MATCH: BELINDA BENCIC (SWITZERLAND) V TIMEA BABOS (HUNGARY)
EVENT: AUSTRALIAN OPEN
START TIME: 02:00 UK TIME
TIP: LAY BENCIC @1.3, BACK @1.85
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : CAN BE CONSIDERED
Two very aggressive players facing each other here.
Not only do these two have a ton of power in their arsenal, but can also serve pretty well.Defensively, I believe both are quite similar so we are in for a mouthwatering encounter between Switzerland and Hungary.
What’s worth noting is that Babos has lost just once in her previous 10 matches. Also she has won 8 of those matches in 2 sets which included wins against decent hard court players like Doi, Niculescu and Bouchard at Shenzhen,China. No doubt the Hungarian has stepped up her game just in time for the Australian Open.
Bencic’s form isn’t that shabby either with decent wins against Pironkova and Makarova at Sydney last week. However, she did lose to Samantha Crawford in 2 sets at Brisbane which was quite a shock.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
Her endurance levels were tested against Heather Watson in the previous round, but Babos eventually came through in flying colours. No doubt Bencic is one tough cookie to crack but I believe the Hungarian has the goods to outwit her Swiss opponent today.
Overall, what I see unfolding here is a shock win for the underdog who is good enough to comeback from a set behind.
The best case scenario for us at the start is Bencic serving poorly and Babos doing the opposite. Personally, I believe Babos’ serve is quite hard to break.
If such a situation arises, laying Bencic could prove to be very profitable as even a 2 set win for the underdog is on the cards.
Stake 2% of your bank by laying the Swiss at the start and backing at 1.85.
While no stop losses are considered for this match, delaying the trade to fetch better lay prices on Bencic could prove meaningful. My suggested range for delaying is 1.18 – 1.25. Anything lower than 1.18 is pushing it.
Bear in mind delaying is completely optional. If you choose not to delay, the potential profit is around 100% of the stake which makes this a very valuable tip.
Worst case scenario:
Our worst case scenario must be taken very seriously today as Bencic odds are quite low which means we could leak money quite rapidly. Hence, by all means do not risk heavy at the start. If you are taking calculated risks, consider doing it with smaller lay prices.
So what is the worst situation for us here?
Well, fact of the matter is that Bencic is a very good server who has improved a lot in 2015. She can race away quickly with the first set with a likely score of 6-1 or 6-2 which means you should closely monitor the serves of both players at the start.
If indeed Bencic starts great, I suggest investing your remaining 1% at odds of 7 on Babos. The odds can shoot up to 8 or 9 but 7 is good enough for us.
Assuming Babos fought back to force a decider, I suggest trading out the market with your healthy profits before the 3rd set begins.
There is reason to re-invest some of your greened-out profits in the 3rd set. Stick to backing Babos if you do consider this option.
Let’s hope Timea can get the job done here without too much drama!
As always, any profits between 20-25% is always good to trade out!
Our first unsuccessful tip of the year as Babos showed no consistency and Bencic was pretty brutal from the word GO. We just lost to the better player on the day!