All profits are calculated for a Back/Lay LIABILITY Stake of 10 units.
May 22: ( – 4.45 units)
1. Mchale v Diyas: TIP: Back Mchale@1.33, lay@1.14
Successful: +1.65 units
2. Petkovic v Puig: TIP: Back Petko@1.43, lay@1.16
Unsuccessful: -4 units
3. Garcia v Knapp: TIP: Back Garcia@1.7, lay@1.35
Successful: +2.55 units
4. Svitolina v Barthel: TIP: Back Barthel@1.6, lay@1.3
Unsuccessful: -4 units
5. Vesely v Melzer: TIP: Lay Melzer@1.96, back@2.6
Successful: +2.6 units
6. Karlovic v Monaco: TIP: Lay Monaco@1.31, back@1.55
Successful: +5 units
7. Seppi v Istomin: TIP: Lay Seppi@1.6, back@1.85
Successful: +2.25 units
8. Espinosa v Giorgi: TIP: Lay Giorgi@1.58, back@2
Unsuccessful: -4 units
(Espinosa indeed won this but started badly unfortunately!)
9. Goerges v Keys: TIP: Lay Keys@1.87, back@2.6
Unsuccessful: -4 units
10. Shvedova v Bouchard: TIP: Lay Bouchard@1.3, back@2
Unsuccessful: -4 units
(As predicted this was a pretty tough match for Bouchard but I have to say she was the better player here!)
11. Mayer v Montanes: TIP: Lay Mayer@1.95, back@2.5
Unsuccessful: -4 units
12. Tursunov v Gulbis: TIP: Lay Gulbis@1.34, back@1.65
Successful: +5.5 units
(Tursunov lost the first set but he had many chances to break Gulbis early on. This did make Gulbis odds jump so indeed this can be made successful! Also worth pointing out Tursunov had his chances to win this match easily!)
13. Isner v Delbonis: TIP: Lay Isner@1.7, back@2.4
Successful: +4 units
14. Simon v Berlocq: TIP: Lay Simon@1.98, back@2.4
Unsuccessful: -4 units
Overall: 7/14 successful: -4.45 units
Espinosa and Montanes let us down in the first set but I think considering 14 matches and only 7 of them being successful, we did great not to lose more than 5 units here! Had a couple of points gone our way, it would have been a massive day.
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6 Comments
Patrick, only one correction, for me the Karlovic v Monaco was a losing trade.
I laid at 1.29, a little bit lower than the advised odds in the trading tip.
At the second game, Monaco lead by 0:30, at this point the stop loss activated. This was a very unlucky trade, because Karlovic fight back from here and won the first set.
Indeed Karlovic was down 0-30 but this was the 2nd game (his FIRST SERVICE GAME!!). If you are telling me that a 0-30 means the trade is over, then I have to disagree. We are talking about one of the best servers probably in the history of Tennis here. It is indeed possible the stop loss maybe activated here but there were enough opportunities to get back in the market, even in the third set! This hence cannot be deemed unsuccessful. Monaco was a huge favourite in this match and I had my reasons to lay him as I had felt the bookies had priced him wrong here, which indeed turned out to be true.
As an advice, next time, give some weight to the underdogs especially if I’m tipping them to play well. You simply cannot exit out a whole trade after 5 or 6 points. That is not trading really. More importantly, if you had chosen to delay and trade here, your profits would have been higher than mentioned in the stats. Overall, Karlovic proved good enough as a challenge for Monaco throughout this match and hence this definitely was a successful tip..
these results pages used to have a link to the results spreadsheet.
It will be back on the next stats page…just had to remove it to correct some earlier mathematical errors which carried forward so is taking me some time to fix. Only very minor but will have it finished this morning…
“It is indeed possible the stop loss maybe activated here but there were enough opportunities to get back in the market, even in the third set!”
When SP hit, the trade is lost for me. Many times when I tried to recover the loss I lost much more, because players performance could change in every game. So this would be gambling. Maybe I have luck and I could restore some part of my loss, or If I have bud luck I will lose more.
In my experience many times a good quality player lost the whole match. If I tried to recover my SP loss, I would lose much more. So I stopped to chase my loses with additional trades if the SP is hit.
(In this match I didn’t delay and trade because this was a mens game and low odds game. )
I can understand your points. Sometimes it’s difficult to make up the losses but in this particular match there was lots of opportunities. I disagree with your point on gambling – because if you call this gambling then the initial trade is also gambling. But it’s trading. You’re reason for backing a player again in a match after a trade has been lost must be based on some intuition or knowledge about the game or the player. So it’s not gambling – it’s educated trading. Bad luck sometimes plays its part in trading no doubt. If you don’t have good reason for trading again in a match, then you shouldn’t trade again. But most times there are further opportunities.
Thanks for the comments Kristof. Keep me updated on your progress. Patrick.
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