Pinnacle Trading Tip: Osaka v Hibino 14th November + Post Match Analysis

TODAY’S PINNACLE TIP AS FOLLOWS:

MATCH: NAOMI OSAKA (JAPAN) VS NAO HIBINO (JAPAN)

EVENT: WTA HUA HIN – THAILAND

START TIME: 08:30 UK TIME

TIP: LAY HIBINO @1.6, BACK @2.1

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 2% TOTAL (1% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

PLAYER FORM & GAME ANALYSIS:

FORM:

After a thoroughly impressive performance at Tashkent in October, Hibino had two first round losses to lesser known hard court players in China. However, she has looked good so far in Thailand and is yet to lose a set.

Naomi Osaka on the other hand is more of an unknown and not so vastly experienced. With 3 deciding set matches already in the tournament, she is priced as the underdog here.

GAME ANALYSIS:

Watching these two play so far, I must admit that I’ve been more impressed with the underdog as even though she lost the first set in each of her 3 matches, she stormed back to blow her opponents away in the 3rd set. Also, her serve has had more sting compared to her Japanese compatriot Hibino.

I must give Osaka a chance today.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

While experience points to Hibino, current game and confidence could very well be with Osaka who has served amazingly well in Thailand.

While a 3rd set is more likely, I wouldn’t be surprised if Osaka manages to win this in 2 sets.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Hibino hasn’t looked her absolute best even though she hasn’t lost a set so far. Also, her serves haven’t been too problematic to return for her opponents.

Overall, assuming Osaka continues her aggressive game plan, I feel there is good enough reason to go in her favour today. Considering her serves have been solid so far, I do not suggest delaying the trades as it is very well possible that Hibino could be the one to start slower.

Stake 1% of your bank by laying Hibino at the beginning and backing her at a price of 2.1.

Your potential profit is 40% of the stake.

Worst case scenario:

Obviously the bookies have priced this market in favour of Hibino for her recent form, especially at Tashkent. If she plays very well at the beginning, I suggest waiting out the entire first set and then backing Osaka with your remaining 1% at whatever price you see. Presumably, you would be able to fetch prices close to 6 or 7 without much issue.

If Osaka fights back to win the 2nd set, I suggest trading out the market completely with your handsome profit!

Bear in mind, we have been very unlucky with a few players due to injuries in recent tips. If there is any sign of injury to Osaka at any point in this match, I do not suggest considering a second investment.

As always, any profits between 20-25% is always good to trade out.

Good Luck!

POST MATCH ANALYSIS

Naomi Osaka started pretty strong here with hold of her early service games and even had the first break point opportunity. Our target of 2.1 was hit precisely at this time.

However, Hibino went on to serve that game out and ended up breaking Osaka and winning the first set 6-4.

What followed was typical of Osaka’s performance so far in Thailand as she comes back with another scintillating exhibition of serving and completely dominated Hibino who had no answer to her compatriot’s brutal power.

A 4-6 6-3 6-1 comeback win proves why I favoured the underdog here in what was a thoroughly deserved win!

Screenshot below indicates Osaka’s price movement. Osaka’s odds just about hit the price of 6 after which it was all one way traffic!