It’s rare to see such a gap in odds pre match between these two. Federer is a huge outsider at odds of 7 on the exchange and Djokovic is trading at 1.16.
It’s not hard to see why – Federer has played 5 more sets in the last 3 rounds than Djokovic. Federer was so close to losing against Sandgren that the ATP released an article in which they described the ‘loss’, and had to retract it! That struggle was after Federer needed 5 sets to get past Millman and four sets to get past Fucsovics. These exertions are hugely significant on the body of Federer and his exertions were very clear towards the end of the match with Sandgren.
Djokovic has never lost a semi final or final at the Australian Open, and he’s hitting his stride in 2020, whereas Federer is on the wane. The surface and new balls seem more advantageous to the Serb, and we are expecting nothing but a top performance. Can he be stopped? The last time I can remember Fedcerer beating Djokovic in a 5 set match was back in 2012, and it seems unlikely to ever happen again. The only way it can happen is for Federer to dominate from start to finish and take it 3-0. Odds of that happening are 34/1 currently on Boylesports or 25/1 on the exchange. If it goes to 4 or 5 sets, Djokovic holds all the cards.
Prediction: Djokovic 3-0