1. Tipsarevic v Ferrer: Successful (A really tough match for Ferrer
but he was the better player!)
2. Stakhovsky/Youzhny v Dodig/Melo: Successful (This was successful
early on but was not worth BHing as there were no live streams I
believe)
3. Huey/Inglot v Granollers/Lopez: Unsuccessful (This was a shock upset)
4. Gasquet v Raonic: Successful (Raonic got broken early making this
successful. What a match!!)
5. Giorgi v Vinci: Successful
6. Riske v Hantuchova: Unsuccessful
7. Ivanovic v Azarenka: To be played later!
Overall: 6 matches considered, 4 / 6 Successful – 66%
HOT TIP: 1 given which was successful!
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3 Comments
Why did you say Tipsarevic v Ferrer: Successful ? Because Ferrer price went around 1.65 when he lost the serve, so would be exit with red http://postimg.org/image/asgiaus65/.
Thanks for your comment.
Indeed Ferrer odds went up early on but in no way was it even close to a 40% trade out ‘EXIT POINT’. The corresponding ‘40% trade out in decimals’ for the Ferrer price which was ‘1.3 back’ was around ‘2.2 lay’ price. This means Ferrer odds had to hit 2.2 to get this market traded out early which was never the case.
On the contrary, Ferrer winning the first set and being dominant early on in the 2nd would have easily let you trade out with a green without any major problems.
Also please note one break up or one break down is not how the stats work. First of all, I generally advise delaying trades. I only consider matches unsuccessful if a player is completely outplayed in the first set. On top of these, please do note as well that this match was a suggested only for LOW STAKES. There is no point in trading out a market if your stakes are low very early on in tennis. You have to use your intuition as well as your other reasons for trading out. Obviously if there is a major injury concern I always ask the market to be traded out. On the contrary nothing of that sort happened here and moreover it was very early in the match hence it should definitely be deemed ‘successful’.
I’ll write a an article in the next day or two to provide more clarity and will send the link to all members…
Good luck and thanks again
Patrick
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