PINNACLE TIP #9
MATCH: ROGER FEDERER (SWITZERLAND) VS NOVAK DJOKOVIC (SERBIA)
EVENT: US OPEN MENS FINAL
START TIME: 21:00 UK TIME
TIP: LAY DJOKOVIC @1.85, BACK @3
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 4% TOTAL (3% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : OPTIONAL
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
Two of the greats of all time facing today in a mouthwatering Finale!
Let’s have an in-depth look at each player.
The most consistent ATP player in the past few years, this could be Novak’s 10th grandslam to tie Bill Tilden of USA. The world number 1 has won one US Open title and 5 Australian Opens making hard courts his favourite surface.
Overall, the Serbian has had an amazing season with wins at Australian Open, Runner up at French and winning in Wimbledon.
I’ll summarize Roger’s stats in a nutshell as there are not enough words to describe the man. Should he win here, Roger will surpass his own record to reach 18 Grand Slams. Next in line is Sampras and arch rival Nadal, both tied at 14.
Apart from his shock upset to the Italian Andreas Seppi at the Australian, Roger has had a pretty decent year winning in Dubai, reaching the finals at Indian Wells (losing to Djokovic), losing to the eventual winner Stan Wawrinka at the French, and being consistent in the grass court season by winning at Halle and reaching the Finals at Wimbledon.
That’s all pretty sweet. But the tournament that caught my eye in particular was the most recent one he played prior to the US Open, in Cincinnati. Not only did he win the tournament, he beat both Murray and Djokovic in 2 sets to achieve it. For me the performance there was simply breathtaking.
Since then he has carried his good form into the US Open and remains the only player not to lose a single set. His last victim was Stan Wawrinka who lost eventually by a handicap of 10 games which is pretty unbelievable considering Stan’s good form!
If anyone can do it today, it has to be the man they call ‘Fed Express’!
Head to Head Stats:
Amazingly these two have played each other 41 times with Roger leading 21-20!
For 2015, while Federer won the first encounter in Dubai, Djokovic went on to win the next 3. Fed then reduced the deficit to 3-2 at Cincinnati.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
It may indeed be quite hard to predict the final outcome of this match as these two are not just any other players. They are two of THE BEST EVER!
From a trading point of view though, I feel if Roger is to have a chance of winning this match or at least making it close, the first set is going to be crucial. Therefore, my best prediction is Federer starting well and Djokovic fighting back.
A pretty decent chance we could see a deciding set today!
As mentioned before, I’m expecting Federer to start well. My first suggestion is therefore to Lay Djokovic. While Stop Losses are not suggested for this tip, delaying the trade can be considered to fetch better lay prices. Ideally you want to go for a Lay price range of 1.7-1.8 if you are choosing to delay. Anything more is pushing it!
Assuming you are trading straight away, I suggest investing 3% of your bank at the starting lay price of 1.85 and backing at a price of 3.
Your potential profit would be close to 45%. Trade out entirely once successful!
The reason why I am giving such a high tick difference is because this is a 5 setter and these are two quality players. Assuming I’m right on Federer starting well and if indeed he wins the first set by a scoreline of 6-2 or 6-3 (not impossible), the odds are likely to go pretty big in Roger’s favour.
Of course, I believe it won’t be that straightforward, but I hope our target to hit sometime early in the 2nd set if indeed Roger starts great.
If Roger wins the first set and goes on to lose the second set, it’s fair to say the markets will likely go to the original position. If this is the case, I would suggest sticking with the tip and NOT trading out even if he is a break down early in the 3rd.
Basically, wait out the entire 3rd set. If there are any injuries to Roger at this stage, you have the option to trade out the market. On the contrary, let the trade roll on.
Worst case scenario:
Our worst case scenario is Roger starting poorly and going on to lose both the 1st and 2nd sets. At this stage if Roger doesn’t look injured, I suggest investing our remaining 1% on him at odds of 8 or above.
For all other bad scenarios, i.e if Roger starts well and then goes on to play poorly, give advance back prices for Roger at 5.00 with your 1% stake.
You do have the option to trade out with a loss if, and only if, Roger looks physically weak and Novak is returning his serves easily.
There are definitely other bad scenarios for us but the above two are our main worries. Let’s just hope we don’t have too much bad luck!
This is my 9th tip since Pinnacle has launched and it’s on one of the biggest matches of the year. Let’s hope we can continue the good streak, and hopefully it turns out to be a match to remember for us.
Good luck for this year’s US Open Final!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
Unfortunately, we couldn’t keep our good streak going for the US Open final in what proved to be a rather ordinary match for Federer.
He just didn’t serve well enough early on.
After losing the 1st set he looked to be back on track winning the 2nd and came down from an early break in the 3rd set to have further break points. At this point things were looking very positive for us. However, once he missed them, it all turned in favour of Djokovic.
While we lost this tip, I must insist that it was a pretty decent tip considering his performance in this tournament. Have a look at the official stats of the match:
As we can see Federer leads in Serve stats and edges ahead in receiving points won. The weakness for him was the number of missed break points; 4/23 to be precise or just 17 % compared to Novak’s 6/13 or 46%. Add to that, he had 54 unforced errors, this was always going to be a tricky match to win.
I didn’t think there were many physical issues for Roger. I thought he was just too defensive at the start and didn’t trust his forehand much but preferred backhand slices more.
Overall, Djokovic was the better player on the day and credit to him for yet again proving why he is the World’s best.
Here is a screenshot of his market movements on Betfair.
That ends our good run on the final day. Disappointing obviously, but we did pretty well till then!