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Pinnacle Trading Tip: Shvedova V Gibbs & Analysis

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MATCH: SHVEDOVA (KAZAKHSTAN) V GIBBS (USA)

EVENT:         WTA INDIAN WELLS

START TIME: 19:30 UK TIME

TIP: BACK GIBBS @1.81, LAY @1.37

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

PLEASE NOTE :
FOR ALL PINNACLE TIPS, OUR STAKES ARE ALWAYS LIABILITIES WHETHER WE ARE BACKING OR LAYING AT THE START!

FORM AND GAME COMPARISON:

Form of Shvedova is quite decent winning 7 of her last 10 matches. Her losses came against Madison Keys at the Australian Open and then to Errani, who won the title at Dubai and a very tricky Hibino at Qatar. Gibbs meanwhile, has won 9 of 10 matches with her only loss to an in-form Kontaveit at Monterrey, Mexico.

Shvedova’s game has historically been about solid serving and brutal power in rallies. Gibbs wasn’t known as an aggressive player a year or so ago but her current form is quite breathtaking as she looked quite deadly in both her wins against Dulgheru and a very tough Madison Keys.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

It is worth noting that Gibbs lost just 1 game against a tricky Dulgheru in her first match and totally neutralized Madison Keys’ serves in the 2nd round. Another 2 set win for the American is quite a possibility.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Not only is Gibbs’ form better than her Kazakh opponent, she also has a crucial advantage of being 5 years younger.
Also, as well as Shvedova can attack, 6 of her last 10 matches have gone to deciding sets, which implies she has trouble finishing off matches after getting a good start.

Overall, there is therefore enough reasons to back Nicole Gibbs at the beginning today.

Suggesting to stake 2% of your bank by BACKing the favourite at the start and LAYing at odds of 1.37.

‘DELAY AND TRADE’ is not recommended to fetch better BACK prices on Gibbs.

Your potential profit is approximately 32% of the stake.

Worst case scenario:

Assuming Shvedova starts better and goes on to win the first set, I suggest backing the American at odds of 3.75 with your remaining 1% stake. As mentioned before, with too many 3 setters for Shvedova in recent weeks, there is reason to believe in a Gibbs comeback.

If indeed Gibbs fights back to force a deciding set, I suggest trading out the market in its entirety before the 3rd set begins.

As always any profits of 20-25% is good to trade out!

 

ANALYSIS:

At no point were we ever in trouble for this trade as Nicole Gibbs hammered Shvedova with a 6-0 start. Our target was successfully hit towards the end of the 3rd game.

She continued to dominate in the 2nd set and eventually won the match 6-0 6-4.

Gibbs’ price movement shown below:

gibbs-price movement -pinnacle 48

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