MATCH: KOZLOVA (UKRAINE) VS HIBINO (JAPAN)
EVENT: WTA TASHKENT
START TIME: 08:30 UK TIME
TIP: BACK KOZLOVA @1.54, LAY @1.18
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 2% TOTAL (1.5% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
Not to say a lot about these two players as they are still pretty new on the WTA scene. However in relation to our tip, what’s most important is present form.
In summary, Nao Hibino hasn’t beaten anyone worth mentioning in recent matches. On the other hand, Kateryna Kozlova was thoroughly impressive against Martic, Koukalova and a very tricky Siniakova. In fact all three got beaten in 2 sets which is quite a solid statement of the Ukranian’s performance and consistency so far in Tashkent.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
Kozlova’s scorelines against Martic and Koukalova were 6-1 6-3 and 6-4 6-0 respectively. If she can keep up that level, expect another easy win for the favourite.
I am rather confident on Kozlova playing pretty well today which implies that we should back her at the beginning. I suggest investing a stake of 1.5% on her at the start.
Higher stakes could have been considered had there been more liquidity in this market. Therefore my suggestion is to be safe with small or medium sized stakes.
Assuming we are successful by backing Kozlova @1.54 and laying @1.18, your profit is close to 30% of stake.
Trade out the market at this stage.
Worst case scenario:
Hibino starting exceptionally well would be our worst case scenario. If she goes on to break Kozlova early on and continues that momentum, I suggest backing Koz at odds of 3 with your remaining 0.5% stake.
Since Kozlova has been on top gear throughout this tournament, a 2 set loss looks extremely unlikely.
As always any profits of 20-25% is always good to green out!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
A rather disappointing performance in general from Kozlova whose serves lacked any sting and was generally inconsistent throughout this match.
It looked as if our target was going to hit early on when Koz broke first. She saved a couple of break points in the next game to hold and got another break point. Once that was missed, this match went entirely in favour of Hibino.
We missed our target by around 4 or 5 ticks but in all honesty, we didn’t win this tip as the real Kozlova just didn’t turn up on the day.
To lose in 2 sets after being so consistent in Tashkent was pretty unthinkable I must admit.