Finals Day Tips:
ATP Copa Claro:
1. Ferrer v Wawrinka:
Definitely the match of the tournament here! If Wawrinka plays as well
as he did yesterday he definitely has a chance in this. But you only
can say you ‘can beat’ Ferrer after you do it! That’s how good that
guy is on clay.
Safest option: Wait out the first set. If Wawrinka wins it, lay him
(provided there is no injury concern on Ferrer)
Else, back Ferrer (not heavy). Your money should be more in Ferrer’s
side even if he is down a break. I am not 100% confident how this
match is going to turn out so do not put heavy stakes in this match!
But if I were to predict it, it may go to Ferrer easily or a tight 3
setter. Still, Ferrer to take the title here for me!
Application: Back Ferrer @1.34, lay @1.25 (dont go too low here for lay odds)
WTA Copa Colsanitas:
2. Jankovic v Ormaechea:
I definitely think Ormaechea has a chance here. Hence lay Jankovic at
the start (not heavy!)
S: Lay Jankovic @1.4, back @1.6
I am going for Ormaechea as her serve looked ok yesterday. Jankovic is
coming through a tough game yesterday so she may very well be tired!
Open 13:
3. Berdych v Tsonga:
Too easy wins for both of these guys yesterday. This for me could be
very much a flip of a coin. Odds are favouring Berdych here @1.67. I
disagree with that. If Tsonga plays as good as he did in demolishing
Simon yesterday, he will win this title!
S: Lay Berdych @1.7, back @2.3
I feel Berdych odds will go up, still don’t trade heavy in this match
straight away as that could easily get you in the Red Zone!
ATP Memphis:
4. Nishikori v Lopez:
Another tough one to call as Lopez is very good in hard courts. I did
however predict the winner of Nishikori v Cilic match to be very
likely the winner for this tournament. Hence
Nishikori odds should go down for me.
S: Back Nishi @1.35, lay @1.2
I haven’t given any back heavy match for today as all of them can be
very close matches. If however I am to pick one as a HOT TIP, I would
go for Tsonga to beat Berdych today!
That’s it for today.
Good luck!
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1 Comment
Hi Brian
Thanks for your comment.
‘Normal trade’ would be in the 10% range (sometimes up to 20%, for eg. if you do see injury issues arising and want to lay the injured player more!)
Heavy trade I normally put it from 20-30%. However I rarely go for 40 % straight away but would stick with around 20-30%.
Extra heavy is obviously the most risky with 30-40% of your bank roll and there should be real good reasons to go for this. So far I haven’t mentioned a lot of extra heavy matches. The one I did last was the Serena v Sharapova match in Qatar that Serena won in easy 2 sets with odds of 1.4 and was successful. However I would really analyse the situation match by match before giving extra heavy tips always!
Free money is a general clause I use for a very high degree of chance for a player to win. Meaning, you don’t literally have to back the player then and there, but if you are trading, you should want your money to be on the player I tip, whatever the stake or % of bankroll you plan to invest in.
In relation to the game you pointed out between Tsonga and Tomic here’s my answer:
Tomic winning the first set here didn’t really matter as this trade was successful before that. Meaning, the odds of 1.3 on Tsonga dipped to less than 1.2 easily at least 2 times before he got broken and lost the set. So all you had to do was back Tsonga at the start and give the lay price already @1.18 and that would have easily got matched and got you in the Green Zone! However assuming, you went for a lower odds which did not get matched, you obviously have the option to wait out for few games in the second which would mean Tsonga broke early and your losses would be minimal.
Assuming this match was a very wild one to trade, I would always trade out. Tsonga for me was the overall superior player and deserved to win. Nevertheless, like I mentioned earlier, Tsonga losing the set did not interfere in the strategy given by me as that was easily successful early on in the first set!
Thank you and good luck 🙂
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