1. Veic vs Haase:
Haase is one of my favourite players. If he serves ok he always has a
chance against even good players. Since Zagreb is a hard court, I am
guessing his odds at 1.5 will go down. Veic is not a consistent server
but otherwise has an OK all round game. I expect Haase odds to shoot
down and my confidence is good in this regard.
Strategy to apply: Back Haase heavy at 1.5 , lay for a profit in the 1.25 range!
You can follow any examples from some of my Australian open strategies
on how to achieve this.
2. Kavcic vs Bedene:
Bedene has been a really tough player in the Chennai Aircel Open in
India recently. He beat Haase in the round matches and gave a very
impressive show. I expect him to play well here. Kavcic is not a bad
player but Bedene by form will do better for me!
Strategy: Back (not too heavy, lets say 30 -40 units) on Bedene at 1.7
on betfair. Lay at 1.45-1.5 ish range! Its a rather predictable
situation hence profit should be easy.
3. Dodig vs Becker:
This could be the game of the day if not the game of the tournament.
Dodig is the favourite at 1.72 here. I really get the feeling that is
because he is the home player. Hence I disagree with the odds. Becker
eventhough he hasnt won a very big match recently, he has played well.
I expect that odds to go up on Dodig hence. Also the key point is,
Dodig probably will show weakness from his Davis Cup loss yesterday to
Strategy: Lay Dodig at 1.72 (it can be heavy here as I feel confident
that odds should shoot up!) Back him at 2 – 2.1 range to be safe!
4. Karlovic vs Dmitrov:
Dmitrov odds are around 1.4 for me. I think that should be laid at the
start personally. Karlovic has historically done well in his home
tournament. Hence even if Dmitrov wins, I expect at least the first
set to be a tight one.
Strategy: Lay Dmitrov at 1.4 (for around 20-40). Back him at 1.5 – 1.55 range.
The profit won’t be huge here as you are trading out at a closer point
from the lay price. Still I think the above may happen. You can
increase it to 1.7 to 1.8. Anything more can be risky but do it
according to the match statistics.
Alternatively you can wait out the first set completely and decide how
to proceed. Personally for me if Dmitrov wins the first set, he will
win the second as well. If Karlovic wins the first, this could be a 3
setter in Dmitrov’s favour!
5. Lacko vs Cipolla:
For me odds are right on Lacko here at 1.33.
Hence follow the back heavy, lay low strategy. I expect an easy win
for Lucas Lacko!
6. Rosol vs Kubot:
This could be a cracking match. Odds are 1.9 on Rosol that pretty much
says it could be flip of a coin. I expect a possible 3 setter here.
Maybe the best possible prediction I can give here is over games
market for any one who bets in bookies rather betfair.
However from a strictly trading point of view, for me, Rosol odds
should go down.
Strategy: Backing heavy and laying TOO LOW wont be good here. As there
is a question of what price to lay at. Hence back Rosol at 1.9 and
laying at 1.6 is a much safer method!
7. Kamke vs Baghdatis:
Odds are 1.18 on Baghdatis. That says he should pretty much thrash
Kamke. However I am against this odds and hence this could be a big
My best strategy here would be to lay a small amount lets say for 50
units (Liability around 10). You can trade out if Baghdatis price
jumps to around 1.5 or 1.6. If in the worst case scenario baghdatis
wins rather comfortably, lay him once more , the odds you may get
maybe around 1.07. Still not a bad laying price. Hence lay for another
50 units (Liab: around 5). However dont do this if Kamke’s serve
percentage has gone from bad to worse as that is pretty much gambling
money! The total liability in the above example is around 15 units
while you are chasing a profit of 100 units!
Kamke is not the worst of players hence concentrate on his serve stats
here and return % as that could indicate how to trade this market.
However, do not lay Baghdatis heavy at any time in this match unless
you see an injury concern as he may still beat Kamke in 2 sets!