Pinnacle Trading Tip Williams Vs Vinci + Post Match Analysis


TIP:     BACK VENUS @1.65, LAY @1.24




Roberta Vinci:
Vinci started the season rather poorly with an early loss at the Australian Open. Her form continued to be dodgy in later hard court events.
Had some sort of a groove in the Clay court season, mainly in WTA Nurnberg but that went out of the window when she lost in the first round at the French to Cornet. On grass she faired the worst with three consecutive first round losses at Birmingham, Eastbourne and Wimbledon.
Only in the later part of the season did she really start showing consistency with a good performance at Toronto losing only to Serena Williams. Another impressive performance at New Haven which was followed by her career best show at the US Open knocking out the World No.1 that caused the biggest upset of the year in probably all of sports.
Continues her good run and deserved to beat both Kvitova and Pliskova to reach the Semis.
Venus Williams:
To be fair, Venus has had one of her best seasons starting the year with a title at Auckland where she beat Wozniacki. She played rather well at the Aussie Open beating the likes of Radwanska and Giorgi.
An uneventful clay court season which was followed by a decent performance at Wimbledon only to lose to her younger sister Serena. Another loss to Serena at the US Open was disappointing but it’s fair to say that she did put a great fight in that match. She continues her decent form in Wuhan where she has played absolutely brilliant beating an in-form Radwanska and getting past a dangerous player like Konta in her last match.
Game comparison:
While Venus has had issues with her serves historically, she has done quite well in the past couple of tournaments that include the US Open.Her general game is all about power hitting and pure aggression which seem to have done the job for her in getting this far.
On the other hand, Vinci was always a defense oriented player but has changed her gameplan to an aggressive style in recent months. This has made her much more tricky to deal with.
If Venus is to win today she must capitalize on the returns and engage in shorter rallies. The longer the rallies, Vinci might have the upper hand.
Overall, I do believe Venus is the right favourite considering the fact that she has served very well in Wuhan.
My general prediction for this match is Venus starting well and possibly winning in 2 sets. While Vinci definitely can prolong the match to a deciding set, Venus would likely want to avenge her sister’s defeat to the Italian and start with all guns blazing.
Overall, I feel an American victory is much more likely.


Primary scenario:

The toughest opponent either player had knocked out in my opinion was Aga Radwanska who was almost unplayable in Tokyo and won that tournament without losing a set! Venus handled her extremely well winning the first set by a 6-1 scoreline. This result makes me believe that she can beat Vinci today without too much fuss. I therefore suggest investing a decent sized stake of 4% at the start on Venus  and laying at a price of 1.24.
Our potential profit is around 33% of stake.
Worst case scenario:
A 2 set win for Vinci cannot be fully ignored as she does have some form behind her. If indeed the Italians starts well enough and continues to keep up the momentum, I suggest backing Venus at a price of at least 3.5 with your remaining 1%.
If Venus wins the 2nd set I suggest trading out the entire market as the 3rd set could have more drama like her previous match.
In general, I don’t see a straightforward win for Vinci today as Venus has been pretty consistent so far, especially in returning serves. That stat alone may end up as the key difference between these two players today.
As always, any profits of 20-25% is always good to green out!
Tip #13 proved to be lucky for us as our target was hit very early on with Venus starting extremely well. However, after being 3-0 down Vinci performed a miraculous comeback to win the first set 7-5.

From then on it seemed one way traffic for Venus as she wins the 2nd set comfortably and had a decent lead in the third only to give Vinci further opportunities and was at the brink of defeat.

Somehow, just like yesterday, Venus wins eventually, this time on a deciding tie-break. A great match to watch. 



Add Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *