Trading Tips Stats Friday 5th April Venus v Lepchenko: Unsuccessful

As I predicted Lepchenko came back strongly to force a 3rd set and was
even up a break in it. Strategy was unlucky against us as Venus
started brighter. Still, I did warn trading out early on Venus if she
looked too good…

2. Safarova v Cirstea: Successful

After being broken first Safarova stormed to win the first set!

3. Simon v Monaco: Successful

I am going to call this successful only because its a low stakes match
and a best of 5 setter. Monaco having looked to win the first set
easily blew it. Well, almost. Simon came back strongly and the odds
did hit the 1.4 mark. After losing the tie break though, it was a one
sided affair in Monaco’s favour!

4. Querrey v Troicki: Successful

5. Kerber v Morita: Successful easily

6. Kirilenko v Radwanska: Successful easily

7. Pavlyuchenkova v Davis: Successful easily

8. Niculescu v Babos: Successful easily

Successful: 7 / 8


9. Mattek Sands v Keys: Unsuccessful

I’m afraid I’ve to call this unsuccessful as eventhough the odds hit
the 1.6 and even went less than 1.5 at one stage, Mattek Sands had to
come from a double break to make that happen. Hence strategy failed,
however my tip was spot on that odds would go down on Mattek Sands!

10. Berlocq v Tsonga: Successful

I am going to call this successful only for the reason that this was a
5 setter and Tsonga having been a bit unlucky in the first game pretty
much was a different player since.

Successful: 1 / 2

Overall: 8 / 10 Successful = 80 %

Good luck for later..


  • Michal Posted April 7, 2013 11:49 am

    Hi Patrick,
    It is not good to call Mattek Sands tip spot on because she has lost the match in two sets so also tip wasn’t correct.
    Strategy wise, yes she hit 1.5 in before end of the first set but it was after odds moved straight from 1.8 to 3.8. If I have to follow the rules regarding to maximum loss I had to bail out and even when I put something on Mattek Sands again (not much because of maximum loss reached) laying at 1,6 or 1,5 will still cover only fraction of my previous losses .
    I think you should call tip successful only if it eventually wins. Because you also advice to keep smaller loss or bigger profit on tip. which works well.
    Last week all your BH tips eventually won so you can afford miss some here and there.
    Tsonga match was nice for me coz I jumped on him at around 1,8 not at the beginning.

    • Patrick Ross Posted April 7, 2013 4:01 pm

      Hi Michal,
      I called the tip spot on because the critical odds were reached, but called the tip unsuccessful due to the fact that it was reached after the strategy failed at the beginning of the match. The tip was therefore correct later in the match but too late,hence unsuccessful. The tips do not predict outright winners, and so I cannot use this variable when deciding if a tip is successful. As always, thanks for the message Michal!!

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