible that I may make much more, that 10/20 is what I am after and that’s my mission! So for me, that’s the key to winning.

You will find hundreds of people coming to you saying they won 200 or 300 on this match and they had predicted this and that to happen and all went according to plan and claiming they are great traders! Let me assure you, that’s not the case. The great ones are those who consistently make money, every single day. It doesn’t matter how much they are winning, AS LONG AS THEY ARE WINNING! What you don’t hear from our fellow boastful ‘GREAT’ trader is about his losses. No one wants to accept or admit when they have made mistakes. That’s a surety. His 200 or even 2000 unit profit means nothing to me, if he has lost 1000 the next day. Because, it says, sooner or later, he’s going downhill!

To put it simply, SET A TARGET for each day!

Now that you’ve done that, approach my tips with a calm mind.

Remember, I am not putting my house on every single tip I give. Also, if you do not have time to trade every single market, DONT! There is no problem at all in not using all the tips. In fact, if you have achieved your target for the day, I think its perfectly alright if you don’t continue with the tips till the next day.

I suggest people to go after the BH tips more. You don’t have to BACK HEAVY all the time. You can do it with smaller stakes. 

The reason I give tips, especially the Back Heavy, is due to constant monitoring of matches of particular players, trying to find out their weaknesses, their strengths, their serves etc. So far, though, I’m happy to say BH has been very very successful.

Now that you’ve set a target and found a few BH tips for trading,

what I suggest to do is delay the trade for at least 2/3 games, especially when using very big stakes, or Back Heavy stakes. This is not mandatory – the choice is yours – as indeed there is a chance of a favourite winning straight from the start and you may have missed the good odds completely. But, it is worth considering, as it gives you a feel for the game to see how your player is doing,  for example, if he is showing the same form as the previous day, are his serves doing damage? Is your opponent returning well? All these questions matter, and mistakes can be avoided if you get an understanding of the players at the start by just delaying trading. When calculating whether a tip is successful or not, I will always call a tip successful if delaying trading would have made it successful.

If you don’t want to delay too much, you can consider putting a reasonably lower stake on the tip I give, something that doesn’t affect your bankroll too much. It’s more of an experimental stake to see how the market is reacting. I do it with few units sometimes and it’s a good strategy that you can apply. Remember these are just tips to get used to the market  before you go big. The whole point of delaying is about being PATIENT!

After this, its all about entering the trade at a reasonable price. There is no point at entering a trade at a very low price. For example if the tip was [email protected], I don’t see the logic of entering a trade @1.2. Also this poses more risk. However if the tip was back @1.8 and you get the price around 1.65, that’s more reasonable, even though you are getting lesser odds. Also it’s more probable  that you may get better odds generally when you delay. From experience, that’s often the case, especially when  there’s no huge favourite in the match!

After getting the price, choose a laying price that you find is worth getting some money off. Generally I give a 15-30 decimal price difference. Hence if I’m giving, let’s say [email protected], lay @1.75, and if you got the price @2, it is perfectly fine if you trade out early @1.8! This makes you adapt to the market and are the stepping stones in dealing with prices and improves your trading experience. Every market is different and should be handled differently. Hence sometimes going against my tip can  be considered! There is no Nostradamus for Betfair, but if there is I’d like to meet him! Just stick to meaningful plans and you will see that money come in.

SHOULD MY BACK AND LAY BETS BE FOR THE SAME AMOUNT?

I’ve got a number of mails from visitors and members recently who’ve directed their question to ‘stake sizing’.

In this article I shall give a brief summary of how I personally would stake for myself with a bankroll of 1000 units.

As always, it is very important to enter the market at the right price. Hence, the right strategy most of the time  is to delay the trades.

For this article, I am going to choose one of the LAY HEAVY tips I gave today (June 28th ) as an example.

The tip was as follows:

LAY HEAVY ON PENNETTA @1.92, [email protected] 2.2 (against CORNET)

I personally would have considered 30% of my bank (300 units for this example) as the potential risk here.

This would mean my potential win would be 326 for risking around 300.

Calculation as follows:

Laid Pennetta @1.92 for 326 , Liability of 299.92 precisely

The Back price of this tip was @2.2 (28 decimals away)

Now in order to guarantee yourself a profit, the first thing you should remember is that your stake has to be less than 326 when you are backing @2.2! If the back stake is exactly same as your lay stake, you will have no profit or loss on the other side (in this case, if Pennetta wins, which was what eventually happened!!). If the stake is more than 326 on the back side it means you are losing if Penneta wins. So the moral of the story is, if you are laying STAKE X at a price, you should be backing less than Stake X on a bigger price to guarantee yourself GREEN. This is simply a must. The principle is the same in other forms of trading whether it is FX or Stocks.

