PINNACLE TIP #10
MATCH: ERRANI (ITALY) v S.ZHENG (CHINA)
EVENT: WTA GUANGZHOU
START TIME: 10:30 UK TIME
TIP: LAY ERRANI @1.6, BACK @2.4
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
Even though her serves are not top class, the veteran Sara Errani makes it up with her bone-breaking rallies and absolute determination to chase down every ball. This is one huge weapon that no player can take away from the Italian.
While Zheng’s general gameplan and attributes may not match up against her experienced opponent, what is definitely worth looking into is her current form.
The Chinese girl played really well at Japan recently beating a very tough Alison Riske and another tricky opponent in Falconi, only to lose to the experience of Christina McHale in a tight 3 setter. She carried on that form here in Guangzhou with an absolute hammering of Krunic in the first round and beats Kontaveit in another 2 setter. To put it simply, if Errani doesn’t bring her A game, this could end up as a very tough challenge.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
So far Errani needed two 3 setters to get past two Chinese opponents. The main reason for that is her serve. It simply hasn’t been consistent enough.
Therefore, my general prediction for this match is the odds to jump on Errani pretty quickly considering the fact that Zheng has been spot on thus far with an aggressive gameplan.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saisai causes an upset here!
Our strategy is to lay Errani immediately. I do not recommend delaying the trade as Saisai has been thoroughly impressive on returning serves in the past week or so. I am going to trust the Chinese girl’s aggression here.
As per the tip Lay Errani for 2% stake at the start and Back her @2.4.
Our profit is around 55% of the stake, making this a very meaningful trade.
I suggest trading out completely at this stage.
Worst case scenario:
A quick start for Errani cannot be ignored as she does have enough experience. If that is the case, I suggest giving an advance Back price of 4 on Zheng.
So far Errani has struggled in both her matches and considering Saisai is the best of all the opponents the Italian has faced yet, a deciding set looks promising.
I suggest to trade out before the third set begins as you must have achieved a decent profit by now!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
It looked like a good start for us as Saisai Zheng broke Errani in the very first game of the match. What followed was 12 straight games in a row for the Italian to win this match 6-1 6-0!
Pretty unbeleivable that this turned out to be such a one sided affair as the underdog had beaten some quality players like Kontaveit and Krunic already in China.
Overall, I must say such a result was very hard to foresee and the bookies had priced this match rightly in my opinion. It’s just that Saisai didn’t turn up on the day after a couple of really good weeks, probably the best two in her entire career!
A result worth forgetting I must admit!