Pinnacle Trading Tip: BARTHEL V DOI 25th October + Post Match Analysis

TODAY’S TIP AS FOLLOWS:

MATCH: MISAKI DOI (JAPAN) VS MONA BARTHEL (GERMANY)

EVENT: WTA LUXEMBOURG

START TIME: 14:00 UK TIME

TIP: LAY BARTHEL @1.47, BACK @2.7

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : CAN BE CONSIDERED -> LAY PRICE RANGE : 1.34 – 1.4

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Both are naturally aggressive-minded players.
While Mona Barthel could have the better serve, Misaki Doi’s performance so far suggests that the Japanese girl can return pretty well against decent opposition and dominate rallies.

Since her US Open loss to Bencic (a match she should have really won), Misaki Doi couldn’t get any groove on with early losses in Japan, China and Austria. However, her form so far in Luxembourg has been quite extraordinary as she beat some tough players like Petkovic, Allertova and Jankovic.
While on paper Barthel is a big favourite, Doi’s no-fear attitude seems to have worked in her favour so far. This creates a genuine possibility of an upset if she is aggressive from the very start.

Personally, I believe the bookies may have priced this market wrongly and we could very well see the underdog coming out on top.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

The serves are going to be crucial for both players today. From what I’ve seen, Doi, even though has the weaker serve, makes up for it through her brutal return games. This means if Barthel gets broken at the start, there is a chance that Doi could run away with this match.

A deciding set is a possibility, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Doi wins in 2!

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

I see a tough first set for Barthel today as Doi has impressed me with her return games so far. As per the tip, we are laying Barthel at the start with our 2% stake and backing at a price around 2.7. The reason why I feel this is a reasonable back price is because if indeed Doi breaks first, the markets are likely to swing in her favour soon considering her previous wins over some really tough players, especially Jelena Jankovic. So it might be worth giving a decent back price after all rather than going for a smaller tick difference.

While Stop Losses are not recommended, delaying the trade early on can be considered to fetch better lay prices. A lay price range between 1.34 and 1.4 would be more meaningful. Anything less than 1.34 is pushing it.

Assuming you traded without any delaying, our potential profit for this tip is slightly above 96% of the stake making this a very profitable tip.

Worst case scenario:

I cannot say for sure that Doi will win this comfortably as Barthel has enough weapons in her game. If the German starts out extremely well, I suggest backing Doi at a high price of 6.5 with your remaining 1%.

As per current form, Doi is less likely to lose this one easily.

As always, any profits close to 20-25% is always good to trade out!

Good Luck!

ANALYSIS

Not only was this a LAY tip on a pretty big favourite like Mona Barthel, I had intentionally gone for a higher tick difference of 2.7 Back Odds which had close to a 100% profit.

As I had predicted, Doi came out aggressive and broke Mona in the very first game and never even gave a break point in the entire 1st set making our strategy successful rather comfortably. She could have probably won this in 2 sets but eventually turned out to bagel Barthel in a 3rd set hammering. No doubt the right player won today so well done to all those who took my advice.

Screenshot of Doi’s market movements shown below.

Patrick