PINNACLE TIP #16
MATCH: A.RADWANSKA (POLAND) VS MADISON KEYS (USA)
EVENT: WTA CHINA
START TIME: 09:00 UK TIME
TIP: BACK RADWANSKA @1.68, LAY @1.27
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
Head to head stats favour Aga Radwanska here with a 4-1 lead. Interestingly, two of these encounters happened this year at major events – Wimbledon and US Open.
While Radwa fended off the American’s fightback to win in 3 sets at SW19, Keys returned the favour on her home soil at the more recent US Open.The scoreline in that match was pretty shocking to Radwanska fans as she lost 6-3 6-2.
Difference in strategy:
Keys is an all guns blazing player with massive serves and thundering forehands. On the contrary, Radwanska is heavily reliant on her defensive skills and is willing to chase down any ball on the court, making her one of the toughest players to deal with on the entire WTA circut.
From what I’ve seen so far, the most important factor in predicting the winner is actually going to be the pace of these courts in China.
It tends to work for defensive minded players more, which means, the longer this match goes on, Aga Radwanska should have the upper hand.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
A quick start for Keys cannot be ruled out, but to beat Aga in 2 sets could prove to be really tough for the young American.
In all honesty, considering her present form, Radwanska looks the better bet. Therefore, I won’t be surprised if she wins in comfortable fashion today!
The first set could indeed be tricky today. Still, I am going to trust Radwanska’s defense being more reliable.
I suggest investing 2% of your bank on the Pole at the starting Back Odds and laying at a price of 1.27.
While STOP LOSSES are not recommended, delaying the trade for better prices can be considered for this match as Keys is likely to serve better at the beginning and show more inconsistency as time goes by. If you are delaying, I suggest sticking to a back price range between 1.8 and 1.9 for Radwanska.
Assuming you are sticking with the original back price of 1.68, your profits will be around 32% of the stake.
Worst case scenario:
As I mentioned, a good start for Keys is a possible scenario here. If she starts serving bullets from the word GO and ends up breaking Radwanska, I suggest backing the Pole with an advance Back price of 2.75 with your remaining 1% stake.
Even if she is down a break, I can see a possible fightback and a 2 set win for Radwa.On the other hand, a 2 set win for Madison looks much less probable.
Remember, any profits of 20-25% is always good to green out!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
I don’t think I could have been more right for this tip! Even if I do say so myself!!!
I expected a slight jump in odds at the start and that’s precisely what happened when Radwa’s price hit close to 1.9. From then on it was pretty much one way traffic and the market never went against Aga.
Our target of Lay@1.27 was hit in the 5th game of this match.
The following analysis was sent in by a member, Mette! Thanks very much Mette!!