Monday’s Tips
WTA:
1. Flipkens v Tomljanovic:
S: Lay Flipkens @ 1.35, back@ 1.5
2. Li v Muguruza:
S: Lay Li@ 1.22, back @ 1.35
ATP
3. Raonic v Querrey:
S: Back Raonic @ 1.58, lay @ 1.35
4. Isner v Cilic:
S: Back Cilic @ 1.57, lay @ 1.4
BACK HEAVY:
5. Radwanska v Stephens:
BH on Radwa @ 1.32, lay @ 1.2
6. Cirstea v Jankovic:
BH on Jankovic @ 1.92, lay @ 1.7
7. Seppi v Bellucci:
BH on Seppi @ 1.53, lay @ 1.3
BACK EXTRA HEAVY:
Been a while since I gave an EXTRA HEAVY match so here it is:
8. Vinci v Cornet:
Back Vinci @ 1.32, lay @ 1.15
My hot tips: Vinci, Seppi, Jankovic, Radwanska and CIlic
I have given an EXTRA HEAVY match after sometime, good luck with it!
Cheers..
4 Comments
I was trading BH and extra heavy and it was a bummer. Looking at Seppi stats I had to bail out during first set he was nowhere near taking a lead and was lucky not be broken more than once. Extra heavy match Vinci was crushed in first set right after 0.3K was matched at 1.16 and 1.3K at 1.17. But I know there are some inconsistencies to be expected and I believe you have solid edge in long run Patrick.
All the best!
Hi Michal
Yes, indeed both Seppi and Vinci matches were bit of a drama even
though the results of the tips were spot on.
It does take time to trade these markets absolutely properly but one
advice I can give in general is when I tip a back heavy market, make
sure that player does not have a huge loss even after you trade out.
You always want your loss to be minimal on the player who is tipped.
All our EXTRA HEAVY MATCH results including yesterday have been 100%
spot on so far. Strategy wise the Vinci match was definitely dramatic.
One method is trading out early and waiting for the first set. So in
this situation Cornet having won meant you had to immediately lay
Cornet. This would have neutralized some of those early losses. There
were some matches I didn’t tip yesterday that I traded after watching
the scenarios. One was the Serena match, the screenshot of which you
can see on the site.
Overall however, I feel there were enough opportunities throughout
both Seppi and Vinci matches so if you had taken them you would not
have been in a loss.
Thanks for your comment mate and good luck!
Thanks for your answer Patrick I really appreciate your honesty and help!
I managed only 4,5% loss of my stake on Vinci game-something was matched on 1.17 something I closed during see saw stage and last 10% of stake when Vinci odds were about even. If I would see 1.17 odds not that early in game of course I woud close there!
In both games our tips were worse players in first set so I felt its good to close. But I will leave something on tip in future!
On Seppi I have lost 19% of the original stake. In hinsight I see it could be lower.
Radwanska and Jancovic games were easy and I made 12% and 13% and if not Vinci being Extra heavy I would not have overall loss.
Today it was proof again that it´s good to leave emotions out of trading. Almagro had rocket start (as he does and I forgot that) so I had to close about half of my stake to tune it down but I’m proud of myself I took on Gasquet after he was broken twice. He is more matured player nowadays, he had good game, looked energized and stats were there too. There wasn’t much to loose.
I closed it during the first set kept something on Gasquet and left the match with 1% loss.Considering first set I think it’s not that bad no?
Can I ask why you didn’t put Berdych in heavy??)I did put on him about 75 % of my normal heavy stake because I felt good about this match and it was too easy)
Thanks
Hi Michal
Indeed you are spot on in about everything that you said. For the
second day in a row, our result is right but our player started very
poorly which meant again, that we had to trade this one out. But after
that very dramatic first set, where Gasquet odds reached 4 at one
stage and Almagro from 1.3 it reached 3.5, it was almost an
unbelievable see-saw affair.
Nevertheless, trading out when it was 3-0 against Gasquet early, would
have meant we would have had enough opportunities in the second and
third set. Gasquet overall was the better player by the end and hence
did deserve to win but credit to Almagro, he really played good!
Vinci match indeed it reached below 1.2 as you said, but we missed the
1.15 mark which was by around 2 or 3 decimals, very unlucky against us
in the start!
I didn’t put Berdych in the BH just out of a bit concern that he had a
3 setter against Falla which he should have lost! Still I did tip him
and Gasquet in the hot tips section at the bottom of the tips..
Thanks again for your comment mate!
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