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Pinnacle Trading Tip: Agut V Sousa 1st November + Post Match Analysis

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TODAY’S PINNACLE TIP AS FOLLOWS:

MATCH: BAUTISTA-AGUT (SPAIN) VS JOAO SOUSA (PORTUGAL)

EVENT: ATP VALENCIA

START TIME: 14:00 UK TIME

TIP: BACK AGUT @1.48, LAY @1.18

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

PLAYER FORM & COMPARISON:

Sousa put on a decent show at St.Petersburg where he reached the final and only lost to Raonic in a deciding set affair. After this, his form was a bit off losing in early rounds at Malaysia, Japan, China and Russia.

Agut,on the other hand has lost only 2 matches in his last 10 and has continued the good momentum into his home tournament here in Valencia with some really impressive wins.

Game comparison:

There probably isn’t a huge amount of difference in terms of the actual game between these two, as both are playing pretty aggressive at the moment and don’t rely on their serve alone. In fact, both are decent returners and willing to fight through long rallies tiring out their opponents.

The key stat in distinguishing these two could therefore be form itself. I agree he should be the favourite, especially that he is playing in front of his home fans.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

The toughest challenge for Agut so far came from Steve Johnson in the previous round, who has been on fire recently. The Spaniard came very close to losing that match and had to save a few match points before ending up victorious. The problem facing Agut was that the American is a pretty decent server. Sousa however, isn’t. This should therefore favour Agut more in my opinion.

While a 3 setter cannot be entirely ignored, a 2 set Agut win seems to make more sense.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Assuming Agut can serve out his games without too many problems, there is more reason to believe he will get chances in Sousa’s service games.
I suggest backing a stake of 2% of your bank on the favourite at the starting price and laying @1.18.

Not suggesting delaying the trade here, as this could very well turn out to be one-way traffic from start to finish in Agut’s favour.

Our potential profit is close to 25% of the stake.

Worst case scenario:

If Sousa continues his good form and starts well here, I suggest backing Agut at a price close to 2.5.

If Agut comes back from a set down to force a decider, trade out the match before the 3rd set begins.

For today’s tip, if the match turns out to be tricky to trade, I would consider 15% profit as something decent to Green out.

Good Luck!

Patrick

ANALYSIS

Injury played a major role in Agut’s loss in this match. However, from a trading point of view, we had no trouble as the Spaniard was dominant in the first set and even had an early break in the 2nd. Sousa’s odds was flirting around 30.00 at this time!!

The match looked very likely to end in 2 sets but unfortunately for the home crowd, injury to their player meant this was going the distance and Sousa just pounced on the opportunity to cause a shock.

This is our 4th consecutive win for Pinnacle..

Screenshot of Sousa’s price movement as follows:

sousa price movement - pinnacle 27

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