Tennis Trading Stats Monday 4th Feb markets were extremely non-liquid for most matches yesterday as
they were qualifying so trading wise it wasn’t helpful.

Hence I am going to give the success rate of the strategies supposing
they were liquid.

It’s alright if you didn’t trade all these matches yesterday but
definitely there were a few worth trading.

So here’s the success rate overall…

WTA BNP Paribas:

1. Czink v Cohen : Successful

2. Falconi v Bratchikova  : Successful

3. Sevastova v Rodionova :  Successful

4. Torro Flor v Panova : Successful (Panova broke early in this match
meaning the odds on Torro Flor went above 2.3)

5. Vandeweghe v Burnett: Unsuccessful (Burnett too good!)

6. Dushevina v Koehler: Successful (Dushevina should have won this but
didn’t. Strategy worked overall)

7. Lucic v Pegula : Succesful

8. Voegele v Vickery : Successful

9. Tomljanovic v Glatch : Unsuccessful

10. Sirotkina v Dellacqua : Successful

Success rate : 8 / 10 or 80%

BH Matches won’t be considered (even though more were successful) as the
markets were not worth trading with heavy stakes due to no liquidity!

Good luck for today!


  • Peter Finneid Posted March 5, 2013 8:22 am

    How much liquidity should it be to consider to trade BH matches?

    • Patrick Ross Posted March 5, 2013 9:37 am

      Hi Peter

      Since your question concerns Heavy Stakes, it is very important to
      have liquid markets.

      On an average anything from 400 K upwards have almost a 99% chance of
      getting your trades matched. Anything more in the range of 1 million
      or more, you do not have to worry about liquidity!

      On smaller tennis matches, there is a good chance the liquidity may
      not even reach 200 K but it still maybe worth trading. But under 200 K
      it really isn’t worth risking too much!

      So as a starter, 200 K is the target you have to put , 400 k to 1
      million as definitely worth executing the trades and anything over 1
      million as NO WORRIES!

      Good luck!

  • Ian Hall Posted March 5, 2013 10:47 am

    Good Morning.
    I wanted to clarify your assessment of one of yesterday’s tips.

    I agree with your comment that the market had very poor liquidity which affected the odds available to trade.

    On the Voegele vs Vickery match that I did trade you suggested backing Voegele heavy at 1.3 and laying at 1.15. I backed at 1.22 as 1.3 was not available and traded out at a loss when Vickery broke early in the first set. She went on to win the first set 6-3. Whilst she did eventually win the match in the 3rd set this was long after I had traded out. Can you clarify why you say your tip was sucessful on this match? I was watching the score and did not see a profit at any stage in my trade.

    I am interested to understand why you believe this trade would have been successful on the assumption that the market was liquid.



    • Patrick Ross Posted March 5, 2013 1:12 pm

      Dear Ian

      Indeed the liquidity wasn’t too good on any WTA match yesterday
      eventhough some matches picked up as time went. The Voegele match was
      indeed successful as she broke to love in the very first game. I
      myself had a small stake on that. My 1.15 and 1.17 did get matched ( I
      gave it as soon as the match went ‘in play’ and hence the reason).
      However, the odds immediately went to 1.2 region and above after that.
      I however traded this out straight away as Voegele was 0-30 in the
      next game and also because I was concentrating more on another match
      at the time.

      It is very possible that there wasn’t much money early on, so its
      likely that is why your bet didn’t get matched. Did you give the odds
      straight after you backed @ 1.22?

      Also please note since you did not get the 1.3 odds and you went for
      1.22 (8 ticks below) you were in theory chasing 7 more ticks @ 1.15.
      That actually isn’t really worth it. If you are backing heavy on any
      match you would like to target at least 15 decimals. You could see in
      almost all my BH tips I have given a 15 tick difference at least!! 10
      for me is really not worth it and less than 10 is a simply NO NO as
      the stakes are indeed high! I do not generally recommend BH matches
      for small odds and I feel I should not have given it at all yesterday
      considering the matches were too poor in liqudity terms. Hence I opted
      out giving BH matches today until the markets become more stable from
      tomorrow on wards which is very likely!

      If indeed you missed the matching early on due to lack of money on the
      betfair side, you would have been more in the red zone in this match
      as Vickery was on fire after giving up that early break. Indeed I
      believe she served for the match at one point and blew it.
      Nevertheless, from a trading point of view this match had indeed
      enough opportunities for you to be in profit zone! What you should
      have done is restricted your loss early on through STOP LOSS (please
      refer the FAQ) and then monitored the match continuously and you would
      have definitely had opportunities not just in the second, but also in
      the 3rd.

      If however Vickery started without a break and she had broken Voegele
      first, this would have been unsuccessful as the initial odds would not
      have decreased ! However like I pointed out not only did Vickery got
      broken first game, she got broken to 0. That is very much the reason
      why my trades were matched. Also please do remember to give the trades
      in advance that you want to get matched. No point in giving the trade
      out while the match is going on as due to betfair delays they may not
      get matched!

      Hope I answered your question.

  • Peter Finneid Posted March 5, 2013 5:44 pm

    Thanks for your answer

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