Betfair Tennis Trading Tips 3rd June – French Open Day 10

6 Comments

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  Christian Dittrich Posted June 3, 2014 3:39 pm

  Muguruza did a great 1st set, so the bets got won. In the end, Maria was lucky and she was in a better shape. But great pick, this match, Patrick!

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    Patrick Ross Posted June 3, 2014 6:39 pm

    Hi Christian – worked out nicely for the betting and trading tips..I was tempted to go for Mugu to win the match in the betting tip but giving the handicap turned out to be the right tip (though it didnt look that way at the end of the 1st set!)

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  Profitcsinalo Posted June 3, 2014 8:45 pm

  Very good day. Only Berdych was poor. After the first set won by Gulbis, I layed Gulbis hoping for striking back Berdych. I have problems with laying the first set winner. Sometimes I’m lucky and win some additional profit, but many times I lose more money. I don’t really know when to start laying the first set winner. I think it’s depends on the odds. Today I layed Gulbis at 1.59 for a 3.33 unit stake. What is the ideal unit size and Stop Loss for this kind of “lay the first set winner” trades?

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  • 
    Patrick Ross Posted June 3, 2014 10:52 pm

    Hi Kristof
    In relation to laying the winner of the first set, you have to have good reasons to do it. My feeling was that Berdych was going to start well and Gulbis would fight back. I was pretty shocked at how easily Gulbis handled Tomas here. It was pretty brutal hitting and serving. Looking at the first serve stats , I personally wouldn’t have laid Berdych immediately and would’ve given sometime, maybe at least 3 or 4 games in the second set to see if Gulbis serves are starting to fade.
    To answer your question on the stake sizes, I would generally advise the stakes to be rather low if you are laying the first set winner if that is your first entry point of trading. If on the contrary you had already backed Gulbis at the start and was trying to lay him, then you are actually recycling your green. In such a case, you are playing with your profits so there is no risk. But still, I wouldn’t advise to have a big crack at backing Berdych here. In your case you staked a small – around 3 units – which is perfectly fine. In relation to the stop losses, you can put it as normal 40% if the stakes are a bit high or even upto 60% SL if the stakes are rather low.
    For me the real reason in backing Berdych here was his display over Agut and Isner. I thought he handled both well, especially Isner who has the biggest serve at the moment in ATP and pretty much trashed him in 3 sets. Gulbis, even though having a decent serve, I thought wasn’t going to be as effective as John’s. This is the reason why I felt Berdych was going to start well. However, again, like I said earlier, I am slightly surprised by the result. But to be fair, this was not part of our HOT TIPS category so we wouldn’t have taken a big hit on the bankroll.
    Glad to hear you had a good day as even though Mugu lost, she made us happy overall on betting and trading fronts!
    Patrick

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  Profitcsinalo Posted June 4, 2014 10:02 am

  Thanks for the detailed reply. Also, I very liked you have written match previews for the trading tips.
  Unfortunately I followed the original trading tip, so backed Berdych and lost the trade with -4 unit. After that I layed Gulbis and didn’t use SP because I hoped for Berdych fight back. So overall I lost 7.33 unit on the Berdych vs Gulbis match.

  “I personally wouldn’t have laid Berdych immediately and would’ve given sometime, maybe at least 3 or 4 games in the second set to see if Gulbis serves are starting to fade.”

  If I follow this strategy and I see that Berdych becomes good I will lose the momentum because Gulbis odds will rise, so laying Gulbis after 3-4 games is not so profitable. Maybe the odds become 2 or even more, so I think backing Berdych again is the good move. What do you think?

  Overall the day was very profitable.

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  • 
    Patrick Ross Posted June 4, 2014 6:29 pm

    Hi Kristof
    If you are had already lost -4 units after the first set, you really have to have a good look at the stats. Gulbis was returning serves much better than Berdych here so I WOULD NOT recommend laying him straight away. The best strategy that I can advise is getting into a Gulbis game when he is 0-15 at the start to negate some of your losses. However there are always risks associated with it. You will have to trade out the market quickly in such case as putting a stop loss etc will be time consuming. SCALPING THROUGH SERVICE GAMES would be the ideal choice.
    Basically, there are always risks involved but the most important thing NOT TO DO is to put a big stake on the favourite Gulbis (even though he was cruising here). That’s a major mistake as you will be getting low odds with high risked stakes. I’ve seen this mistake being made by even some pro-traders and let me highlight the fact that while 70% of the time, you might be right, the remaining 30% is likely going to cost you a heavily..
    But as you pointed out, overall it was indeed a good day for us..Well done again for that!
    Patrick

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