Betfair Tennis Trading Tips – Wimbledon Day 11 Friday 5th July


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Friday’s Tips:

Welcome everyone to Day 10 of Wimbledon.

I’m going to add a few extras for Wimbledon. This would include tips to lay 3-0
Set Winners and also Handicap markets which are worth considering.

The 3-0 Set Lay tips would be displayed in short form as ‘3 LAY’
The Handicap Market would be displayed as ‘HCAP’

Take one tip at a time and focus on that for
your trades. As usual, stick to the HOT TIPS more! For the first few
days, we will follow the norm in tips, but after the second round starts,
we will have Back Heavy and some other new strategies as mentioned.

On to the tips for today…

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All times are UK/Irish and are subject to change:

1. 13:00 – Djokovic v Del Potro

The only person who hasn’t been tested yet in Wimbledon is Djokovic! I
feel that may happen today.

Option 1:

You can consider laying something very small on Djokovic early on as
it’s worth a try.

Lay [email protected], [email protected]

(Keep the stakes very low here)

My best opinion however, is to wait out the first set completely. The
first set is crucial here. If Del Potro somehow wins it, this match
may become very interesting. If Djokovic wins it, it could be over
soon!

Option 2:

Considering Djoko has won the first set with a score line of 6-4, I
expect the odds to be around 1.07.

Lay [email protected], back @1.18

If Djokovic has won the second set comfortably as well, lay him for 1.02 or 1.03

If it does end up as a big upset, expect a 5 setter. I do not think
Del Potro can beat him in 3 or 4!

2. 15:00 – Andy Murray v Janowicz

BACK HEAVY!

I am highly confident on Murray winning this. His first test was over
against Verdasco where eventhough Murray was in trouble, his odds
hardly hit 2.5. That’s a major point to note. This time around, I
would be surprised if his odds hit even 1.6!

BACK HEAVY on [email protected], [email protected]

The key to Murray winning today will be his return percentage.
Janowicz is an excellent server but if there is one guy who returns
the ball as well as Djokovic it is Murray. On the other hand,
the biggest question for Janowicz is if he can handle the constant
defensive game of Murray. I do not think so!

The worst case scenario here is Jano doing what Verdasco did, winning
the first 2 sets. In the most unlikely case that happens, put your
money on Murray immediately. I had mentioned this strategy in the
Verdasco match. I do not worry about that happening again having said
this!

Other points to note: Any odds of 1.5 or above on Murray, is
definitely value. So keep backing Murray!

The only reason you should trade out Murray is if he calls the trainer
and shows a serious injury concern. In such a case market will react
straightaway. If there is no major injury and the market is still
reacting, DO NOT PANIC!

WOMENS DOUBLES:

3. 14:15 – Groenefeld/Peschke v Barty/Dellacqua:

Backing Groenefeld/Peschke seems right early on. However if they do
win the first set easily definitely consider laying them. As a
‘comeback team’ Barty and Dellacqua have been rather amazing!

Back Groenefeld/Peschke @1.57, [email protected]

4. 14:15 – Aoyama/Scheepers v Hsieh/Peng

Both teams have caused shock upsets so far. I expect a possible 3 setter here.

Backing Peng/Hsieh maybe the right strategy early on. However keep the
stakes low here!

Back Peng/[email protected], [email protected]

As always, watch out for liquidity for the Doubles!!

BH and Hot Tip = Andy Murray!!

Good luck for tomorrow!

Help and Advice: The Best Way to Use Tips From Tennis Trading League

Help and Advice: What Do The Stats Say?

Help and Advice: Wildly Fluctuating Markets

Help and Advice: In-Depth Trading

Help and Advice: Heavy Favourite in the Red Zone

Help and Advice: Greening Out

Help and Advice: The Golden Green

Help and Advice: Dealing with a Bad Streak

Help and Advice: Multiple Trades during a Match

Help and Advice: What should you do if your player gets injured in a tennis match that you’re trading? Find out here…

Help and advice: What do you do if a Back Heavy Tip isn’t going your way? Find out here…

Help and Advice: Dangers of chasing an in-form player

Some folks have asked why I call the tips ‘Betfair Tennis Trading Tips’ and have asked if the tips can be used on other betting exchanges. I use Betfair for all my trading because Betfair has the best liquidity. All of my prices are taken from Betfair.
Betfair Tennis Trading gives you the best opportunities to make profits. You can use the trading tips on other sites – there may be small price differences – but these should not matter. If you decide to use a site other that Betfair for trading, make sure that the liquidity is there.
If you’re unsure about what liquidity is required, see question 17 on my FAQ section at https://tennis-trading-league.com/faq/

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7 Comments

  • Mariusz Grzyb Posted July 5, 2013 8:45 am

    As Patrick mentioned before i would put my money on Murray for outright. Now its 3.0 and i would watch Djokovic match. If Djokovic has a problem Murray will drop.
    He can not go over 3 before a start of his match.

  • Victor Romaniv Posted July 5, 2013 3:43 pm

    Don’t you know why there is such a delay for Murray game? Are there any changes in how we should trade?

    • Patrick Ross Posted July 5, 2013 4:23 pm

      It’s because the Djokovic/Del Potro game is still going on! Murray will play after this match. No changes to how you should trade the Murray match…

  • Victor Romaniv Posted July 5, 2013 7:18 pm

    Patrick, it is -40% on Murray now, should I ttade out now or do not panic?

    • Patrick Ross Posted July 5, 2013 7:49 pm

      Hi Victor – I just seen your comment now… As I said in the tips, do not panic!

  • Mariusz Grzyb Posted July 6, 2013 6:42 am

    There is nothing certain in tennis. In Djoko match at the end of 4 set Potro barely walked but he managed to win it. He was going for outright winners and it worked. I was tempted to put my money on Djoko to win a match at this point but Potro came back in breaker. In 5 set he got some energy back due to med timeouts and made it close. Murray outright went as high as 3.3 fro 3 but due to Djoko struggle hit 2.7 or lower at some point. It was bit risky but worked. Best moment for trading was Murray’s first set breaker. I decided to back Jano as stated in earlier post and was happy to see Murray’s odds go from 1.2 to 1.6 territory. It was the time when Victor panicked but hopefully he managed to avoid any loss.

  • john knight Posted July 6, 2013 10:43 am

    FABULOUS DAYS TENNIS,what a great two matches.surprised at how well murry handled the serve, and not surprised at the endless belief that the world no one has,i do feel however that murry will have to win the match in 4 sets to have a chance here.
    I carnt see past lisicki for this, if you look at who she has beaten to get here it has to be a dream match for a final for her.Plus she has been down virtually identical score lines against the no 4 and no 1 seeds and won, so her temprement is not in doubt.

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