This article, I hope, gives the reader some valuable tips on dealing with reds in Betfair Tennis Trading..
For any newbie out there in tennis trading, the word ‘RED’ simply means as it stands, you are in loss. Conversely Green implies,you are profiting.
Let’s take a tennis match that happened earlier this year (24th May 2013) between Nieminen and Sijsling.
The odds were around 1.65 on Nieminen.
The tennis trading tip I gave was to back him first and lay him around 1.4 region.
Now here’s what happened in the first set:
Nieminen broke Sijsling first which meant his odds went down to less than 1.4. At this stage your profit for a 100 unit stake would be around 18 units.
Backed Nieminen@1.65 for 100 , Laid email@example.com.
Approximate profit of 18 units.
However at this stage instead of profiting out, you get the devil’s phone call saying to put more on Nieminen as surely he won’t lose, will he? You put 100 more on Nieminen @1.4.
As the match went on however, Sijsling breaks him, not once, but twice, to take a commanding lead. Now, from a 1.4 back price on Nieminen, he has gone up to 3. A disaster! This 100 alone has a loss of about 54 units (more than half your second stake). However the total loss would be in the region of 100 units as you would lose 45 from the original 1.65 back as you can see from below
Backed Nieminen@1.65 for 100, Laid 55 @3
Stake difference = 100-55 = 45 (loss)
At this stage, you have traded out only to find Nieminen has broken back and goes on to win the set, which infuriates you more and you are now steaming! What follows is gambling instincts, and a desire to chase every market to get back your lost 100 units and the next thing you know, you’ve just blown away your whole bank. This is a common scenario for amateur traders.
Ok, let’s recap what happened here, and point out the mistakes.
The biggest mistake here was to put more money on a favourite that has taken a lead. While it was OK to assume Nieminen would win the first set easily, it was a long way from being over as he has only a one break lead. Never let your boastful predictions eat away your money. If you’re confident on someone winning the set and if he gets broken back, trade out the match completely and WAIT!
Waiting for better opportunities is the whole point of calling yourself a trader, as that is what a great trader does. He spies his chances and takes them at the right time! If things go against him, he trades out and waits for a better chance. This way of thinking sets him apart from other traders. You might profit more than him in a few matches, but in the long run, he will always have an edge and have profited, whereas you may have gone bankrupt!
Of course, the second mistake was to react badly and to chase losses – you must recognise when you do this and recognise the triggers. Putting your full bank on the next game might work once or twice, but inevitably will lead to big losses. Try to be calm and stick to your plan.
The whole point of this article is about having a plan for ‘Dealing With Reds’. I believe in the long run I’ve beaten markets mainly due to the reason that I’ve had a plan B. It’s OK to trade out! Other than that, it’s all about having patience!
Hope you found this informative.
Thanks for reading!