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Pinnacle Trading Tip: Djokovic v Federer & Analysis

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MATCH:  DJOKOVIC (SERBIA) VS FEDERER (SWITZERLAND)

EVENT: AUSTRALIAN OPEN SEMI FINAL

START TIME: 08:30 UK TIME

TIP: BACK DJOKOVIC @1.37, LAY @1.14

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 5% TOTAL (4% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

FORM AND GAME COMPARISON:

Form of both players is extremely impressive.
Roger has had just one loss in his last 10 games which was to Raonic at
Brisbane. The Swiss maestro has played extremely well
at the Australian Open so far and only had one decent challenge yet
which came from Dimitrov. However, he went on to win quite comfortably
in 4 sets.
Not surprisingly, Novak’s form is even better.
Simply put, the Serbian has 2 losses in his last 40 games!!
Interesting that both losses came against his arch rival, Federer. The
first loss came way back in August while the more recent one happened in
the ATP Finals at London in the group matches.
Both are equally aggressive players. While Federer could be the better
server, Djokovic should get the credit for being the better defensive
player who can turn around any rallies in his favour with sheer power
and aggression.
The key advantage for the World No.1 is his age and therefore the
fitness levels.
Overall, while I think this is a mouthwatering match on paper, I can’t
see the Serbian losing.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

I have to agree with the bookies today as Novak Djokovic should be a
heavy favourite against ‘the Fed’. While the Serbian had a tough
encounter against Gilles Simon of France, it must be noted that he was
always ahead in that match. In a nutshell, it is incredibly hard for
anyone at the moment to match Novak for endurance levels. Such is the
form and confidence of this guy.
My prediction would be on Djokovic winning this match in 4 sets. Even a
3 set win looks quite possible for the Serbian!

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Last year at both the Wimbledon and US Open Finals, Federer began by
losing the first set to the Djoker. He went on to lose both matches in 4
sets.
In order for Federer to have any sort of chance in this match, he MUST
therefore win the 1st set. I believe, Novak knows that fact and should
therefore be desperate to start well.
Hence, I believe your money must be on Novak at the start.
Stake 4% of your bank on Novak by backing him at the starting price and
laying him @1.14. No stop losses are considered for this tip.
Considering this is going to be a ‘night’ match, I expect Novak to
hold his serve much better than he did against Simon. Therefore, no
point in delaying the trade to fetch better back prices.
Your potential profit is 20% of your stake.

Worst case scenario:

As mentioned, Federer gave Djokovic his last 2 losses. Both wins for the
Swiss came in 2 sets. Assuming he starts well here, I suggest backing
Djoko with your remaining 1% stake at odds of 2.
Personally, I can’t see Novak getting dominated by Roger at any stage
in this encounter.
Considering our back price is quite low today, I feel any profits above
10% is good enough to trade out early, should you wish to.

Good luck!

ANALYSIS

No problems whatsoever in this tip as Novak was breathtaking in the first two sets losing a mere 3 games in total!! Our trade was quite easily successful therefore!

As predicted Novak ended up winning in 4 sets with a final scoreline of 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-3. Disappointing for Federer fans but what a display of Tennis from the World No.1!

​Patrick

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