Hi All, here’s some predictions/strategies for today’s matches:
1. Chardy vs Murray: No way is this match going to Chardy as Murray
will beat him! Chardy has caused a major upset having said that by
beating Del Potro but Murray is on a different league hence Murray all
Strategy to apply: Back Murray heavy at 1.07 or 1.08 , lay him at 1.02
just to get you in green.
Eg: Back Murray for 1.07 at stake of 100 (liability: 100) , lay him
at 1.02 for 105 (liability 2.1)
Profit here is approximately is 5! Easy money.
The risk however is more in this trade as Murray odds are too low,
still I take it as free money!
2. Tsonga vs Federer
This match for me is unlikely to be a 3 setter, meaning at some point
Federer odds will go up.
It could be another upset as I have a feeling Tsonga may win this in a
tough fought match. But beating Roger is a dream for most!
Strategy: My strategy here would be to lay Federer for a smaller stake
at the start (See my ChampWinning Strategy). If Federer wins the first set, lay Federer again but this time a much higher stake maybe 3 or 4 times the initial stake.
You can wait for a few games in the start of the second set to see how
the market behaves here.
If however, Tsonga has won the first set, you can trade the profit out
straight away. And it would be a good choice to back on Federer.
Application: Lay federer at 1.2 for 20 units (liability 4), back
federer at 1.6 if he loses the first set. If he wins the first set and
assuming the odds went down to 1.1, lay him for roughly 4 times the
initial stake which would be 16 units (laying for 160 in this case).
Eg: lay fed 1.2 for 20 for 4, back him at 1.6 for 15 units.
Approximate profit is 5 units. This is if federer loses the first set.
For federer winning the first set lay at 1.2 for 20 (liability 4), and
lay again at 1.1 about 4 times the initial stake (which would be
laying 1.1 at 16 for profit of 160) after the first set, if he keeps
winning trade out, else if he loses the 2nd set you can back federer
at 1.25 for 133 units. Profit achieved is 18 units approximately!
Another good tip is to lay the set betting 3-0 market at 1.65 or 1.7
if federer wins the first set. You can already give that price in
advance after the match goes in play as its likely to get matched.
Azarenka vs Kuznetsova
If Tsonga was the men’s dark horse, Kuznetsova for me is the womens’!
Azarenka has been incredible so far except for the Hampton match but
that can be attributed to the horrible heat of Sydney which both
players suffered from.
Kuznetsova is a former Grandslam Champion and her recent form has been amazing!
Strategy: Lay Azarenka at the start. If she loses the first set, trade out.
Application: lay azarenka at 1.14 for 50, liability 7, if kuznetsova
wins the first set, odds may go around 1.6 . back azarenka at 35
units. Profit is 14 units. In the worse case of Azarenka winning the
first set, you can either lay more just like the federer example
earlier or trade out completely with a loss of 4-5 units.
4. Stephens vs Serena Williams
This could be a good match as the last time the two played a few weeks
ago, Stephens really pushed Serena in the first set. However I am
against laying serena at any time in this match.
Best strategy for me: 2 options here, either go heavy on Serena at
1.04 which means your stake should be very high to get small wins.
2nd option is to wait for the first set. In case, Stephens wins the
set, put 50 on serena. The important thing here is even if Stephens
wins the set, odds may not even jump to 1.4 as serena is the ultimate
female tennis player of our generation. Hence laying her at any time
in a grandslam is a stupid mistake. Back her always, high or low!
Application: Back her heavy lets say for 200 units at 1.04, most
likely it will fall to 1.01 in a few games, Then lay her at 1.01 for
206. Profit 6 units! This is a risky business as the stake is high but
serena is unbeatable really these days so it could be an other free
money like Murray!
If Serena loses the set just back her at whatever price there is and
leave it at that. Just trade out whatever you need just to be in
Thats it! I have done the 4 matches above. The doubles looking at
the market its never liquid so its better to ignore it. The only good
bet I can think of is bolelli/fognini to beat farah/cabal!