Li Na vs Azarenka
I personally thought Azarenka odds will be lower to back on betfair
but I am guessing its high as 1.75 because of the fact she has
suffered heat issues twice already in this tournament. Li however has
looked as smooth as a boomerang flying through her opponents!
Simple strategy would be to Lay Azarenka. There is a confidence issue
here for me, because again, if Azarenka serves well Li may lose in 2
sets. The safest way to lay is to hope Aza breaks Li Na first. As soon
as she breaks lay her for 100 or 200 units. I predict her serve will
be fluctuating throughout the match. However, if Li serves well she
may win in 2 as well. This match for me is literally about who can get
the first serve percentage more so watch out the first serve
statistics on the aussie open website as that will be a good indicator
on how to trade this one.
I personally don’t expect Li to win in 2 eventhough that’s possible. A
3 setter is likely and hence, you can lay the winner of the first set
after waiting for the set to finish. Do not lay heavy on Li if she
wins the first set; take that as a warning because her form says she
may well beat Aza in 2. Lay just enough to be in profit if the worst
Summarizing the above, I would just say there are 3 possible ways to trade here.
Application for 1st strategy: Lay Aza at the start at 1.76 for 70
units (liabiity 53 units) back her at 2.3 (going for rather low odds
here due to safety issues) for 53 units, The profit is around 16
Application for 2nd strategy: Wait for Aza to break Li first (this
condition MUST be satisfied in order for this strategy to be applied).
If Azarenka takes a supposedly 2-0 or lead, its likely her odds will
shoot down to around 1.5. Lay her at 1.5 for 100 units (liability 50),
back her at the above 2.3 price again for 65 units. Profit is around
36 units here!
Application for 3rd strategy: Lay the winner of the first set. (If you
wish you can wait for that player to break again and then lay, which
may not happen but its not the worst choice to wait for one more
possible break, I leave that decision in your hands). Hence,
supposedly if Azarenka has won the first set, the odds likely will be
in the 1.25-1.35 range. Let’s assume it is 1.3. Lay Aza here for 150
(rather heavy) , liability is 45, back her at 2.3 as above for 85
units. Profit roughly is around 66 units.
I am not so confident personally on how this match will go because
both are great players and also grand slam champions. But if I were to
pick who would start well first I would go for Li Na. The above
examples are all laying azarenka. Hence I feel the chance of one or
more of these happening are high!
This match is especially good for scalping in li’s favour especially in
the first set I feel. For eg. Let’s assume Li has served the first
game, Maybe she has got broken maybe she gave break points or won the
game, nevertheless, when Azarenka serves, always lay her. If you look
at the serve motion, quickness, return speed, Li is better for me in
all those categories. In azarenka’s favour it is the RALLY LENGTH. If
the rally goes on, you have to hope more chance of Azarenka winning
them. Hence everytime Azarenka serves, lay her price. Everytime Li
serves, I feel its better to leave it alone as the scalping maybe
In relation to my yesterday’s federer prediction, well done to all
those who followed my safe strategy where I asked you to wait for the
end of the first set and lay the winner of that. I predicted if
federer loses the first set, its likely murray will win in 5 which is
exactly what happened. If federer had won that set he could have won I
feel. Unlucky my man Roger! This is another reason why the FIRST SET
is so CRUCIAL in tennis especially in grandslams It pretty much
dictates at times in whose favour the match will go!
Good luck with my prediction for today’s match for the women’s crown!