PINNACLE TIP # 4 + ANALYSIS
DAY 4 – US OPEN
MATCH: TSURENKO (UKRAINE) V LEPCHENKO (USA)
EVENT: US OPEN WOMEN
START TIME: 16:00 UK TIME
TIP: LAY TSURENKO @1.59, BACK @2.1
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 2% TOTAL (1% TO BE USED IN THE FIRST SET)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
There wasn’t anything much in Tsurenko’s game until very recently when she started playing much more aggressively. While she had a rather ordinary clay and grass court season, her hard court performances have been pretty exemplary after putting on a good show at Indian Wells early in the year combined with another good display at Istanbul recently where she eventually won the title. She continued this form at both Toronto and New Haven beating some fine players on the way such as Muguruza, Strycova and Karolina Pliskova.
Lepchenko meanwhile, was generally known as a poor serving defensive player. However, she too has changed her game style to more of an aggressive style and did rather well during the early part of the season beating players like Stosur and Keys in the Brisbane Open.
From then on, her form declined considerably.
Still, her recent games have been pretty good and she seems to enjoy playing on home soil more as she beat both Wozniacki and Barthel at Stanford and also showed up as a tough challenger against Schmiedlova in Cincinnati.
On paper, Tsurenko is the favourite, but I do believe Lepchenko is good enough to cause an upset today!
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
I cannot say for sure that Tsurenko won’t win this in 2 sets. What I can say more confidently is that Lepchenko will be good enough to make her odds jump, enough to hit our target.
My prediction would be a 2-1 set win for either player!
So far we have backed all our Pinnacle Tips. This is going to be the first lay tip of this service.
My primary scenario here is Lepchenko starting pretty well. This means she is good enough (hopefully) to break Tsurenko early on and get a 3-1 or 4-2 lead in the first set. That would mean our target should be hit early on. At this stage you can trade out this market entirely.
I am not suggesting any stop loss here and not recommending delaying the trades either. Simply putting, get on the wagon straight on and lay Tsurenko for 1%. Remember, our lay stake is also our liability. So 1% is your total risk at the start.
Our profit will be around 41% of the stake or 0.41 units for every 1 unit of investment. That’s pretty decent!
Worst case scenario:
The worst case for us is Tsurenko starting like she did against Safarova, who got thrashed in 2 sets. However, one important thing to note is that Safa had played a ton of games prior to the US Open which could easily be the reason of her failing so miserably. Lepchenko on the other hand is much more rested, therefore I am hopeful this won’t be a one-way traffic!
If I happen to be wrong and that Tsurenko fires on all cylinders from the word GO, then invest the remaining 1% on Lepchenko at a back price of at least 5.5. A fightback from the American to take it to a deciding set will make this a profitable trade.
If you have achieved close to 20% profit after the end of the 2nd set, I do not recommend trading the final set as it could be heads or tails.
Not worth gambling at this stage!
Keep a close eye on Lepchenko’s service stats throughout this match. It could turn out to be the perfect guide for you in trading in this match!
Good luck for our first ‘Lay’ Tip!
POST TIP ANALYSIS
Yesterdays tip maintains our 100% record. Lepchenko started very badly. She was a double break down in the first set. However, our worst case scenario odds of 5.5 were hit.
If you took these odds you should have profited very nicely. Lepchenko stormed back to win the first set and went on to win the match, making our primary tip a success also.
Overall, a perfect tip for the Pinnacle Service.
I’d love to hear some feedback if anyone has time. The image below shows the market in the first set.