Tennis Trading Tips Monday 25th March 2013

tennis
Monday’s Tips
WTA:

1. Flipkens v Tomljanovic:

S: Lay Flipkens @ 1.35, [email protected] 1.5

2. Li v Muguruza:

S: Lay [email protected] 1.22, back @ 1.35

ATP

3. Raonic v Querrey:

S: Back Raonic @ 1.58, lay @ 1.35

4. Isner v Cilic:

S: Back Cilic @ 1.57, lay @ 1.4

BACK HEAVY:

5. Radwanska v Stephens:

BH on Radwa @ 1.32, lay @ 1.2

6. Cirstea v Jankovic:

BH on Jankovic @ 1.92, lay @ 1.7

7. Seppi v Bellucci:

BH on Seppi @ 1.53, lay @ 1.3

BACK EXTRA HEAVY:

Been a while since I gave an EXTRA HEAVY match so here it is:

8. Vinci v Cornet:

Back Vinci @ 1.32, lay @ 1.15

My hot tips: Vinci, Seppi, Jankovic, Radwanska and CIlic

I have given an EXTRA HEAVY match after sometime, good luck with it!

Cheers..

4 Comments

  • Michal Posted March 26, 2013 12:24 am

    I was trading BH and extra heavy and it was a bummer. Looking at Seppi stats I had to bail out during first set he was nowhere near taking a lead and was lucky not be broken more than once. Extra heavy match Vinci was crushed in first set right after 0.3K was matched at 1.16 and 1.3K at 1.17. But I know there are some inconsistencies to be expected and I believe you have solid edge in long run Patrick.

    All the best!

    • Patrick Ross Posted March 26, 2013 2:36 pm

      Hi Michal

      Yes, indeed both Seppi and Vinci matches were bit of a drama even
      though the results of the tips were spot on.

      It does take time to trade these markets absolutely properly but one
      advice I can give in general is when I tip a back heavy market, make
      sure that player does not have a huge loss even after you trade out.
      You always want your loss to be minimal on the player who is tipped.

      All our EXTRA HEAVY MATCH results including yesterday have been 100%
      spot on so far. Strategy wise the Vinci match was definitely dramatic.
      One method is trading out early and waiting for the first set. So in
      this situation Cornet having won meant you had to immediately lay
      Cornet. This would have neutralized some of those early losses. There
      were some matches I didn’t tip yesterday that I traded after watching
      the scenarios. One was the Serena match, the screenshot of which you
      can see on the site.

      Overall however, I feel there were enough opportunities throughout
      both Seppi and Vinci matches so if you had taken them you would not
      have been in a loss.

      Thanks for your comment mate and good luck!

  • Michal Posted March 27, 2013 12:12 am

    Thanks for your answer Patrick I really appreciate your honesty and help!
    I managed only 4,5% loss of my stake on Vinci game-something was matched on 1.17 something I closed during see saw stage and last 10% of stake when Vinci odds were about even. If I would see 1.17 odds not that early in game of course I woud close there!
    In both games our tips were worse players in first set so I felt its good to close. But I will leave something on tip in future!

    On Seppi I have lost 19% of the original stake. In hinsight I see it could be lower.
    Radwanska and Jancovic games were easy and I made 12% and 13% and if not Vinci being Extra heavy I would not have overall loss.
    Today it was proof again that it´s good to leave emotions out of trading. Almagro had rocket start (as he does and I forgot that) so I had to close about half of my stake to tune it down but I’m proud of myself I took on Gasquet after he was broken twice. He is more matured player nowadays, he had good game, looked energized and stats were there too. There wasn’t much to loose.
    I closed it during the first set kept something on Gasquet and left the match with 1% loss.Considering first set I think it’s not that bad no?
    Can I ask why you didn’t put Berdych in heavy??)I did put on him about 75 % of my normal heavy stake because I felt good about this match and it was too easy)

    Thanks

    • Patrick Ross Posted March 27, 2013 11:55 am

      Hi Michal

      Indeed you are spot on in about everything that you said. For the
      second day in a row, our result is right but our player started very
      poorly which meant again, that we had to trade this one out. But after
      that very dramatic first set, where Gasquet odds reached 4 at one
      stage and Almagro from 1.3 it reached 3.5, it was almost an
      unbelievable see-saw affair.

      Nevertheless, trading out when it was 3-0 against Gasquet early, would
      have meant we would have had enough opportunities in the second and
      third set. Gasquet overall was the better player by the end and hence
      did deserve to win but credit to Almagro, he really played good!

      Vinci match indeed it reached below 1.2 as you said, but we missed the
      1.15 mark which was by around 2 or 3 decimals, very unlucky against us
      in the start!

      I didn’t put Berdych in the BH just out of a bit concern that he had a
      3 setter against Falla which he should have lost! Still I did tip him
      and Gasquet in the hot tips section at the bottom of the tips..

      Thanks again for your comment mate!

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