In-depth trading: Djokovic v Murray
The following article includes some vital points in relation to trading the Murray v Djokovic match (Miami Open) last week.
Djokovic v Murray:
My Tip: Lay Djokovic @1.33, Back @1.7
Right after this tip was published on the site, and prior to the match starting, here’s a question that I’d got from one of my customers:
I wonder if you could explain why you believe Djoko’s odds will drift. Just trying to understand the rationale.
My answer was pretty much saying that even though Murray looked pretty ordinary in his last tournament, he has looked good so far and that he would want to prove why he is the defending champion on a court with conditions that suit his game. However, more importantly, I also gave him the following suggestion:
‘’You can opt to delay and trade here and go for an advanced lay price of 1.2 or 1.25. Something that may get matched early on.’
In the match, Djokovic had break points to start in this match. At this point, his odds fell from 1.35 to 1.2. It then seemed later that Andy was more comfortable in holding his serves. The market reacted accordingly here and a jump in Novak’s odds looked likely. Then in the 11th game with Djoker serving, Andy had a break point. This made his odds jump to around 1.57 (at least!).
So basically, his odds went down to 1.2 from 1.33 then to 1.56. Hence, in reality, the suggestion is what exactly happened in this match eventhough our trade was deemed unsuccessful. This is how:
The initial tip had a tick difference of 37 => 1.7 – 1.33 = 37 ticks
The tick difference between the price of 1.57 and suggested lay price of 1.2 = 37 ticks!
This is why watching the match and trading along is always advised rather than jumping into odds straight away. There have been many a match like this one where in the stats page I’ve deemed the matches as ‘unsuccessful’, but in truth, for a patient and calculated trader, such matches are indeed Successful!