Betfair Tennis Trading Tips ATP/WTA Friday 12th July 2013

Friday’s Tips:

All times are UK/Irish and are subject to change:

BUDAPEST WTA:

1. 11:15 – Beck v Meusburger

BACK HEAVY!

BH on [email protected], [email protected]

Consider a possible 3 setter here even if Beck wins the first set
easily…If Beck loses the first set, keep her side still in some
profit. I don’t see her losing tomorrow

2. 15:45 – Peer v Cadantu

Lay [email protected], [email protected]

HALL OF FAME ATP:

3. 16:00 – Karlovic v Isner

I’ve to favour Isner here but what a match this is going to be. Battle
of the ACE MACHINES!!

Back [email protected], [email protected]

ITALIA OPEN WTA:

4. 15:00 – Voracova v Candela

Prices are not proper yet, Laying Candela is the right strategy for me
as Voracova is one of the Dark Horses of this tournament!

Lay Candela @ (initial price) , [email protected] 30 decimals up!

MERCEDES CUP:

5. 11:15 – Hanescu v Paire

Back [email protected], [email protected]

6. 14:00 – Haas v Fognini

I wouldn’t be surprised if Haas chokes tomorrow. However going with
him at the start is safer I feel..

Back [email protected], [email protected]

7. 15:15 – Monfils v Kohli

Lay [email protected], [email protected]

Consider a 3 setter if Kohli wins the first set easily!

SWEDISH OPEN:

8. 11:15 – Verdasco v Almagro

LAY HEAVY!

LH on [email protected], [email protected]

I expect this to be a very tough match for Almagro. I wouldn’t be
surprised if Verdasco wins comfortably..

9. 13:00 – Ramos v Berlocq

Back [email protected], [email protected]

Good luck for all the matches..

Please read the articles below if you are new to the tips!

Some Terms Explained:

Back: Low Stakes – use 10% of bank.
Back Heavy(BH) – use up to 30% of bank.
Lay: Low stakes – use 10% of bank.
Lay Heavy(LH) – use up to 30% of bank.
Possible 3 Setter – Worth considering laying the winner of the first set.

Help and Advice: The Best Way to Use Tips From Tennis Trading League

Help and Advice: Letting the Trade Run…

Help and Advice: What Do The Stats Say?

Help and Advice: In-Depth Trading

Help and Advice: Heavy Favourite in the Red Zone

Help and Advice: Greening Out

Help and Advice: The Golden Green

Help and Advice: Dealing with a Bad Streak

Help and Advice: Multiple Trades during a Match

Help and Advice: What should you do if your player gets injured in a tennis match that you’re trading? Find out here…

Help and advice: What do you do if a Back Heavy Tip isn’t going your way? Find out here…

Help and Advice: Dangers of chasing an in-form player

Some folks have asked why I call the tips ‘Betfair Tennis Trading Tips’ and have asked if the tips can be used on other betting exchanges. I use Betfair for all my trading because Betfair has the best liquidity. All of my prices are taken from Betfair.
Betfair Tennis Trading gives you the best opportunities to make profits. You can use the trading tips on other sites – there may be small price differences – but these should not matter. If you decide to use a site other that Betfair for trading, make sure that the liquidity is there.
If you’re unsure about what liquidity is required, see question 17 on my FAQ section at https://tennis-trading-league.com/faq/

8 Comments

  • Mariusz Grzyb Posted July 12, 2013 7:34 am

    In Sweden conditions are very windy. In last match Almagro was down quickly 0-5 in first set against Garcia before he won. Interesting match will be Dimitrov against Monaco. Monaco is 3-0 H2H but his odds are too low in my opinion. Haas can only get tired. He played lots of tennis recently for his age. Otherwise before home crowd he should win easily. In Paire match he is H2H against Hanescu and Hanescu played very well so far. In Berdych match i would back Berdych if he has some trouble against De Bakker initially like he had with Ahlund. We had some comebacks in Sweden already. Dimitrov lost first set 6-1 to Volandri before he won comfortably.

  • Silvana Siskov Posted July 12, 2013 4:22 pm

    Hi Patrick, can you please tell me how you did trading in following matches today: Beck v Meusburger, which you suggested back heavy, also Haas v Fognini and Peer v Cadantu which is playing at the moment and Peer just lost 1st set 6-0. Thank you.

    • Patrick Ross Posted July 12, 2013 7:05 pm

      Hi Silvana

      The Beck v Meusberger will be resulted as successful even though she
      lost in two sets. The reason being, delayed trading would have easily
      got you much higher odds and then Meusberger became a rather big
      outsider as she was a break down twice in the first set. Haas vs
      Fognini obviously will be a loser. Peer v Cadantu again simply went
      against us as she was extremely poor in the first set.

      You would have kept out of trouble if you delayed trading. The
      only one I suggested as BH was the Beck Match and that was
      successful as odds of at least 2 were easily attainable before she
      broke Meusberger to bring the latter’s odds to over 3.2 which was more
      than what I was after!

      Also it’s worth pointing out the other BH on Verdasco was spot on so
      overall it wasn’t a bad day!

      Thanks!

