MATCH: PUIG (PUERTO RICO) V BENCIC (SWITZERLAND)
EVENT: WTA SYDNEY
START TIME: 09:00 UK TIME
TIP: LAY BENCIC @1.52, BACK @2.2
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : CAN BE CONSIDERED
FORM & ANALYSIS:
This is the 2nd tournament of 2016 for both these players. While Puig being beaten by an in-form Paszek was predictable in the earlier tournament at Auckland, Bencic’s loss to American Samantha Crawford in 2 sets at Brisbane was quite a big shock.
Puig came into this tourney as a qualifier and has played 6 matches already. While she had a couple of tests against Hercog and Rybarikova, her most recent matches against Schmiedlova and Stosur were straight set wins. Against Schmiedlova notably, the Puerto Rican won by a 6-1 6-0 margin which is hard to ignore, considering how talented the Slovakian is.
Bencic meanwhile had challenges of her own through Makarova and Lucic Baroni losing a couple of sets.
Overall, Bencic is probably the better server but both players are highly attack oriented.
If this match took place a few months back, I would have stuck with Bencic. However, something seems to have changed in the underdog’s game plan this week. Simply put, the Puerto Rican has found an extra gear in her game that has made her look invincible at times. That fact alone makes this a much tougher match to predict than bookies see it.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
No doubt Bencic has improved hugely in the last year or so, but she is facing a very confident looking Monica Puig here in Brisbane. If the Swiss is going to win this, I feel it is going to take her 3 sets. On the contrary, if Puig can repeat some of her form against Schmiedlova/Stosur, I think we may see an upset here.
If I were to predict an outcome, I would go for Puig to win in 3 sets.
Assuming Monica Puig can repeat the sort of rhythm from her previous two matches, there is enough logic behind laying the favourite here.
Invest 2% of your bank by laying Bencic at the start and backing her at odds of 2.2.
Delaying the trade can be considered to fetch better lay price on Bencic. My suggested Lay Price range for delaying is between 1.35 and 1.4.
Your potential profit is around 60% of the stake (without delaying).
Worst case scenario:
Bookies have priced Bencic as quite a decent favourite. Considering the Swiss girl has some good serves, a first set lead cannot be totally ignored.
If Bencic starts quicker by winning the first set easily, I suggest backing Puig at odds of 6 with your remaining 1%.
Let the trade run till we go to a third set. Overall, I feel the second set could have a ton of drama and Puig may end up being good enough to snatch it and force a decider.
If this happens, you should probably trade out the market entirely with your achieved profits before the 3rd set begins.
Overall, my gut instinct says Bencic will have a formidable challenge through Monica Puig today so hoping that our worst case scenario doesn’t come into force straight away!
As always, any profits between 20 – 25% is always good to trade out!
This turned out to be a great tip as Bencic simply folded to Puig and got hammered in the 1st set after which she retired.
Our trade obviously stands as the 1st set was completed.
That’s 2 out of 2 successful LAY TIPS for 2016 already!