My main expertise is trading, but sometimes I like to look at the outrights to see if there’s any value.
Before I start trading tennis tournaments, one of the first things that I look at is the ‘Draw’.
Always have the DRAW printed out before a tournament as it gives us an idea of who our player’s future opponents might be. Also it is an excellent way to spot ‘dark horses‘ whose outright odds maybe very high early on.
There is a perfect example of the above that I have put on the website before and that is the Outright of Zeballos in the VTR Clay court tournament (Rafa’s first tournament after injury this year!) Feel free to have a look at it from the following link:
In fact, the only player I had put money in the outright here was Zeballos. The reason being, I really believed he had the game to reach at least the semis and it would also mean he would only meet Nadal in the Final as he was on the other side of the draw.
The following is a few points that I advise in relation to spotting outrights.
1. Firstly consider the surface.
2. Next, circle out all the players in the DRAW who are considered to be good on this surface. For example, if its clay, with all the players playing in French Open, circle out Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Ferrer, Del Potro etc..
3. Thirdly, check the recent form of every single player you have circled out. This includes matches they have lost as well. For example, how did they lose, was it on a tie-break, was it a close match etc.
4. Injury! Put a question mark on every player that you’ve circled who have had some sort of injury in the past few months. You might have to do a bit of research for this but let me tell you, it may prove vital!
5. Look at the players who you have not circled, but have played very well recently. But this time, instead of Circling them, Square them. For example, one of the best new upcoming players is Dmitrov (on any surface), so he’s a dark horse for any knowledgeable trader out there.
6. So far you’ve done the spotting of players, now look into the draw and check who they are likely to meet if they win their round matches. Along with that, check the head to head between them and more importantly, HEAD TO HEAD by SURFACE stats!
7. Once you’ve done all of the above, there is one last factor to look at and that is Endurance Levels. Look into your key players to see how long they have lasted. For example, in three set matches, what is their record like? How long have they played the whole match. Is there any video of a recent match you can double check to see how consistent they were, as the match dragged on etc…
The above 7 points for me are all worth considering before major tournaments, especially Grand Slams. One of my biggest wins in an Outright market was on Sabine Lisicki in the 2009 Wimbledon where she reached the Quarter Finals and lost to Dinara Safina in a tough 3 setter. I greened out around 800 units on Lisicki then as her odds was simply too high to ignore.
Spotting players for Outrights is always a good thing. However, I never advise backing big on them due to injury issues. Indeed if your player gets injured, your Outright is gone. So there is always a risk but still it’s worth noting that the chance of a decent profit is really possible if you spot the right DARK HORSES!
Thank you for reading..