Hence, in relation to our tip, the maximum profit achievable is around 41 units by backing 2.2 with a stake of 285 units.

Overall Calculation:

Laid [email protected] for 326 units , If Pennetta loses, our loss is 299.92, if she wins, profit is 326

Backed Pennetta @2.2 for 285, If Pennetta wins our profit is 342, if she loses we lose 285

Overall profit if Pennetta Wins = 342 – 299.92 = 42. 08, if she loses = 326 – 285 = 41 units

Let’s now look at the difference if we laid and backed the same stake of 326!

Calculation :

Laid [email protected] for 326, If Pennetta loses, we lose 299.92, if she wins , profit is 326

Backed [email protected] for 326, If Pennetta wins, we win 391.20, if loses, we lose 326

Overall profit if Pennetta Wins = 391.20 – 299.92 = 91.28,  If Loses = 326 – 326 = 0 !!

As we can see from the above example, if in the worst case scenario Pennetta fights back to win, exactly what happened today, our 2-3 hour worth of trading gave us 0 profit and loss. Hence, what you should always consider is guaranteeing a profit.

Indeed the 91 profit looks sweet, but you should always lay some of that 91 to not worry about nasty surprises as that’s what trading is all about. Many times in my amateur days of trading, I have been in situations where the losing player catches form all of a sudden and has destroyed my trades in a matter of minutes, usually in fluctuating tie-breaks. While I can consider that comeback a bit unlucky, I do not deserve any sympathy for not acting when I had the chance!

You can always play with the stakes whether you are trading with Betfair website or on a platform to see where you are at. Experiment this with the trading buttons on the platform. As time goes on, some of these numbers will automatically stick in your mind which will prove very vital during key situations.

The moral of the story is  – ‘ALWAYS GREEN OUT WITH A GUARANTEED PROFIT’ by adjusting the stakes accordingly!!

By the way, we beat the market rather easily in this particular match as Cornet blew away Pennetta by 6-0 in the first set which was all what we were after.

Once you have done all of the above with a plan and a target set for each day, I guarantee you there will be more greens in your account. What this whole etiquette does is to make you a better and patient trader. There is one final story to this article and that is ‘trading out’. It is probably the most important secret to being a good trader. If there is a wild fluctuating market and you can’t figure out which way the market is going, and that you have had a chance just to green out a small profit, don’t think, just trade that out! The saying ‘Little Drops Make A Mighty Ocean’ is so relevant to trading and should be always on one’s mind!

Also, never worry about trading out in a loss situation. People have this inclination towards a particular thing to happen when things go against them and they choose to wait. While waiting is alright, it is strictly not advised if your bankroll is decreasing at a rapid rate. Again, the best traders are those that trade out earlier than later!

If you follow or at least consider every single tip I’ve mentioned above before trading each day, I guarantee that you will be a successful Tennis Trader on Betfair who can consistently beat markets.

Thanks for reading!

17 Comments

  • Leif Gustafsson Posted May 28, 2013 8:29 am

    Very good article. That sorted out many qustions. In faq i saw trading out at 40% loss is that recommended in your tips to if it happenes? Got a big punch yesterday from my homeplayer Johanna Larsson. Glad for her but it was a heavy loss. Got some winnings to but overall a loss. My second day in trading som i am really new at this. Today i am going to trade out at 40% loss if it will happen in any match i guess thats the key. I would have done it with profit if I had done that in Larssons match.
    Great service this. Love it. Saw a great game last night. Berdych – Monfils. Really good game from both players. Good luck today everyone

    • Patrick Ross Posted May 28, 2013 10:43 am

      Hi Leif, really glad you’re enjoying the service! Kepp me posted on your second day. I’m always interested in hearing from my members…
      Patrick

  • johnny Posted May 28, 2013 8:41 am

    Cheers Patrick,some very wise words there 🙂

    • Patrick Ross Posted May 28, 2013 10:41 am

      Hi Johnny, glad you found it useful! I’ll be posting more articles in the coming days…

  • Patrick Ross Posted June 19, 2013 10:51 am

    Hi Matti. Sometimes it can be hard to make 20% in a day. My personal daily target is 10%, or 70% for the week. Setting goals too high just leads to frustration. 10% is very achievable for anyone.
    Patrick.

