Tennis Trading Strategies for ATP/WTA 14/2/2013

February 14, 2013 2 0

ATP Rotterdam:

1. Bachinger vs Nieminen:

I expect Nieminen to be the better player as he has the overall game.
However don’t back heavy here as Bachinger isn’t the worst. He beat
the injury ridden Seppi yesterday where I was wrong!

Still I expect this to go in Nieminen’s favour:

S: Safer option is to wait a few games to see how good the serve stats
of Bachinger are. If they are rather weak. Back Nieminen and lay at
1.2! Else, wait out the first set and Back Nieminen if he has lost the
first set. Either way your money should be on Nieminen’s side!

2. Baghdatis vs Gasquet:

The dream story of Gasquet was pretty much easy to guess yesterday.
Eventhough his odds are higher today, I still expect him to win!

S: BH @1.44, LL @1.2

3. Gulbis vs Del Potro:

Del Potro could be the best outsider tip to win this tournament. He
has all in his game to beat even Roger Federer who is the favourite to
win this title!
Hence keep that in mind as an outright tip!

Today however I expect Del Potro to win. This could be a possible 3
setter as Gulbis starts well normally with his huge serves.

S: Lay Del Potro at the start for 1.22, Back him around 1.4.

Do not trade heavy in this match as it may be risky!

ATP Brazil Open:

1. Berlocq vs Ramos:

Berlocq I have noticed doesn’t read left handers that well! I am hence
going to go in Ramos’s favour in this match,

S: Lay Berlocq @1.85, back at around 2.1

2. Bolelli vs Monaco: (I am copying this from yesterday’s tip as follows)

This actually could be a good match to trade. I still expect Monaco to
win it in the end maybe a 3 setter.

Strategy: Back Monaco (not heavy) at 1.55. Lay around 1.4!

3. Andujar vs Montanes:

I feel Montanes will win this but this could be a gruelling 3 setter!

It is a hard one to call personally. But I am putting faith in Montanes here.

S: Back Montanes @ 1.98, lay at 1.7

4. Capdeville vs Almagro

Almagro is a good outsider for this Nadal filled tournament. Only guy
left who can beat Nadal I feel in this one!

BH @ 1.16, Lay low @ 1.05

5. Pella vs Nalbandian:

I have always been a Nalba fan. Definitely one of the best never to
win a grandslam!

Pella is back ladies and gents and hence, this could be a great market
a very profitable market. I have a feeling Nalbandian will lose today
eventhough he is a great clay court player.
What we want here is Nalbandian to win the first set somehow. Lay him
at that stage assuming odds are around 1.2. Only do this if you see
Pela serve stats as Ok.

Safer strategy hence is to wait out the first set. You can lay
Nalbandian at the start if you wish but it maybe more risky!

Nevertheless at some point I feel Pela odds will decrease!

6.Belluci vs Volandri:

Another player who may have some sort of chance to win this title is
home favourite Belucci!
I don’t think he will win or can beat Nadal but just keep him in mind
along with Almagro as possible winners!

Strategy: Back Heavy on Belucci @1.65. Lay at 1.4 or less!

WTA QATAR:

1. Radwanska vs Ivanovic:

Radwanska looked great yesterday! I expect her to win this.

S: BH on Radwa @1.2, Lay low @1.1

2. Wozniacki vs Barthel:

This could be Wozniacki’s end to this tournament. Barthel has romped
to victory in all her recent matches and if her serve is spot on
Wozniacki pretty much will get blown away.

However having said that Wozniacki is one of the best fighters in
women’s tennis. So always a chance for a 3 setter!

S: Back Barthel heavy @1.82, Lay@ 1.5

3. Hantuchova vs Errani:

Errani odds are 1.55. I feel that maybe a good laying price at the start.

S: Lay Errani @1.55, Back @1.7

4. Stosur vs Kuznetsova:

Kuznetsova odds are 1.5!! That’s very low for betfair. It pretty much
says she will dominate this match which very well might happen.

S: BH on Kuz @1.5, Lay low @1.2

5. Azarenka vs Mc Hale:

Mc Hale is one of my favourite new comers to watch. A great overall
hardworking girl!

