Pinnacle Trading Tip: PAVLYUCHENKOVA V SAFAROVA & Analysis

TODAYS PINNACLE TIP AS FOLLOWS:

MATCH: PAVLYUCHENKOVA (RUSSIA) V SAFAROVA (CZECH REP.)

EVENT: WTA MOSCOW

START TIME: 09:00 UK TIME

TIP: LAY SAFAROVA @1.75, BACK @2.8

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:

Interesting that Lucie Safarova had quite an exceptional year until the start of the US Open. She currently has a 3 game losing streak coming into this match which includes a shock first round upset to Mitu at Linz, Austria.
On the contrary, Pavlyuchenkova has won 9 of her previous 10 matches which includes the Linz title. Form therefore definitely favouring Pavlyu at the moment.

Game Comparison:

Both are aggressive players by nature. In relation to serve, Safarova generally has trouble with consistency while Pavlyu seem to have stepped up in that department since the US Open.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

The main reason in suggesting to lay the favourite today is the difference in form of both these players. While Safarova had the better start to the year, Pavlyu seems to want a better ending to 2015.

My prediction is Pavlyu winning this one in 2 sets even though a deciding set is quite a possibility.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

In her previous match, Safarova didn’t just lose to Mitu but actually got blown away. In fact, she started extremely poorly, getting broken to love in her very first service game. I am counting on a similar scenario here as Pavlyuchenkova has not only served well recently, but returned with brute force. If that pattern continues, the Russian can very well run away with this match.
Another factor favouring Pavlyu is that this match is played in her home country. She must know the pace of these courts better than her opponent, which could easily turn out as an advantage.

I advice laying Safa with 2% of your bank and backing her at a quite high price of 2.8. Our target could be hit early in the first set so I do NOT recommend delaying the trades to fetch better lay prices on Safarova.

Our potential profit for this trade is pretty close to 50% of your stake.

Worst case scenario:

Personally, I don’t agree with the pricing of this market. However if the bookies know better and that Safarova starts strong, I suggest backing Pavlyu at an advanced price of 3.5 with your remaining 1% stake. If the Russian fights back from a poor first set to force a decider, I suggest trading out the market before the 3rd set begins.

Remember, any profits of 20-25% is always good to green out!

ANALYSIS

I had predicted a quick start for Pavlyuchenkova here and she broke Safarova in the very first game. The Russian went on to win the first set 6-1 making the Pinnacle tip successful easily.
This was quite an impressive win as our target was 50% of the stake and the tick difference was pretty high!

You can also see from the tip that I had boldly predicted a 2 set win for the Russian. In fact she was 5-2 up in the 2nd set and choked it. Eventually though, she did end up dominating the 3rd set and totally deserved to win this affair.

A look at Safarova’s market movements below:

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Patrick.