  • john knight Posted June 20, 2013 11:39 am

    Ten % is extremely hard for a new trader to achieve, i would say staying level is the aim at first,with a view to gaining the trading levels that are in your comfort zone.If losses are hurting you at 40% on a loss trade day, then its showing the trade levels are too high for you.
    I would say aiming for a 20% gain on your bank in a week after a few months is amazingly good.Not many investments will give you that, and of course its all down to you and your own trading skills, so when it happens how good does that feel..

    • Patrick Ross Posted June 20, 2013 5:20 pm

      Hi John
      I just had a mail yesterday from a guy who wants 20% a day which is asking a lot for a complete newbie. Of course its possible to make 20% or more, but high expectations only lead to frustration. So like you said, expectations should not be too high until you get into your comfort zone.
      In my opinion, 10% is completely achievable, even as a beginner. If you read all the advice and follow the few simple rules outlined in the articles (which are listed with the tips each day) it’s not difficult to achieve. Indeed, I have 300 members who are very happy with the tips and their profits.
      Patrick.

  • john knight Posted June 21, 2013 10:42 am

    Hi patrick,yes well said….i was watching the tennis at Eastbourne yesterday and the commentator passed a comment that really got my focus……she said “what other sport can you play where you are so far out of the event/game for so long and still turn it round and win……Great comment and one to take in for the trading mentality

    • Patrick Ross Posted June 21, 2013 11:03 am

      Hi John, great comment indeed…I missed that one, but thanks for sharing it with us.
      Patrick.

  • Jerome Posted February 22, 2014 12:59 pm

    Hi Patrick,
    While I’m just starting with Tennis, I have a bit of experience with Betfair (and trading in financial markets).
    First of, I would agree that 10% a day is definitely achievable. The thing with sport trading, in my opinion, is that the markets cannot accept unlimited money ie, there is a max bet size at some point. So while a few % in Stocks is plenty fine, ROI% must be higher in sport trading in order to make it worthwhile…
    Now, I have a question, being more a trader than a punter, I’d generally green out equally (same result whatever happens), but maybe that’s not the most effective way to earn long term? It would take a lot of testing to know which way to go, so from your experience, what would you think is best, green out equally or move all the profits to the most likely side?
    Thanks

    • Patrick Ross Posted February 23, 2014 7:26 am

      Hi Jerome

      Indeed the difference is huge when you compare sports trading to financial markets. As you pointed out rightly, all markets on Tennis need not be liquid and hence there is an element of uncertainty. However for Forex markets there is no such issue as it is the world’s largest Exchange by a wide margin.

      Now on to your question. I always advise people to green out something on both sides of the market. I am not sure what your knowledge is on Tennis markets. At times I keep money one side when needed rather than greening out equally. However, this is purely because I understand the markets well, after years of trading and planning. Still, at the end of the day, the objective is always to profit something. If you are trading with a lot of money, I suggest greening out equally for the time being to avoid big surprises. As time goes,you may find yourself more confident to alter your strategies..

      Regards
      Patrick

  • John Noel Posted April 25, 2014 8:56 am

    Hi Patrick,
    Thanks for your trading tips…going well at peesent. How about being very careful, and just aiming to increase the trading bank by 3% a day . Starrting with a £100 bank, if there were no liquidity problems, after 10 months, your bank would have grown to over 100 thousand pounds. Just a thought!!
    Regards, and thanks.
    John

    • Patrick Ross Posted April 26, 2014 3:17 pm

      Hi John – it’s great to be positive and I love the mentality but we need a note of realism when projecting potential returns. What you are expecting is pretty difficult to achieve – but I suppose with the right mentality and discipline, it’s possible!! But as you said, liquidity would be the main issue once your bank grows to a certain size. Please keep us informed of your progress…

  • Vladimir Romanov Posted October 9, 2014 7:04 pm

    Hi, Patrick! I’m a new subscriber (signed just today, wow!) and I can say that I’ve should done it earlier! These articles told me about mistakes I’ve made earlier. I think that your website is a treasure for traders. I wish you good luck and thank you for sharing your knowledge with newcomers!

    • Patrick Ross Posted October 9, 2014 7:33 pm

      Hi Vladamir – glad you find it useful. This website is a catalogue of all my past experiences and how I overcame them. Being a trader for so many years means I’ve made some mistakes along the way. My aim is to make sure you don’t make the same mistakes as me. This also means that users of my site can be more successful from the very start..

  • phil savory Posted June 1, 2015 5:58 am

    Hi Patrick

    Just joined and looking forward to some good trading, your site is very informative and can’t wait to receive your first tip, cheers

    Phil

    • Patrick Ross Posted June 1, 2015 7:02 am

      Hi Phil, I’m just working on today’s tips now. They will be with you in about half an hour. Great to have you on board.
      Patrick.

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