MATCH: NADAL (SPAIN) VS RAONIC (CANADA)
EVENT: ATP SHANGHAI ROLEX MASTERS
START TIME: 11:00 UK TIME
TIP: BACK NADAL @1.6, LAY @1.2
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
While the Canadian relies heavily on his serves and brute force, Rafa Nadal is all about squeezing every bit of energy from opponents through long rallies.
Rafa has definitely had a torrid 2015 with tough losses to Berdych at the Australian Open, Djokovic at the French, a virtually unknown Dustin Brown at Wimbledon and another shock upset to Fognini at the US Open. Still, he played pretty well at the recent China Open to reach the final.
On paper this is a pretty close match to call, mainly because of Rafa’s unpredictable season. However, I believe the Spaniard is definitely improving his game at the moment which could mean that Raonic may indeed have a tough one today.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
While both players have had tough 3 setters in their earlier round, Raonic had to work harder facing a very tricky Bautista Agut. I believe the Canadian is likely to be more fatigued and hence find Rafa to be a mammoth challenge today. Also, an advantage for Rafa is that these courts are slower paced and therefore going to favour him more. Therefore, the longer the match goes, Nadal is likely to come out on top.
Personally, I would stick to a 3 or even 2 set win for Nadal.
The first set isn’t going to be the easiest. However, it must be noted that after losing his serve first to Karlovic yesterday, Nadal stormed back to win the set 7-5. With Raonic not looking as consistent as Karlo in the serving department, backing Nadal seems the right strategy here.
Delaying the trade is not recommended here as it is likely that Nadal might be the one starting better. As per the tip, invest 2% of your bank on Nadal @ the initial back price and lay him close to 1.2
The profit is close to 33% of stake.
Worst case scenario:
I am depending on Raonic’s serve inconsistency today. If he starts aggressively and breaks his opponent early on, back Nadal at a price of 3.00 with your remaining 1% stake.
There is a possibility of a tight encounter here and the market may indeed test you. Nevertheless, I suggest sticking to Rafa throughout the match and trading out only when our target of 1.2 is hit!
Remember, any profits of 20-25% is always good to green out!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
A tip with very little drama here. Rafa Nadal broke early and went onto win the first set comfortably – our target odds were easily achieved. A tighter second set between the two players but Rafa won the second set tie break to take the match 6-3 7-6. Another win keeps our positive momentum going.
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