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Tennis Trading Tips and Strategies for ATP/WTA – 18/2/2013

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WTA Dubai:

1. Bartoli vs Zakopalova:

Safe strategy: Wait out the first set, if Bartoli wins first,
definitely lay her!

Either way I feel odds of 1.68 on Bartoli will shoot up to around 1.9 sometime.

Hence, lay 1.69 and back around 1.9 on Bartoli. Do not trade heavy at
the start as the lay odds are rather high!

2. Cibulkova vs Petrova:

Definitely go for Petrova here at the start. Prices are not proper on betfair.

Strategy: Back heavy on Petrova assuming the odds are around 1.8! Lay low @1.4

3. Stephens vs Cirstea:

S: BH on Stephens @1.38. Lay low @1.2

4. Hsieh vs Lepchenko:

A very decent player in Hsieh, hence not an easy match to predict. A
possible 3 setter here or an easy win for Lepchenko

S: Back (not heavy) @1.67 on Lepchenko. Lay @1.45

5. Ivanovic vs Pavlyuchenkova:

Odds seem too low for me on Ivanovic @1.43.

S: Definitely lay Ivanovic@1.44, back @2.5 or even more.

This could be an easy win for Pavlyu! Still don’t trade heavy straight
away. Safer option is to lay Ivanovic if she wins the first set.

6. Wozniacki vs Safarova:

1.3 on Wozniacki is extremely low. I wonder if there is an injury
concern on Safarova.

Safe strategy: Wait out the first set, lay Wozniacki for a small
amount in the 1.1 – 1.15 range. This odds could be lower after the
first. Nevertheless, if there is no injury to Safarova, you should lay
Wozniacki as Safa is a great hardcourt player!

7. Radwanska vs Nara:

S: Back Extra heavy on Ursula Radwanska @1.29.
Lay @ 1.15

ATP Copa Claro

1. Belucci vs Schwartzman:

S: Back heavy on Belucci at the start. Lay @1.3 range!

2. Ramos vs Cipolla:

S: BH on Ramos@1.32, lay @1.2

WTA Memphis:

1. Annika Beck vs Erakovic:

Tough one to call here. I feel Beck may steal this in a possible 3 setter.

Safe strategy: Lay the winner of the first set or back Beck (not heavy) @1.73

2 . Cepelova vs Arvidsson:

One of my favourite Swedish ladies, Arvidsson should win this.
Cepelova had a tough match to get through to the next round and might
be more tired.

S: Back Arvidsson @1.65 (not heavy), lay@1.4.

If Cepelova wins the first set, wait for few games in the second
before trading out. I feel rather confident that this match will go in
Arvidsson’s favour at some point!

ATP Open 13

1. Roger Vasselin vs Teixeira:

Could be free money on Vasselin here.

S: Back heavy (upto 150 units) on Vasselin @1.3, lay@1.2 to green out!

2. Tursunov vs Hernych

Hernych is no easy player to beat. Tursunov on the other hand has the
habit of easily giving up when he is losing points!

This match maybe great to trade and likely to be a 3 setter!

S: Lay the winner of the first set!

3. Stakhovsky vs Mertl

S:  Back heavy on Stakhovsky @1.25, lay @1.14

4. Rosol vs Jancowicz:

Tough one to call here. I personally would go for Rosol hence would
lay Jancowicz @1.5

S: Lay 1.5 on Jancowicz, back @1.8!
If Jancowicz wins the first set easy, don’t think, trade out immediately!

5. Tomic vs Klizan:

Tomic lost to Dmitrov in a tough match last time. Klizan however also
played losing to Simon after retiring!

This maybe really tough to call as well!

I would go for Tomic as he has no injury issues.

S: Back Tomic@1.4, lay @1.25

DO NOT trade heavy in this match!

ATP Memphis:

1. Harrison vs Kubot:

S: Definitely lay Harrison at the start @1.5. Back @2. Kubot is no
easy player to beat on any surface!

2. Cilic vs Dodig:

S: Back @1.29 on Cilic, lay @1.1.

This could be a possible 3 setter but by form Cilic looks far better!

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Good luck lads!

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2 Comments

  • Jesper Harpoth Posted February 18, 2013 7:26 pm

    Hi
    In general: how do you know when to Trade out with a loss – and when to wait?

    • Patrick Ross Posted February 19, 2013 7:38 am

      Hi Jesper

      Thanks for your question.

      Basically, you are asking me how do I know how to trade in Tennis!!

      Jesper, I have been successful in tennis mainly because I have been
      following the sport for quite a few years. In order to understand the
      market you really should know the players! Their historical stats,
      their game, service stats overall in general, their backhand and
      forehand strengths. Pretty much, its the players that make the market
      go in your way most of the time except for injuries.

      As a good example I would point out yesterday’s match between Sloane
      Stephens and Sorana Cirstea in Dubai. My tip was to back Stephens
      heavy (100 units at least) for odds of 1.38 at the start and lay @
      1.2. I predicted this as Stephens starts well normally. This indeed
      was the case as she won the first set and actually was 3-1 in the
      second. Since then she completely lost her way and lost the match
      rather easily in the third!

      Why would I really ask someone to back heavy at a small odds here
      because I know the player. Same goes for Serena vs Sharapova match
      that I gave as a tip a few days back to back EXTRA HEAVY @1.41. I
      believed the bookies and betfair got this priced wrong and it should
      have been lower hence some easy money to green out.

      Basically I am saying, in order to trade tennis, you really need to
      know the player. Sometimes of course, even if you do, the markets
      fluctuate violently. The main weapon here is using your intuition to
      understand the situation in an unbiased way and not having any
      gambling attitude. A good trader will always trade out with a loss
      before the market drowns you. So most of the time, the idea is to
      understand which way the momentum is going and I don’t listen to
      commentators blabbering most of the time. I simply watch the match and
      make my own analysis as to how the match goes.

      The intuition factor hence is the key to a great trader. It will take
      time. In fact it will take you many losses before you understand your
      mistakes! I started as a losing trader without understanding how the
      market worked. But the more I experimented, the more successful I
      became and now I am a rather successful trader whose strike rate is
      pretty decent!

      That’s why the tips have been such a success!! Follow my tips and advice
      and you will learn very quickly. I explain the reasons for a lot of my tips.

      Hope I answered your question!!

      Good luck mate!

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