MATCH: MLADENOVIC (FRANCE) V GIBBS (USA)
EVENT: AUSTRALIAN OPEN
START TIME: 05:30 UK TIME
TIP: BACK MLADENOVIC @1.59, LAY @1.25
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 4% TOTAL (3% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
Gibbs is probably the better defensive player here, but the serve and the general attacking mindset should probably point to the French girl Mladenovic.
Form is actually favouring Gibbs who has won 12 of her previous 15 games. However, what should also be noted is that majority of her opponents are not worth the mention.
Mladenovic form hasn’t been too good since the exhibition IPTL event as she lost both her opening round matches to fellow compatriots Cornet and Garcia at Brisbane and Sydney respectively. However, in my humble opinion, all that matters for Mladenovic is current confidence levels by playing well in Melbourne. And she did exactly that by dismantling a very tough player in Cibulkova in the first round by a 6-3 6-4 scoreline. Gibbs meanwhile made hard work of her match against Koukalova which she eventually won in 3 sets.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
If she could be as consistent as she was against Cibulkova, I believe Mladenovic is good enough to win this match in 2 sets again! The worry for Gibbs is her own service games, which I feel Mladenovic will have a better chance of breaking!
My entire confidence for this tip is due to the reliability of Mladenovic’s serves. Assuming she can continue to serve well, this trade should be successful sooner than later.
Medium or high stakes could be considered as I am expecting another strong performance from the French girl.
Stake 3% of your bank by backing Mlad at the beginning and lay @1.25.
No stop losses for this tip. Delaying the trade to fetch better back prices on Mladenovic is NOT suggested as she could run away with the first set quite easily.
Your potential profit for this trade is 27% of the invested stake.
Worst case scenario:
In the worst case her serves flop at the start and she ends up losing the 1st set, I suggest backing Mladenovic at odds of 3 with your remaining 1%.I am not expecting this to materialize easily.
Assuming Mlad fought back from a set down to force a decider, trade out the market in its entirety before the final set begins.
This tip was recommended for high stakes and indeed it was the perfect one to back big. Mladenovic was simply too good for Gibbs as she won the first set 6-1. She had a tougher challenge in the second set but eventually won it on a tie-break.
Pretty straightforward in the end!