Pinnacle Trading Tips 19 & 20 + Post Game Analysis

PINNACLE TIP #19

MATCH: MURRAY (BRITAIN) VS BERDYCH (CZECH REP.)

EVENT: ATP SHANGHAI ROLEX MASTERS

START TIME: 13:00 UK TIME

TIP: BACK MURRAY @1.4, LAY @1.12

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 4% TOTAL (3% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:

Berdych is simply one tough player to beat when playing at his best. He has a very decent serve and some knockout power in those forehands making him hard to deal with. However, if there is one weakness in his game, it has to be consistency and patience. That’s where Andy Murray comes in whose game is all about defense and can turn around any rally from a defensive position into an attacking one.

These two have faced each other 11 times with Murray edging with a 6-5 lead. Important to note that both encounters in 2015 went to Murray at the Australian Open and Miami. .

I agree with the bookies that Andy should be a big favourite here and could very well win this match comfortably.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

The most important factor to BACK Murray today is the slower pace of these courts in Shanghai. It very much suits Andy. Indeed it was no surprise that he dominated the previous match against the big serving John Isner after losing the first set on a tie-break.

Even if Andy starts poorly today, I would stick with him to come away victorious. Personally, I would prefer going for a 2 set win for the Scot.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Our tick-difference for this tip is quite small as Andy is a big favourite. However, this is a confidence oriented tip that makes it worthwhile to invest in. High stakes can therefore be considered.

Simply back Andy @1.4 with 4% of your bank and lay @1.12. Delaying the trade to fetch better prices on Andy is NOT suggested for this tip, as it could be 1 way traffic from the very beginning.

Your potential profit is around 25% of the stake

Worst case scenario:

An easy 2 set win for Andy would be my best bet for this match. However, if Berdych happens to start better and goes on to win the 1st set, I suggest backing Andy @2.75 with your remaining 1%.

Normally I would recommend trading out before the third set begins. For this tip though, there is reason to believe that Andy is going to come out on top eventually. Therefore, you can consider leaving the trade on till our target LAY odds of 1.12 is hit.

Remember, any profits of 20-25% is always good to green out!

PINNACLE TIP #20

MATCH: M.GASPARYAN (RUSSIA) VS A.FRIEDSAM (GERMANY)

EVENT: WTA LINZ

START TIME: 13:00 UK TIME

TIP: BACK GASPARYAN @1.85, LAY @1.45

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : CAN BE CONSIDERED

PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:

Both are quite aggressive players by nature.
While Friedsam may possess the slightly better serve, one factor favouring Gasparyan is the single handed ‘Wawrinka like’ backhand she possesses. That has to be a big advantage for the Russian today. In fact, in her previous match against a very tough Giorgi, Gasparyan played extremely well showing her variety of weapons.

By form, Gasparyan has a 7-3 win record in her last 10 matches compared to Friedsam’s 4-6 losing record. Hence, eventhough Friedsam has a 2-0 head to head advantage,I agree Gasparyan looks the right favourite for this match.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

While the start of this match could be tricky to predict, Gasparyan winning eventually looks more probable. No doubt Friedsam has a lot of talent but she does have the habit of choking with big leads.

Overall, the more reliable player looks like Gasparyan in my eyes and hence I’m predicting a win for the Russian today.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Our primary scenario would be Gasparyan starting better.
By Backing @1.85 and Laying @1.45, the potential profit for a 2% back stake would be around 27% for this tip. However, considering Friedsam’s general serving ability, delaying this trade at the beginning can be considered and it is quite possible you could fetch a price of 2.00 or slightly more on the Russian early on.

Consider trading out once the target is hit as a Friedsam comeback cannot be entirely ignored..

Worst case scenario:

If Friedsam runs away with the first set, backing the remaining 1% on Gasparyan at prices of 3.5 or above would seem the right option.

If you have fetched at least 25% profit before the 3rd set begins,consider trading out the market.

Remember, any profits of 20-25% is always good to green out!

ANALYSIS

It looked like the perfect start to the day as Murray breezed past Berdych without any major issues to give us our 7th consecutive win. However what transpired later was the abysmal display of Gasparyan against Friedsam. She pretty much got hammered from start to finish!

Still, it must be noted that this is only our 4th loss in 20 tips, a very healthy 80% strike rate.

Including my trial tips that makes it 7 losses in 47 tips giving a very consistent 85% strike rate!!

Patrick