Tennis Trading Tips Thursday 25th April

tennis

Todays Tips:

All times are UK/Irish and are subject to change..

BRD Nastase ATP

1. 11:00 – Mayer v Goffin:

Back Mayer @1.84, lay @1.6

Barcelona Open ATP

2. 10:00 – Chardy v Monaco:

Back Monaco @1.3, lay @1.14

3. 11:15 – Klizan v Kohli

Lay Kohli @1.75, back @1.9

4. 13:45 – Raonic v Gulbis

Back Raonic @1.74, lay @1.55

5. 12:30 – Nishikori v Ramos

Back Nishi @1.6, lay @1.4

Grand Prix de Sar WTA:

6. 12:00 – Pironkova v Dominguez Lino

Lay Dominguez @1.5, back @1.8

7. 13:15 – Puchkova v Soler Espinosa

Back Soler @1.45, lay @1.2

Porshe WTA

8. 11:00 – Lucic v Li

Lay Li @1.11, back @1.3

(If Li wins first set easily, consider laying her at a low lay price!)

9. 12:30 – Kerber v Pavlyuchenkova

Back Kerber @1.66, lay @1.4

10. 13:15 – Ivanovic v Petrova

Lay Ivanovic @1.56, back @1.75

BACK HEAVY

11. 12:15 – Youzhny v Hanescu

Back [email protected], lay @1.5

12. 12:00 – Kanepi v Minella

Back Kanepi @1.23, lay @1.1

13. 12:00 – Shvedova v Suarez Navarro

Shvedova was amazing yesterday and hence I’ve to put this match in the BH category!

Lay Suarez @1.68, back @1.9

Good luck for the 13 matches…

3 Comments

  • Michal Posted April 25, 2013 3:30 pm

    Youzhny 1,54 at most… lost in 2 straight sets. Patrick, 2 out of 3 from back heavy games is not even enough for recovering stakes!
    Using 100€ liability in each match as I did today yielded results like this:

    1. Shvedova laying 148€ (100€ liability) at 1,68 and closing at 1,9 yielded 16€ profit. But to achieve this Shvedova had to come back from a break + face another BP for a double break!

    2.Kanepi backing 100€ at 1,23 laying early on at 1,1 yielded 11€.
    This was without trouble as she broke her opponent in first game. She has lost the game eventually.

    3. Youzhny backing 100€ at 1,7. He was broken first when 2-2 and went downhill since then. When closing and laying 74€ at 2,3 we have 26% loss of 26€ which is still good comparing to closing at the end of the first set at 3,1 and a 45€ loss.

    So 16+11-26 = 1€ profit if closing Youzhny still very early in the first set or 16+11-45= -18€ loss if closing Youzhny completely after the first set.

    So Patrick for this to work you have to be much more accurate to be profitable again!

    Thanks!

    • Patrick Ross Posted April 27, 2013 7:03 am

      Hi Michal

      Thanks for your comment and analysis of the BH situations for
      yesterday. Indeed, its true that Youzhny loss was a rather
      disappointing one to our stats. The reason being, he never was in this
      match. I was confident on him playing well as he played extremely good
      against Djokovic in Monte Carlo and was happy with the prediction
      hence.

      Now let’s look into your conclusion about the net profit and net loss.

      First of all, I never advise to straight away jump into any trade with
      my strategies. You can always delay your trades looking at how each
      player serves. The advantage here is if for the reason our player
      get’s broken first, it maybe a better time to back him considering I
      tipped that particular player. Basically, please take the tips as an
      extra advice for your overall trade. Honestly I don’t even mind if you
      go completely against my tips as long as you keep the player that I
      tipped on to a minimal loss! This is due to my strike rates. You
      simply cannot ignore the facts that the BH tips have won more and that
      the BH Extra Heavy tip results have been 100 % successful so far. My
      advice is always to keep the losses low with my strategy and in the
      long run you will make profit and not gamble away your money. It is
      completely upto you to trade out early, if you feel our player isn’t
      doing well and also completely ok if you leave the player on for a bit
      more as long as you have very good reasons to do it !

      So here’s the next thing, why don’t we look into our BH tip results
      for the last few days:

      On 23rd I advised considering one match for BH tip which was successful

      On 24th I advised considering 3 matches for BH and all 3 were successful

      On 25th, out of the 3, Youzhny should have been the only one that
      would have hurt us, as Shvedova match, as you pointed out, the loss
      could have been minimized, considering my tip as the base of your
      trade.

      And Today, the tip on Rosol was spot on as well.

      So basically out of the 8 matches suggested for BH in the last 4 days
      only one has really hurt us and that was Youzhny. We are going to have
      a few bumps on the road as that is unavoidable as no one can predict
      everything 100% but my objective is to come close to that 100.
      Personally I’d take 70 – 80% as a very decent stat.

      Remember, I am putting my reputation on the line when I’m writing
      stuff. It’s not that I just give a write out in 2 minutes and send you
      guys out. If I am tipping someone high there are good reasons for it.
      I have followed tennis for many years and hence I’ve been successful
      due to that knowledge personally.

      A month or so back I had tipped and even produced a screenshot of
      Horacio Zeballos in my outright market (feel free to check it) who was
      the only player I tipped to win. He beat Nadal in the final, Rafa’s
      first loss after returning from injury. I can tell you no one would
      boldly tip an outsider like Zeballos in an outright to win in a
      tournament with Rafa in it. Hence I do have good reasons at times for
      my tips eventhough our players maybe completely outclassed which was
      sadly evident in the Youzhny match.

      Good luck in all future trades 🙂

  • Michal Posted April 27, 2013 11:19 am

    Hey Patrick,
    really appreciate you made my critical comment visible and answered it even when it is a bit later.
    As I understand there is difference when you put a tip in BH section and when you say it can be considered for bh. As I understand when you say it can be considered for BH you are still not confident enough to put it specifically in BH section so I think it’s not right to put it in same category as BH tips. This week you started with BH tips on Thursday which was those tips discussed in my first comment and on Friday you had one more successful in Rosol making it 3 out of 4 for this week so far. 75% but still not quite over 90% which you claim on membership signup page.

    That said I still think for 10€ a month it’s still lot of value for money. As you said I will use you tips more as an advice for BH tips and Extra BH. As it was for example with Williams Sharapova final when Serena started at 1.3 and went to 5.xx before winning it and making your EBH successful again. So it’s better to start to back when she is in trouble and not to sit on 1.3 with 300€ sweating and bitting off all nails)

    PS: please look up stats page for 25/26th, as of now it says page not found …

    Good luck in your day!

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