  • Silvana Siskov Posted July 12, 2013 7:16 pm

    I don’t agree that match between Beck v Meusberger is counted as successful as her odds never got even close to 1.2 which is what you suggested and that’s what I was waiting for. And yes, it’s true that Beck broke her opponent’s serve twice in the first set, bet her serve was broken immediately. That’s why her odds never went under 1.4 I think. Therefore it’s not successful.

    • Patrick Ross Posted July 12, 2013 8:05 pm

      Hi Silvana

      Obviously it seems you didn’t delay your trade at all. Let me be clear
      why this would be successful. Our initial back price I gave was 1.54
      and lay price, 1.2. Difference in price is 34 decimals.

      Now what you should have done was delayed the match as it was a HIGH
      STAKED match! This means you want to get the best possible odds. In
      the second game of this match Beck was 0-40 down which made her odds
      shoot up to 2.25. I am not saying you should have definitely taken
      2.25 but you could have in theory targeted at least 1.85. That would
      have meant even if it went to 2.2 or more, after Beck held her game
      and then broke Meusberger her odds went to 1.4 which is more than my
      target of 35 decimals easily! There were a few matches in the past
      where I have graded certain markets as successful for good reasons.
      If, on the other hand, you had taken 1.85 (presumably at 0-30 score)
      and Beck actually did get broken, this means you could have given her
      a chance to break back in her next game. If indeed she didn’t do that
      as well, then you would obviously have to trade out with some sort of
      loss.

      The whole point is again that we are targeting the price difference
      and not the price itself! Obviously from what I read from your message
      you did not delay this trade at all. It’s a clay court event and I
      have pointed out numerous times the advantages of delaying trading on
      clay in a few of my articles. See https://tennis-trading-league.com/tennis-trading-advice-using-tips-from-tennis-trading-league/

      I hope you understood the reason now. Indeed the Verdasco match had a
      similar scenario where he was the first player to give away break
      points. All I am asking you is to take better odds if possible. Men’s
      serve % are definitely better than women’s and so you should have
      considered delaying at least for a couple of games (in this case, that
      was all what was needed to achieve a more than 40 decimal swing!)

      No one is trying to be a Nostradamus by predicting the exact score or
      guarantee a winner. That’s never my point. It is trading after all and
      all of us are after the swing in odds. Obviously I am favouring
      certain players by form. Beck did start well and had break points in
      the first game. But after having breaks up twice, she just looked
      exhausted. Now none of us can predict the sudden collapse of a player.
      That is why I stress the fact that if you put money on someone with
      high stakes, always consider delaying as that will most likely help
      you. All you do is adjust the price accordingly. By the way, to
      mention the actual swing in market for this match, it went from 2.25
      on Beck to 1.4. That is an 85 decimal swing. Less than half of that
      was what my target was. Hence this should be successful easily..

      Thanks again for your comment

      Good luck

      Patrick

  • Mariusz Grzyb Posted July 13, 2013 7:49 am

    Its a very difficult task to balance a straight tipster service with trading with targets like tips with trading range to Back or Lay. The targets given here represent usually 1 break of serve which is very difficult to predict. In Beck match if she broke her opponent in first game her odds would hit 1.3 from 1.54. If it happened at 5-5 her odds would probably hit bit lower and 1.2 was suggested. I was wrong about Haas too but right about Hanescu. Delaying trade in Beck case would work but seems a bit of reversed engineering. I did not follow Beck match but i would take a smaller profit if she had break points or broke early in the match. No brainer tactic is sometimes backing server if he is 0-30 or 0-40 down. Not much to lose in any case even if he loses serve but much to gain if he scores 1 or 2 points. In women’s case it does not matter who serves or receives hehe.

  • john knight Posted July 13, 2013 9:52 am

    The problem with trading tennis of three sets is you could do with avoiding the third set, hence being out of the match at the first set is highly recommended.I watched Berdych vs De Bakker, who he had never lost even a set to,odds of 1.09 and he was beaten in two sets.When i say avoid third sets in this case it was the very volatile 2nd set,the odds were wild.but matches are over very quickly sometimes.
    Look how well Verdasco served against Murry a couple of weeks ago, and yesterday neither him or Almagro could hold there serve for near 5 games in succession, it was a bit of a lottery watching them stumble and fumble double faulting Verdasco at game and set points made it entertaining, but from a trading view point a good job it was trade over.
    To be fair to the players the better of them rank wise look tired at the moment, with the lesser players playing for there lives,and looking interested in the lesser prize money tournaments.Its there time to shine,since most will never get a look in ate the majors.

  • john knight Posted July 13, 2013 10:03 am

    Delaying before you jump in is something that Patrick has stated half a dozen times since ive been with the service,getting better odds is probably the best piece of advice ive heard here.If you jump in from the off you are simply wishing it all goes well.Having not seen a ball struck, as with Berdych yesterday would of been a huge mistake if you had fancied that match for a few ticks profit.However during and after the first set you could get 1.27/37…….much better.and indeed he did plummet back down to 1.05 …….just an example.Another tactic maybe is to drip feed your stake in from the off if you player is performing poorly as i did a few times over wimbledon……..You only need a bit of a turnaround and the green screen tend to be there to either just break even or give a nice profit.

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