1. Hajek vs Llodra:
Odds are 1.18 on Llodra. This is absolute free money for me. Hajek
won’t win today, simple as that!
Strategy : Back very heavy and lay at 1.08. Easy profits here!
2. Nieminen vs Stakhovsky:
Stakhovsky I expected to win easily yesterday but wasn’t the case. He
just happened to win and didn’t play that well to be honest. Nieminen
was solid against Davydenko. I expect him to go through hence!
Odds are 1.4 on Nieminen. That looks a bit short. However back it
anyways and lay at a lower price in the 1.2 range. Stakhovsky can
still win in 3 here. He may step it up today so don’t go heavy on
3. Paire vs Simon:
Simon odds are 1.5. That odds maybe right but I expect this to be a
closely fought match and not a one-way traffic! Best option maybe to
wait for the first set to finish. If Paire for some reason wins it, go
in Simon’s favour. If Simon wins it, you can choose to back heavy but
the price of course will be low. I am not a fan of backing Simon heavy
at the start as his serve is not the best. He simply wins on rallies
which he is good at!
This match could be a big profitable market if Simon loses the first
set. So I am hoping Simon’s odds to go up at some time. He may still
win it though!
4. Gasquet vs Benneteau:
Match of the day in France. Odds on Gasquet are 1.4. I feel that
should be higher in the 1.6 range. Gasquet was solid against Monfils
yesterday with some amazing rallies which only he can come up with !
Benneteau however was solid as well against Hanescu who didn’t
honestly stand a chance!
Hence going for Benneteau handicap as a bet here is not a bad idea. I
think this will be a close match! Gasquet has been on fire recently so
it is likely he will win but like I said, expect a close contest!
Safest strategy: Wait out the first set. Whoever wins the first, lay
them! I feel a 3 setter in this match. As a warning don’t go heavy on
Benneteau. He has a habit of retiring with injuries these days so just
keep that in mind!
Zagreb Indoors – Croatia
1. Rosol vs Melzer:
This could be a rather tight match to call. I agree with the odds here as 50/50!
Personally I feel Melzer may be the better player to back here as he
is a rather good indoor hard court player. Still dont back him too
much. Waiting out the first set is also not a bad idea and laying the
winner of the first may be productive!
2. Haase vs Petzschner:
Another tough one to call here. Odds are favouring Haase here. If I
pick one I would pick Haase in 3.
Safest strategy would be again to wait out the first set and lay the
winner of the first!
Odds are 1.8 on Haase here. So if you choose to trade during the first
set, laying him I feel maybe better as it maybe likely that odds will
jump to around 1.9 range atleast. Whatever you do, don’t back heavy!
3. Youzhny vs Dodig:
For the third time, I cant call this one as well. I feel both have a
good chance. Dodig was good yesterday and I expect him to play good at
home today again. Youzhny an expert in hard courts hence hard to
predict the outcome.
Strategy: Youzhny odds will likely jump from 1.6 to atleast 2 I feel.
You can lay him heavy at the start as Youzhny is not the best of
starters generally! Expect all guns blazing from Dodig. I still
however can’t predict a winner here. Would favour Dodig slightly more
due to home court advantage. This could be a 3 setter !
4. Cilic vs Kavcic:
Kavcic has been on a bit of a role so far. I expect him to lose today
however to the favourite of the tournament. Cilic will play good I
feel. Odds are 1.14 on Cilic at the moment. Expect that to go down but
don’t go heavy on Cilic !
1. Berlocq vs Rufin:
I predicted Monaco to beat Rufin easily but I was wrong there. However
strategy wise, the trading part was spot on as backing him and laying
at low price on Monaco should have got you in green as that’s exactly
what happened straight away.
I feel this may go in Berlocq’s favour as the odds suggest (1.59). You
can back him and lay in the 1.35 – 1.4 range. But better to be safe
hence don’t back heavy!
2. Ramos vs Zeballos:
Ramos odds are 1.7. Another tough one to call. I personally like
Zeballos as a clay courter so I am going to be biased towards him as
his serve I feel is better than Ramos. Hence laying Ramos and backing
around 2 might be the right strategy. Again don’t go heavy as this
could be another risky market!
3. Nadal vs Gimeno:
No need for me to predict this. Nadal won’t lose! Handicap on Gimeno
maybe not a bad idea though as he had taken a set of Djokovic in the
clay court last year in the Valencia Open I believe!
4. Chardy vs Lorenzi:
Chardy price is around 1.4. That for me could be the right price. If
however Chardy wins the first set, lay him for a small amount. Lorenzi
is an experienced clay courter.
Clay courts are generally a great surface for traders as the first set
winner likely tends to save some energy by not playing that hard in
the second! Take that as a tip in general for all clay courts!
Note : I will be posting a strike rate on my Trading tips/Strategies
after this Sunday so you can see how good the strategies have been so
far in mathematical terms!
Good luck for today!