PINNACLE TRADING TIP #3
DAY 3 – US OPEN, 2nd SEPTEMBER 2015
MATCH: GABASHVILI VS SEPPI
EVENT: US OPEN MENS
START TIME: 21:00 UK TIME
TIP: BACK SEPPI @1.55, LAY @1.25
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED IN THE FIRST SET)
DELAY AND TRADE : OPTIONAL
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
The Italian Seppi leads Russian Gabashvili 3-1 in head to head stats with the most recent win coming on a hard court in 2013.
Current form of Gabash isn’t too bad as he did shock Andy Murray at Washington. This could mean that the match may turn out to be pretty good in terms of quality.
However, in my opinion, Seppi has vastly improved in the last year on pretty much every surface and has been a lot more aggressive than in previous years. On the contrary, while Gabashvili is definitely talented, he has issues controlling nerves and tends to crack easily when things are not going well.
For this reason, I am siding with the favourite today!
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
The pricing of the market indicates this isn’t too easy to predict. Still, from a trading point of view, I can see the market inclining towards Seppi at some stage. In fact, even if he loses the first set, I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins the next 3 rather comfortably.
My prediction would be Seppi to win in 3 or 4 sets.
Unlike our previous two tips, I am suggesting to be more creative today by delaying and trading to get some higher prices on Seppi. Obviously this isn’t mandatory but getting a higher price on our player is quite possible. Remember, you don’t want to lose a lot of value by delaying too long.
For our primary scenario, I want you to assume that Seppi will remain the favourite after the end of the 2ND set (no matter what drama happens during that time). This means, even if he loses the first set, I expect a fightback from the Italian.
Therefore, even if you are delaying, make sure the money is on Seppi’s side until the second set is over! If this isn’t the case our worst case scenario should be considered.
If I turn out to be right, then investing 2% of your bank on Seppi in the range of 1.55 – 1.8 and laying @1.25 or close to 1.3, will fetch you a profit of at least 24%. That’s 0.24 units for every unit invested which should make this a meaningful market to trade on.
Worst case scenario:
Our worst case as mentioned earlier, is Gabashvili starting quicker and continuing to play well to win the 3rd set as well. In this case, I suggest investing the remaining1% at odds in the range of 6.00 – 8.00. Anything lower doesn’t seem good enough!
Assuming we fetched the price of 6 and that Seppi goes on to win the 2nd set, you are likely to have a profit. If it looks meaningful enough, I suggest trading out entirely or at least some part of it. Bottomline is, we don’t want to lose the majority of our initial stake of 2%.
If things continue to look good by Seppi winning the 4th set, you don’t have to think, just trade out!
I do not recommend trading the 5th set unless you spot a serious injury on Gabashvili.The 1st round match between Pospisil and Haider-Maurer was the best example of such a situation.
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
‘My prediction would be Seppi to win in 3 or 4 sets.” This pretty much sums up yesterday’s tip as Seppi started poorly and stormed back to win the next set and was a break up in the 3rd. At this stage our target was hit. See screenshot below.
After that, some drama followed but Seppi eventually won the 3rd and ran away with the 4th.
Pretty pleased that the market went pretty much exactly as I had predicted.
Stats for the service so far:
30 Tips given, 27 successful, 90% strike rate.