Hi Guys,
Just wanted to show you some screenshots from my activity on Betfair today.
Here’s a screenshot from Cibulkova – Petrova
Easy 18 quid profit as predicted with my tips today!!The right area shows what I have backed, what I have laid and precisely at what amounts!
Here’s another screenshot of a match that I was trading on.
All I did was watch the match as it progressed.
Devvarman was about to have match points when I felt like risking 5
quid was a very calculated risk. Paire came back and won that set, and
became the favourite which made me cash out 35 quid easy!
Pure example of good intuition but a very good calculated risk of 5 quid!
All my tips are available to all visitors to the site until this Saturday when the membership will go live.
Book your place as one of the 300 by using the opt in form to the right – you wont be asked for any money until launch and even then you’re under no obligation to join – but at least you’ll have the choice!! And you will get the chance to join 24hrs before Joe public get to join!! With only 300 places I’m confident that all places will be taken. Book yours now!!
Thanks Guys,
Patrick.
9 Comments
Nice to see some screenshoots from your trading and gratulate for all winning trading.
I have one question when do you think the best exit point is when back heavy one player. For example in the Davis – Rybarikova game where should you have exit? The odds went down to 1.6 on Davis but I stayed in the trade and then came the break for Rybarikova.
Should I have traded out at that point?
Would be glad get some tips and pointers here what to do?
Hi Peter
Since I indeed tipped Davis here to do well and she didn’t, it was a
rather hard one to trade this match in her favour. Here is what you
should have done with an exit strategy in mind.
If you were backing heavy on this match, having seen Davis broken
first, you have 2 choices. Either wait out the first set or till tie
break (safer option) or trade it out completely .
Reason for letting the trade go on at least till a tie break is that
WTA women can hardly serve out sets easily. You should always give the
broken player a chance especially as the initial odds were pretty much
the toss of a coin here.
One thing to watch closely here is what is the serve stats of both
players towards the end of the first set! I haven’t checked it yet as
I wasn’t trading on this yesterday but I believe Rybarikova’s must
have been better overall which includes return serve percentage etc.
Always, remember if you are not sure of anything or feel like getting
into a panic mode, trade out! Think about it later but trade it out
first! It will save you lots of money in the future, I guarantee it.
I hope I answered your questions.
Cheers
Hi Patrick what about *havy* bets today: Radwanska, Monilsvs ? Could You advice pls the proportion between heavy and standard bet, what ratio shall I use ? Thx and GL tomorrow
Hi Jesper
Indeed the Radwanska match was a rather unlucky one for strategy and a
very strange one. Reason being, this was a 3 setter but never went
hugely in favour of the favourite Radwanska!
In relation to when to trade out here’s my answer:
Let’s look at the start of this match rather closely.
Odds were 1.8 on Radwa at the start.She held her serve first game.
Zheng held the next. The third game was dominated by Zheng here and
she broke Radwa for a 2-1 lead. The odds at the time was 1.7 (ish) on
Zheng. I would have waited for 2 more games personally. But even doing
that this wasn’t good as Radwanska never looked good in her service
games in the first set! Odds were swiftly going towards the 1.5 range.
I personally would have traded out at this particular price!
Indeed after the first set I believe Zheng’s odds was around or less
than 1.3! (This would mean trading out at 1.5 indeed saved us some
money)!
However at this time, I would have laid something on Zheng just to get
me in the Green Zone on Radwanska’s side. Note that I won’t be laying
heavy here! Radwa indeed dominated the second set, which means while
you are still in loss, your loss may have been halved after the second
set. Since already this was a hard one to trade. I would completely
trade out with this halved loss and closely monitor the match in the
3rd and look for a better situation. Indeed there were many better
situations as Zheng was 5-2 in the 3rd I believe so laying something
on her again at that stage for a rather big amount but small liability
was definitely good to completely cancel out all your losses and be in
total Green Zone!
Hence accepting certain losses at the start would make a big
difference towards the end of this match. But like I said it was
always chasing money in this trade as the favourite was never in a
good lead in this match so it actually was not the easiest of markets
to trade!
Safer option: Eventhough I mentioned about backing Radwa heavy here,
you can always wait for a few games before you do that. I always
suggest waiting a few games 2 service games of each player just to see
how they are serving and returning as it gives a lot of information!
Cheers
Of course thanks alot for answering that helps me in future trades how to look at them and how to act.
Just one more question regarding Monglis game what should I have done there? I traded out for a loss when the break came. Right or wrong?
Hi Peter
Of course you were right to trade out early with a loss as that match
wouldn’t have been tipped as a 2-0 loss to Monfils before the match
started!
So well done in reducing your loss which could have been much worse!
Cheers
By the way where can I find/see the serving stats?
Hi Peter
So many sites you can check on. The official sites are wtatour.com and
atpworldtour.com
They get jammed due to traffic sometimes so I normally check on
tennisbetsite.com
Cheers
Thanks for the links Patrick
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