S: Lay Azarenka @1.06 at the start, Back her at 1.15 – 1.2 range! This
may not happen but its a calculated strategy! So don’t go heavy in
this trade!

6. Zakopalova vs Sharapova:

Odds are 1.06 on Sharapova. Apply exactly the same strategy as above.

I think laying Sharapova at the start is good. Zakopalova if her serve
holds can be a dangerous player. Still Maria might win in 2 so dont
back heavy!

7. Kvitova vs Petrova:

A possible 3 setter here. Hence lay the winner of the first set!

I feel Kvitova has more chance of winning personally.

S: Two strategies here.

Wait for the winner of the first set. Then lay her!
or
Back Kvitova early @1.72, lay around 1.5

8. Ursula Radwanska vs Serena:

S: Lay Serena @1.05 for a small amount. Back around 1.09!

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please take the strategies on Azarenka, Sharapova and
Serena as calculated risks rather than confident predictions. I am not
guaranteeing any of those will work, as they are all top players and I
have asked you guys to lay each of them. Hence DO NOT BACK/LAY HEAVY
in any of those matches against the favourites!

ATP SAP OPEN:

1. Becker vs Istomin:

1.5 back price on Istomin seems a bit low for me.

S: Lay Istomin at 1.5, back @1.65 – 1.7 range!

2. Matosevic vs Falla:

1.77 on Matosevic could be again wrong. I feel Falla is an excellent
hard court player. This could be a 3 setter.

Lay Matosevic @1.77, back @1.9

3. Malisse vs Ebden:

A possible 3 setter. Ebden is a decent youngster.

Hence strategy is to lay Malisse at the start @1.6. Back around 1.8!

4. Querrey vs Hewitt (Copied from yesterday’s tip as follows):

Querrey vs Hewitt:

I feel a possible 3 setter here. I am still going for Querrey though!

Strategy: Back (not heavy) @1.6 on Querrey, lay at 1.45

WTA Bionaire:

Pretty much none of these markets are priced properly at the moment.
Will try to get back on this if possible later. A few players I would
ask to back though would be Ormachea against Cabeza and Minella
against M.Duque. But do not back heavy at all! Clay court for womens
can be a rather hell to back heavy so trade with small units!

Good luck with these tips/strategies lads!

There was a comment yesterday by someone asking why am I quoting
certain matches as free money! It is a very good question but I think
the person did not understand me right. So let me explain:

Wherever I have mentioned free money, I expect that player odds to go
lower. That does not mean to back heavy!!! If I feel that highly
confident I would specify it. As the odds are getting lower you can
get some free money from the situation that arises, that’s all I mean
by the term FREE MONEY!

There is nothing free in relation to sports . Everything
else has risks. The person who made the comment specifically mentioned
the Seppi vs Bachinger match that went against my strategy.
This was absolutely true that I got the strategy wrong there, however
as you can see from the tips, I mentioned not to trade heavy in that
match! Also there was an injury concern on Seppi which was really the
reason he lost in 2 sets.

I have been giving 20 plus tips the last few days. If one market
doesn’t work you have another to make money of. Don’t be greedy hence
and do not put all your eggs in one basket. Remember the object is to
TRADE TENNIS and not gamble!! My strike rate so far has proven already
that the strategies if applied as I have asked, should get you some
CONSISTENT profits! Keep that word CONSISTENT in mind. 🙂

YESTERDAYS STATS:

A day that was ridden with retirements and injuries!

How about the strike rate? Let’s check it out!

Total matches given as tips : 24

Out of these 24, 5 were retirements (quite a lot for one day!!) and 2
will be played today (sorry I gave them early as the betfair markets
were already priced yesterday!)These 2 matches are Hewitt vs Querrey
and Monaco vs Bolelli.

So total matches taken into consideration for strike rate : 24 – 7: 17

Out of these 17, 14 matches trading wise were good! That is again an
impressive 82%

Also, I had given 10 Back Heavy – Lay low strategy matches yesterday.
All 10 have worked (injured or not injured)! The only match that was
close to being lost was Petrova where she lost the first and
completely dominated from then on!

So if you want to leave Petrova out of the equation it is still 9/10
or 90% on BH -LL tips. That is hugely impressive considering the fact
I pointed out especially Kuznetsova and Stosur to do well whose odds
were over 1.6!